Archive

GOLF

2020

- March

  • 04: Maverick McNealy ov Lucas Glover
  • This is a real mismatch with who’s hot and who’s not. McNealy has been playing really solid golf while Glover continues his fall from grace (if he ever had grace). In their last 5 tournaments, McNeal’s worst finish is better than Glovers best finish. Glovers best finish is 49th, McNealy’s worst finish is 37th. Fading Glover in these head to heads has been very profitable, I’ll be happy to keep doing it.

  • 04: Lanto Griffin ov Matthew Wolff
  • Another great fade in head to heads has been Matthew Wolff who just isn’t real good right now. His last 3 finishes are MC, MC, and 58th. Griffin went through a bit of rough couple weeks, but has rebounded over his last 3 tournaments finishing 37th, 29th, and 9th the last 3 tournaments. Neither has played this tournament.

  • 04: Bubba Watson ov Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick finished second here last year, but that hasn’t told the real story of him. He’s not great usually when playing in the US. Played here twice this year, finished 30th, and 60th, and then Bubba was 19 spots better than him in Mexico. Bubba has looked great this year outside from a MC at the Genesis…I like what I’ve seen from Bubba, he’s got decent course history here, I like him to be top 20 this week.

  • 04: Sungjae Im ov Brooks Koepka
  • This goes against my rule about fading a random winner, but I don’t think SungJae Im is a random winner. He comes from a different culture, he travels with his parents, and he’s appreciative of everything he has. He has a bizarre travel schedule, and seems to love it and not be bothered by it. See this article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0...

    I don’t see a let down, I see him as almost a robot right now. He’s durable, and he finished 3rd here last year. Meanwhile, Brooks is really struggling this year, and he’s been a great fade. He also has missed the cut the last 2 times he’s played here

  • 04: Charl Schwartzel ov Ian Poulter
  • Schwartzel was really struggling at the beginning of the year off the wrist injury, but it appears he’s turned the corner and has 2 straight great finishes (5th and 17th) his last 2 tournaments. I like Poulter, but getting Charl at +125 is incredible value seeing as Charl beat Poulter last week and Poulter has nothing inside the top 23 at this tournament in the last 4 year

- February

  • 19: Dustin Johnson ov Jon Rahm
  • Both guys have been playing very good this year, but DJ has finished ahead of Rahm the only 2 tournaments they’ve played in together in 2020, and DJ’s record here is incredible, and Rahm’s is not. DJ has finished ahead of Rahm every year, and last year Rahm finished 45th, and the year before 20th. DJ’s total score in 3 years here is -47. Ram’s is -17. That’s a 30 shot difference.

  • 19: Sergio Garcia ov Gary Woodland
  • I like Woodland, but he’s not been very good the last two tournaments we’ve seen him in finishing 40th and MC. Sergio has been decent, 37th last week, 6, 23, 8 the previous 3 tournaments, and Sergio does really good here and Woodland doesn’t. Sergio has finished ahead of Woodland in all 3 years, Sergio’s worst finish at this tournament is 12th…Woodland’s best finish is 17th.

  • 19: Louis Oosthuizen ov Paul Casey
  • For this particular play I’m throwing out past performances at this tournament and focusing on what my eyes have seen this year. This year I’ve seen Louis play maybe the most consistent stretch of his career, and I see Paul Casey starting to fade. Louis hasn’t finished outside the top 25 in his last 5 tournaments, where Paul Casey’s last 2 finishes are 37th and 64th. Casey has much better course history here, but I trust what I see and I see Louis playing way better than Paul Casey.

  • 19: Kurt Kityama ov Chez Reavie
  • Chez had a good finish last week in 10th, but I don’t buy it, before that he had nothing inside the top 20, and 3 missed cuts in a row. Meanwhile, Kityama has quietly been playing really good on the European Tour finishing 6th at Dubai, and then 18th at Pebble Beach. Chez has horrible results here finishing 52nd in 2018 and second to last place last year 65th. Kityama is the better golfer, I expect a top 30 finish from Kurt this week.

  • 19: Erik Van Rooyen ov Francesco Molinari
  • Van Rooyen missed the cut last week for the first time on the PGA Tour…he still easily beat Molinari. Molinari has yet to make a cut this year, he’s just terrible right now, I’ll keep fading him. Molinari had a decent finish last year finishing in 17th, but this year is a different Molinari. He’s bad. Van Rooyen played last year and finished 36th…I think if he does that again he’ll beat Molinari.

  • 19: Lucas Herbert ov Lucas Glover
  • A guy from the European Tour vs a guy from the PGA Tour battling it out in Mexico. What a sport. Herbert won a few weeks ago, and it appears he isn’t just a random winner. He played the two weeks after that and finished 27th and 12th. Lucas Glover has one finish better than 27th in his last 10 tournaments and that was at the Shriners. In 2020 in the three tournaments he’s played in Glover has a MC, 49th and 50th. He’s been terrible in head to heads, he’s been terrible on the golf course, I expect more of the same this week.

  • 12: Bubba Watson ov Brooks Koepka
  • I’m still not convinced that Brooks is healthy and totally engaged in this season, but Bubba certainly looks healthy and engaged in the season. Bubbas last 2 finishes are 3rd and 6th, Brook’s last 2 finishes are 17th, 34th. And Bubba LOVES this place. He’s a 3 time winner, he was 15th here last year, Koepka has only played here once and missed the cut in 2017. I get the golfer who’s playing much better, and the golfer who’s better at this course.

  • 12: Charles Howell ov Nick Taylor
  • One of our favorite betting strategies is fading a random winner, and Nick Taylor is definitely a random winner. Hit all kinds of long putts, holed out from bunkers, it was his best tournament ever. I expect some real regression and for him to fall back to earth this week. I’ll happily support Howell who hasn’t played in 3 weeks, but has made the cut 5 times in a row at this tournament and finished 6th last year here. Before that win you have to go all the way back to the ISPS Handa Melbourne World Cup of Golf in 2018 to find the last time Nick Taylor finished inside the top 10.

  • 12: Phil Mickelson ov Jordan Spieth
  • Pretty easy play for me. I’ve been saying for 2 weeks Phil looks great, and I’ve been saying for 2 years Spieth isn’t good. We won betting on Phil last week, we won betting against Spieth last week so I’m happy to bet on Phil and bet against Spieth with this matchup. Spieth played one good round last week, and that was the crazy last round with all the wind. Phil has 2 straight 3rd place finishes, I’m not convinced Spieth is back to being elite, he changed his swing last week, maybe it helps him out, but I’m not convinced it’s helping him this soon.

  • 12: Erik Van Rooyen ov Francesco Molinari
  • I’ve been wanting to fade Molinari, I was hoping to get a better matchup but I’ll cautiously back Van Rooyen this week over Molinari who looks awful. Two straight missed cuts in his last 2 tournaments he’s played in, and he’s terrible at this tournament. He’s played here 5 times, 3 missed cuts, 40th, 52nd. Van Rooyen missed the cut 2 weeks ago, but before that he was solid 37th, 12th, 22nd. Here’s a fun fact about Erik Van Rooyen you’ll only hear on this podcast. Van Rooyen has NEVER missed the cut on the PGA Tour. He’s made the cut in 100% of PGA tournaments he’s played in.

  • 06: Dustin Johnson ov Patrick Cantlay
  • DJ has a great track record here, 7 top 4 finishes in the last 11 tournaments here, and I watched him on the European Tour last week and he looked great. Only finished 2 shots behind the leader and he missed a lot of putts that almost went in, I was very impressed. Last time we saw Cantlay he was finishing 34th at Abu Dhabi, and his last 2 finishes at this tournament are 35th and 48th. I took it at -130 but I wouldn’t play it much lower than that.

  • 06: Daniel Berger ov Jordan Spieth
  • Not a hard bet. Daniel Berger is better than Jordan Spieth right now. Spieth’s last 2 finishes MC, 55th. Burgers last 3 are 38, 29, 9. Interview with Jordan Spieth he talked about how his putting is going away from him, and that putting is the easy part of his game and without that he’s in trouble. He also said he adjusted his grip, and that “It’s an unusual feeling for me and it’s been difficult to trust, especially without having my grip in the perfect place”. He also said it will take 2-3 months to get right. Yikes. I’ll take Berger all day.

  • 06: Matt Kuchar ov Viktor Hovland
  • Hovland was bad last week again missing the cut, not sure what’s going on this him but that’s 3 missed cuts in his last 4 tournaments. Kuchar had a slip up 4 weeks ago missing the cut at the Sony Open, but he’s by far the better golfer right now out of this duo. Kuchar not great history here, but he was 22nd here last year, that would be good enough to beat Hovland right now.

  • 06: Scott Piercy ov Lucas Glover
  • Scott Piercy looked great last week finishing 6th, and has only 1 missed cut in his last 14 tournaments. His last 2 finishes at this tournament are 10th and 20th. We’ve been fading Glover, and for good reason. He was good last year most of the year, and even finished 7th at this tournament, but his game has gone away from him. 49th and missed cut the last 2 tournaments, he’s been a solid bet against in matchups I’ll keep fading him.

  • 06: Pat Perez ov Chez Reavie
  • Chez Reavie has been terrible. 27th at the Tourney of Champions that had 31 golfers in the tournament. MC at the Sony, MC at The American Express, MC at Waste Management. Perez hasn’t missed a cut in 4 months. Course history about the same here, but Perez in much much better form.

  • 06: Phil Mickelson ov Jason Day
  • Phil looked great last week finishing 3rd in Saudi Arabia last week, and I listened to his interview and he sounded very confident going into last week saying his game was rounding into form. He missed the cut the week before but he missed several really short putts that he normally makes that would’ve gotten him into the cut. His last 2 finishes at this tournament are 1st and second, and even though Jason Day has great course history here I’m willing to roll the dice with Phil at +120…you always have the Jason Day back issue that could flare up at any time.

  • 06: Tom Hoge ov Vaughn Taylor
  • Tom Hoge continues his nice run with a 25th finish last week. That’s 4 straight top 25 finishes. History tells us these guys will fall back to earth at some point, but I’ll ride the hot hand now. He has bad course history here, but it looks like he’s done something to improve his game and the results don’t lie. Vaughn Taylor missed the cut last week, 43rd the week before and he hasn’t finished better than 55th the last 3 years here. Going to keep playing The Big Sandwich Tom Hoge while he’s in the zone.

- January

  • 29: Romain Langasque ov Lucas Herbert
  • Betting against the random winner Lucas Herbert. Randomly wins last week, but before that 67, 64, MC. He has two top 14 finishes in his last 21 events. I expect a big let down, this has been a winning strategy for us over the years to fade random winners, and we’ll do it with Romain Langasque who’s been overall better than Herbert recently. 6 straight top 40 finishes including 3 top 30s in that time frame.

  • 29: Graeme Mcdowell ov Jazz Janewatttananond
  • I bet on Jazz last week thinking he was successful on the Asian tour, that should mean he’ll be ok on the Euro Tour. Wrong. He was awful. McDowell wasn’t much better, but he did finished ahead of Jazz, and Mcdowell is just the better golfer.

  • 29: Victor Perez ov Henrik Stenson
  • Perez continues his great play with a 16th last week, Stenson’s game really struggling, 37th last week, even the announcers were saying how Stenson doesn’t look right. Perez easily better than Stenson the last few tourney’s they’ve played in together. Last year Perez finished 13th here, Stenson MC. Love this bet.

  • 29: Bubba Watson ov Tony Finau
  • I can’t explain why Tony Finau struggles so much at this tournament, but he’s missed the cut 4 years in a row. That’s a pretty serious trend. Bubba likes this place, he struggled in 2016, and 2017 when he was dealing with the dreaded Volvik ball switch, but besides those he finished 4th last year, and going game to 2016, he’s finishes were 14, 2, 2, 15, 5. So he’s good here. And as good as Finau has looked, Bubba finished tied with him last week for 6th. I watched a lot of Bubba last week, he looked great…I just love getting plus money with Bubba at a course that Finau really struggles on.

  • 29: Gary Woodland ov Bryson Dechambeau
  • Bryson looked decent last week, and Woodland played terrible but I like supporting good golfers after a random bad week, and I’ll gladly take Woodland who loves this tournament. 7th and a win in his last 2 years here. Bryson didn’t play this last year, and Bryson has to deal with a long trip from Dubai all the way to Arizona. That’s a long trip. Woodland should be refreshed, and on a course he loves, I’ll happily bet on him this week.

  • 29: Justin Thomas ov Jon Rahm
  • I played this earlier in the day at +125, and now it’s down to +100, so I think the value may be gone. I know how good Rahm has been recently, there’s no doubting that, but getting Justin Thomas at plus money is crazy this week. He finished 3rd here last year, Rahm has never been inside the top 5 here. Thomas sat out last week I expect a big time showing from his this week.

  • 29: Tom Hoge ov Andrew Punam
  • I’m really on the fence about this one, but hey…let’s go with it. Hoge has been incredible the last 3 weeks. 12, 5, 6. But this is very uncharacteristic of him. So is he getting lucky, or is he in the zone? Does he continue his amazing run, or does he come crashing back to earth. I’m going to roll with him this week over Andrew Putnam. Putnam has finished 10th and 57th his last 2 weeks, Hoge has finished ahead of him in both weeks, and last year Hoge made the cut and finished 44th, and Putnam missed the cut. Looking at Putnams finishes he’s feast or famine. In his last 27 tournaments he has 7 finishes between 11th and 30th. And in that time span he has 3 top 10s and 9 finishes outside of the top 50. So there’s a lot more bad than good. So I’ll roll with the sandwich, the hot Hoge ov Putnam.

  • 22: Sepp Straka ov Kyle Stanley
  • Kyle Stanley’s 2020 season is off and running. Missed cut at the Sony Open, Missed cut at The American Express. Three out of his 5 rounds 70 or over. Straka better than Stanley at both those tournaments, and last year Kyle Stanley missed the cut here when Straka finished 13th. I get the golfer in better form and the one that played much better at this course last year.

  • 22: Prop at Draftkings
  • It’s juicy at -177 but Ryan Palmer to make the cut is -177. Palmer has finished 13th and 2nd in his last 2 tournaments at this course, and 17th and 4th his last 2 tournaments of 2020. I will not very often recommend making a play at -177, but this bet is a bet that the line is off. It should be -250 at least. So if you're looking at line value, this is a play just to take advantage of a line that should be higher.

  • 22: Keegan Bradley ov Phil Mickelson
  • Anyone see Phil last week? He comes across as a cartoon character now. In his interview he says he’s still hitting bombs, accept there’s no telling where these bombs are going to land. He missed the cut last week, and wasn’t even close to making the cut. Keegan has been playing pretty good, 12th at the Sony Open, 24th at the last WGC event, 13th at the Zozo, and he really likes playing here. 35th, 5th, 4th here the last 3 years.

  • 22: Brendan Steele ov Lucas Glover
  • Lucas Glover has really been struggling, only has 1 decent finish and that was a 9th at the Shriners. Missed the cut last week, 49th at the WGC, 37th at the Zozo. And this week he’s matched up against Brendan Steele, who’s been playing decent. Made the cut last week and finished 43rd, 2nd the week before, and if you look at Brendan Steele’s career he like these January tournaments. 2019 he was clearly injured, missed most of the cuts that year, so I’m throwing that out because he looks healthy. 2018 no finishes outside the top 30 in January, 2017 nothing outside the top 20 in January. He likes these greens, putts well on them, Love this matchup.

  • 22: Victor Perez ov Bryson Dechambeau
  • I said coming into the year I didn’t buy into Bryson Dechambeau and his new body, and last week he was awful shooting +5 in round 2 and missing the cut. And the matchup this week is very tasty with Victor Perez who’s been really good. He finished 2nd last week 20th the previous tournament, then 2nd and 4th the two tournaments before that. Dechambea won this tourney last year, but he was playing much better, he’s a different golfer now. Perez is much better.

  • 22: Sergio Garcia ov Henrik Stenson
  • Stenson isn’t the same guy he used to be. He was 23rd last week at the very week field over in Asia, the only good finish he’s had recently is when he won the Hero world Challenge in the Bahamas. Other than that not very impressive. Sergio has been good, and he made the club changes from Callaway to Ping, and he looked really good last week finishing 8th. Stenson missed the cut here last year, Sergio finished 3rd here last year, and won this tournament in 2017. If Sergio’s play last week is an indication of how he likes the clubs, and maybe his mindset is better, he could be a great guy to bet on in the next month or so.

  • 22: Marcus Kinhault ov Ian Poulter
  • Ian Poulter has been awful since his wrist injury. He had the Withdraw, then played in two tournaments, finished 33rd and 44th, took some time off and played last week and was terrible and missed the cut. Poulter has good history here, but I’m more concerned with his game now. Marcus Kinhault hasn’t played in a bit, but last time we saw him he finished 17th, 2nd, and 16th so he appears to be in much better form.

  • 22: Christian Bezuidenhout ov Eddie Pepperell
  • I love the guy, but Pepperell has been horrible at golf recently. Missed the cut by a mile in South Africa, missed the cut by a mile last week, and this week we’re at a tournament where he has 1 finish inside the top 40 in 6 appearances. Bezuidenhoyt isn’t great, but he at lease made the cut last week and has several decent finishes towards the end of 2019 21, 12, and 24th.

  • 22: Jazz Janewattananond ov Viktor Hovland
  • Gonna take the big dog in Jazz Jannewatanond at +135 over Viktor Hovland who has not looked sharp in his last 2 tournaments missing the cut at the Mayakoba, and then last week at Abu Dhabi. Jazz has been playing on the asian tour, but he’s been great. Last 4 finishes 3, 4, 1, 1. I know the Asian tour isn’t as good at the European Tour, but I’ll take the golfer in better form at plus money.

  • 16: Sung Jae Im ov Paul Casey
  • Love Sung Jae this year, not a fan of Paul Casey., he was bad at the Tourney of Champions and he has only played here twice and when he did he finished 58th and MC. Sung Jae played this course last year and finished 12th, and has been a very consistent golfer, the last 2 times they’ve played in the same tournament together Im finished ahead of Casey.

  • 16: Kevin Chappell ov Max Homa
  • Max Homa is great on social media, just not good on the golf course. Never made the cut here, horrible finishes in the reach around season 3 finishes outside the top 60, Chappell just a better golfer, he finished 6th two years ago

  • 16: Lowry ov Dechambeau (Euro Tour)
  • I want to bet against Bryson this year, I don’t buy his whole thing about putting on muscle, he had a good finish at the Shriners, but he was bad at the Hero World Challenge, he was bad at the presidents cup, and he’s played the Abu Dhabi twice and missed the cut once and finished 54th the other time. Lowry has been in decent form making cuts, and he won this tournament last year.

  • 16: Louis Ov Koepka (Euro Tour)
  • This is a bet that Koepka’s knee isn’t ready for a full tourney. He said he just started hitting golf balls just before christmas, so I’m not sure he’s 100%. Louis has bee playing great recently, 2nd last week, he was fantastic at the Presidents cup and be roe that he finished 20, 6, 3rd. He was 4th here last year so he likes this place, and seems to be in a nice groove.

  • 16: Ryan Fox ov Aphibarnrat (Euro Tour)
  • A fat barn rat sucks. Missed the cut here last year, he’s had one good tournament since May and that was the CJ Cup at 9 bridges. Meanwhile, Fox is good he just always makes the cut, never missed the cut here, and hasn’t missed the cut in a long time. He’s just the better player with better results at this tournament.

  • 08: Colin Morikawa ov Hideki Matsuyama
  • Both golfers are in good form, but for some reason Matsuyama really struggles at this course, and always has. In 6 tourneys here since 2011 he has 3 missed cuts and only 1 finish inside the top 50. And in 2019 he finished 51st here, and he was in good form coming into the tournament, and he played good after that tournament. In 2017 he was in outstanding form coming in with 2 wins, and 2 second place finishes and finished 27th. In 2015 he finished 78th here, but 3rd the week before then 2nd the week after. He just doesn’t play good here. Morikawa was good last week finishing 7th. He’s got a great approach game which is important on this shorter course, and it’s supposed to be windy this week, and Morikawa played good last week in the wind, so he’s used to being in that wind.

  • 08: Matt Jones ov Aaron Wise
  • Aaron Wise is kind of bad right now. 3 missed cuts in his last 4 on the reach around segment. And he’s only played here once, that was in 2018 and he missed cut by quite a few shots. Matt Jones was decent in the reach around season…2 WDs earlier this year with back issues, but he’s played full tournaments in his last 3, and he made the cut in all 3 including a top 20 finish. Matt Jones has played this tournament that last 2 years, made the cut in both tournaments.

  • 08: Charles Howell ov Kevin Kisner
  • This is Charles Howell’s favorite tournament, the results show it. Only 1 finish outside the top 30 in the last 8 tournaments, 8th here last year and in 2017. Howell has been better than Kisner in the reach around finishing ahead or tied with him in 3 of 4 tournaments they’ve played in together. And Kisner doesn’t have amazing course history here. He’s gotten worse the last 3 years here and he was 69th here last year. There are some courses that players just love…Howell loves this course, I really want to support him. I really like him this week over Kisner

  • 08: Matt Kuchar ov Webb Simpson (Matchup found on Draftkings)
  • I’m going to sprinkle a little bit on Matt Kuchar ov Webb Simpson at +140 this week. Last weeks course did not set up great for Kuchar, several long holes, I didn’t expect much from him. But a shorter course in windy conditions…I like Kuchar a lot this week. He won this tournament last year and has 5 top 10 finishes in the last 6 times he’s played here. In fact since 2011 Simpson has never finished ahead of Kuchar at this tournament. Webb has been better in the reach around season than Kuchar, but I like that Kuchar played last week in the wind, he’ll be used to it more than Webb Simpson, and +140 is great value.

  • 08: Keegan Bradley 1st round over Zach Johnson
  • We joke about Keegan being good in the first round and then falling back. Let’s start betting it. In the last 13 times Keegan and Zach have played in a tournament together, Keegan has finished better in the first round in 10 of those 13 rounds. And last year at the Sony Open? Keegan shot 3 shots better than Zach. Johnson’s best days are behind him, no finishes inside the top 13 on the reach around, 2 missed cuts.

  • 01: Gary Woodland ov Paul Casey
  • Love Gary Woodland coming into this season. His life is settled down after having the twins, and his last 3 PGA tour events he finished 7th, 5th, 3rd. He also finished 2nd here last year where Paul Casey was down in 16th. Paul Casey hasn’t been great recently only 1 top 10 finish in the last several months that was a 5th at the Australian Open. He doesn’t have great course history here, I’m a Woodland supporter going into 2020, his drives and iron are solid, his putting has always been the issue, and he’s having great finishes with bad putting. If he just kind of improves his putting he’ll be an all star. I have a strong opinion about Woodland coming into the year…I’ll back it up with my own money by betting on him this week.

  • 01: Graeme McDowell ov Nate Lashley
  • McDowell is just better than Lashley. Lashley randomly won the Rocket Mortgage in 2019, but in the previous 8 tournaments and next 6 tournaments his best finish was 20th in a small field at the St Jude. McDowell looked really good at times in 2019, but then struggled towards the end of the PGA season, but has looked a lot better recently finishing 16th at the Nine Bridges, 23rd at the Mayakoba, and 5th at the QBE. He’s just better than Lashley. He’s also played a couple times here and this will be Lashley’s first and only time at the Tournament of Champions

  • 01: Dylan Fritelli ov JT Poston
  • Fritelli has really improved his game and the results have been showing. Three top 15 finishes in the reach around segment, and he’s finished ahead of Poston in 4 out of the 5 tournaments they’ve played in together. And when you look at their finishes towards the end of 2019, Fritelli has just been more consistent where Poston has ups and downs. Neither has played this tournament before, but I’ve just been impressed with Fritelli, and he’s a guy I’ll be keeping my eye on him this year.

2019

- October

  • 16: Rory Sabbatini ov Abraham Ancer
  • Anger hasn’t made a cut yet this season, and he finished 73rd here last year. Sabbatini missed the cut his first reach around event, but finished 10th last week. He’s just the better golfer.

  • 16: Adam Long ov Adam Schenk
  • Adam Long is the underdog here, and I’m not sure why. They got the wrong guy favored. They’ve played in 3 tournament together in the reach around season, the Greenbriar, Sanderson Farms, Safeway Open… Adam Long finished ahead of Schenk in all three. Last three finishes for Long are 14, 23, 23 so he’s been consistent and good. Schenk has missed the cut in two out of the last four tournaments.

  • 16: Chesson Hadley ov Branden Grace
  • Grace is really bad right now. In his last 4 tournaments he has 3 missed cuts and a 60th place finish. Finished 48th place her last year, he’s just not good right now. Hadley is going the opposite direction as Grace. Hadley missed the cut at the Sanderson Farms, then 23th at the Safeway Open, then 18th at the Shriners. So he’s got momentum, he’s gotten better each of the last 3 tournaments.

  • 16: BONUS PARLAY: Lucas Glover ov Phil Mickelson and Corey Conners ov Graeme McDowell. This pays +150.
  • Sometimes in golf you just have to take a hard stance on somebody, trust your eyes, do the research and just trust yourself. Sacker and I have talked about McDowell a lot over the last couple weeks, and he really looks like he’s fading quick. He had a win last year but that was the Puntacana, and then he had a couple good finishes but starting in July, he has been really bad. 57, MC, 57 to finish the 2019 Pga season. Then on the European season he’s finished MC, 134, 57, 106. Now, he finished 15th last week at the Italian Open, but he basically had one great round on Friday, and those will happen with him occasionally, but he was bad on the weekend. I’m going to be trying to fade McDowell as much as possible.

    Conners finished the 2019 very strong with 5 straight top 27 finishes, he finished 13th his last tournament. I love the matchup.

    Phil’s awful right now, Glover finished 9th last week so I love that matchup. This is a no cut tournament so he can golf without having to worry about getting his ass kicked by his wife if he misses the cut, no pressure for him…

    Conners ov McDowell is -165, Glover ov Phil is -175. Parlay the two and you get +150

  • 09: XinXang Jun ov Austin Cook
  • 09: Lanto Griffin ov Luke List

- September

  • 25: Patrick Cantlay ov Justin Thomas
  • Not a whole lot of numbers to back this up with, but JT had skin cancer cut off his leg. The incision went a couple inches deep and Thomas admitted “It was really a lot of time on the couch and a lot of time just kind of doing nothing. It was honestly a bummer because I had two weeks really to get ready for my tournament, but also workout, train and get my body in the shape I wanted to get in, but I couldn’t really do anything”. He was only getting the stitches out on Monday. Cantlay played here last year and was good, finished 17th…I think there’s a pretty good chance JT could be a bit rusty this week.

  • 25: Sung Jae Im ov Bryson Dechambeau
  • We love betting against Bryson Dechambeau. Last tournament Bryson played in was the Greenbriar, and he missed the cut. Sung Jae Im finished 19th there. Then Im finished 2nd last week. He’s just better than Dechambeau.

  • 25: Harold Varner ov Adam Hadwin
  • Varner has played once in the reach around season and was good finishing 19th two weeks ago. Hadwin hasn’t played yet this season, and last season he just wasn’t very good, especially towards the end. 43, 43, MC, 57 to finish the year. Varner finished ahead of Hadwin in 3 out of the last 4 tournaments they played in together to finish 2019. And Varner likes this course, and Hadwin doesn’t. Hadwin MC the last 2 times he’s played here, Varner 4 straight made cuts including 14th last year and 15 in 2017.

  • 25: Colin Morikawa ov Chez Reavie
  • Morikawa tailed off at the end of the year last year, but we said this. It was his first year on tour and he played a bunch of tournaments in a row. I think he just got tired. It was a schedule he wasn’t used to playing and he got tired. Here’s was how many tournaments he played. Starting June 9, he played 9 tournaments in 11 weeks, played all 4 rounds in all. He won the barracuda and starting with that win he played 4 weeks in a row. That’s a ton for a rookie player. After that he finished 31, 52, 48. He got tired. I think he comes back refreshed and rejuvenated,

- August

  • 15: Bryson DeChambeau ov Tiger Woods
  • So what Bryson plays slow. At least his back is healthy. There’s no way Tiger can get through 4 rounds at this point His body is falling apart, even if he gets a couple of decent rounds in, he’s not going to last over the whole tourney. Bryson also might be fired up over the slow play controversy. He’s a competitive guy, he’s going to have a little extra motivation this week. I think he’s locked in, I think Tiger can’t complete a full tourney…I’ll lay the heavy juice.

  • 15: Billy Horschel ov Jason Day
  • I don’t understand why Jason Day is the favorite. He missed the cut last week, 40th at the St. Jude, missed the cut at the British and 66th at the 3M. So this week he gets rid of his caddie…cause that’s the problem. Maybe it is, but he hasn’t been good for a while this year, and Horschel has been good, much better than Day in the last 2 tournaments they’ve played in together, and this is the time of year Horschel comes alive. He was a sneaky 21st last week, he missed the cut at the British Open, but besides that 5 top 21 finishes including 2 top 10s at the St Jude and Wyndham.

  • 15: Hideki Matsuyama ov Matt Kuchar
  • Kuchar has really fallen off the last few weeks, not sure if it’s fatigue or something wrong with his swing, but his last 3 finishes are outside the top 40 with 41, 43, and a MC last week. And now we’re at Medinah which really doesn’t fit his game. Matsuyma was decent last week finishing 30th, and he outdrives Kuchar by 13 yards which is big on this course. Kuchar is a fade right now.

  • 15: Ian Poulter ov Francesco Molinari
  • Molinari looks checked out at this point, he was terrible last week barely making the cut and finishing in 82nd. Poulter after missing the cut at the US Open and British Open looks great and has finished 8th at the St Jude and 10th last week at the Northern Trust. Poulter normally does good on Thursday and Friday and then fades on the weekend, but not the last 2 tournaments. He’s been steady for 4 rounds in both tournaments, I like him to continue on, and I’m happy to fade Molinari who has no top 10 finishes since he lost the Masters back in April.

  • 15: Ryan Moore ov Rafa Cabrera Bello
  • RCB and his wife just had a baby. He hasn’t played in a couple weeks, and this is the baby rule. Bet against guys who just have babies. Ryan Moore played last week and finished 18th at 09, and the previous tournament he finished 18th at the John Deere at -13. Ryan Moore is 49th in FedEx Cup points, so he’s close to making the top 30, RCB is 67th, he’s not going to make the top 30. RCB doesn’t have a lot of motivation, Moore has a chance to make next weeks tournament. I’ll take Ryan Moore who isn’t a new Dad.

  • 15: Sung Jae IM ov Chez Reavie
  • Reavie has been a nice fade head to head since his win, and even though it was only a 1 stroke win against him last week, it was still a win. Since Reavie’s win his best finish is still 27th at the St Jude (a small field), he wasn’t great last week, and on a long course this week Reavie only drives the ball 286 yards. Im is 10 yards longer than him off the tee, that should be a big advantage this week.

  • 07: Brooks Koepka ov Dustin Johnson
  • Brooks has cemented himself as the most physically and mentally dominating player in golf right now. His performances in the majors have been incredible, and he went toe to toe with McIlroy and made him tap at the St. Jude. He’s the leader in FedEx Cup points now, and the way he could cement this as one of the best years for a golfer in a long time would be to have an amazing FedEx Cup run, and I think he’s up to it. And we get to bet against DJ who has done nothing since finishing 2nd to Brooks at the PGA Championship. No finishes inside the top 20 since then. The last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together The Us Open, Brooks won head to head by 11, the British Brooks won head to head by 9, and the St. Jude Brooks won the head to head by 11.

  • 07: Patrick Cantlay ov Tiger Woods
  • Tiger looked like he was broken down the last time we saw him at the British. I know it was colder there then it will be last week which will help his stiffness, but Tiger even said at the British he didn’t like where his game was at, and if he doesn’t like where his game is at…I don’t like where his game is at. Cantlay is underrated and has been great this year. 12th at the St Jude, better than Tiger at the British, 15th at the Travelers, 21st at the US Open, 1st at the Memorial, 3rd at the PGA Championship. He’s been great at this tournament the last few years, and I think he’s fresher and healthier.

  • 07: Brandt Snedeker ov Gary Woodland
  • Woodland had twins two days ago. Since his win at the US Open, he missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage, and The Open Championship. Then finished 55th at the St Jude…a no cut tourney with 63 players in it. His head is elsewhere, he got a major win. Snedeker has been decent at all the tournaments except the majors. The anti Koepka strategy. 16th at the Pga Championship, but 77th at the US Open, and MC at the British and Masters. 39th at the Wyndham, 27th at the St Jude. Only one missed cut since April 15. He’s steady and solid. Woodland hasn’t even been good at this event the last couple years finishing 48th and MC the last 2 years.

  • 07: Joaquin Niemann ov Chez Reavie
  • Reavie still not good after his win. We lost our head to head last week, but Cameron Smith missed the cut by one shot, and Reavie was terrible on the weekend. I’m not scared to fade him again this time with a very strong Niemann. Niemann has one missed cut in his last 9 tournaments, and since Reavie’s win Niemann was 6 shots better than him at the Wyndham, and 16 shots better at the Rocket Mortgage. Niemann has been way more consistent, Reavie basically had a stretch of 2 good tournaments, and then since then has been awful. Neman 4 top 16 finishes in his last 6 tournaments.

  • 07: Patrick Reed ov Shane Lowry
  • Lowry hasn’t played since his win at the British Open in Northern Ireland. You think he’s been on the range every day dialing in his game for a run at the FedEx Cup Championship, or partying a bit? I’ll go with partying a bit based on all the videos my friends from Ireland have sent me of him going from bar to bar with the Claret Jug. Patrick Reed has found his game for sure after a 22nd place finish last week at the Wyndham. That makes 5 straight very strong finishes. Also, Reed is 17th in President’s Cup standings. He’s behind Phil Mickelson. He’s motivated to make a run to move up, and get a captains pick or pass some of these guys he’s better than right now.

  • 07: Colin Morkiawa ov Hideki Matsuyama
  • Somethings happened to Matsuyama since the 3M Open. He then missed the cut at the British Open, finished 43rd at the no cut FedEx St. Jude, and missed the cut at the Wyndham. Besides a 51st at the Sony Open in the first tournament of 2019…these are his 3 worst finishes of the year. He’s in a funk at the worst time of the year. I expected Morikawa to have a letdown after winning the Barracuda, but he wasn’t terrible. He was -12 at the Wyndham, and he’s shown that he’s not intimidated by playing with big name guys, and he’s been hitting 74% of greens in regulation. Matsuyama may have peaked too early this year, and it looks like he’s on a down trend, and Morikawa seems to be young and fresh and one of the better ball striker with his irons into the greens.

  • 01: Webb Simpson ov Hideki Matsuyama
  • The last two weeks have not been good for Matsuyama. Missed the cut at the British and then 43rd at the St. Jude where he started the tournament decent and then shot over par in the last 3 rounds. It’s been a season of decent finishes for Hideki, but no real threat of winning, and he has not been sharp recently. Webb has been great recently. Starting in April, he’s played 8 tournaments, 6 of those top 20, and the the last 2 weeks Webb has been way better than Hideki making the cut and finishing 30th at the British and finishing 2nd and 13 shots ahead of Matsuyama last week. Webb finishes 2nd and 3rd here the last 2 years, so he loves this place and has finished better than Matsuyama in 4 out of the 5 times they’ve played together in at this tourney.

  • 01: Rory Sabbatini ov Dylan Fritelli
  • Fritelli won the John Deere classic, but he falls in the category of a random winner that hasn’t done anything all year. Besides his win he has played in 17 tournaments. One top 20 finish and that was at the Corales Puntacana. Other than that 11 finishes outside the top 40. He’s just not been good. Sabbatini has finished ahead of Fritelli 9 times this year in tournaments they’ve played in together including 4 out of the last 5. Sabbatini missed the cut at the 3M but rebounded nicely and finished 16th at the British. He’s finished top 30 in 8 of the last 10 tournaments, and 7 of those finishes were top 20. Fritelli has never played here, Sabbatini has, 57th last year, 4th the year before that.

  • 01: Lucas Glover ov Adam Hadwin
  • We’ve definitely made money betting on Lucas Glover a lot this year, let’s try it again against the very inconsistent Adam Hadwin. Let’s start with Glover. He’s been a bit up and down, but I think he’s up right now. He missed the cut at the US Open and Travelers, but came back strong with a 7th at the 3M, 10th at the John Deere, and 20th at the British. So I think he’s comfortable right now and his swing is working. He didn’t play here last year, but his previous 3 years he finished 28 22, 18 here. Now let’s look at Hadwin. He only has 2 top 25 finishes in his last 12 tournaments. That was a 6th at his home tournament the Canadian Open, and a 4th at the 3M. At the British he was 57th, and Glover is 7-2 head to head against Hadwin in the last 9 tournaments they’ve played in together.

  • 01: Alex Noren ov Matthew Wolff
  • Noren has easily won his last 2 tournament head to heads (they were against Phil Mickelson, of course), but he’s been legit good the last few tournaments. He struggled for most of the year, but it looks like he’s turned the corner and is peaking right now. Starting at the beginning of the year through the US Open he had no finishes inside the top 26. But in Late June he finished 26th at the BMW International, 11th at the British, and 12th at the St. Jude. I’ve said it before I think Wolff is a bit overrated. Yes he had the win, but before that nothing inside the top 50, and since his win he finished 37th at the John Deere, and 24th at the St. Jude. He’s got that weird swing and he was a great college player, but I see opportunity in betting against him week to week.

  • 01: Cameron Smith ov Chez Reavie
  • Here we go again with a random winner struggling after a win. Reavie was amazing at the US Open and finished 3rd, and then followed that up with a win at the Travelers. He followed that up with 2 missed cuts at the Rocket Mortgage and the British Open and a 27th at the St. Jude. Since that win, Cameron Smith has played in all three of those tournament that Reavie has played in, and finished ahead of him in all. Beat him by 11 shots at the Rocket Mortgage, 4 shots at the British, and 3 shots at the St. Jude. Cameron Smith is +110.

  • 01: Jason Dufner ov Lucas Bjerregard
  • You think Brooks Koepka only likes playing in the majors? Bjerregard takes it to a whole new level. After the Match play tourney, Bjerregard’s only 3 made cuts are the Masters 21st, PGA 16th, British Open 16th. The other 5 tournaments missed cuts. He finished 51st last week at the St. Jude which I’m counting as a missed cut. I bet against him at the British because he’d been so bad, and he kicked my ass. But now it looks like the formal is bet against him on the non majors. So I’ll roll the dice with Dufner who has made the cut 5 times in a row at this tournament. He hasn’t been great this year, but he’s had flashes, he was decent at the last tournament he played in, and here’s what takes this over the top for me. Dufner has extra motivation this week. Right now he’s 36 points out of the Fedex Cup playoffs. He can jump guys and sneak in with a good finish this week, he’ll be focused.

  • 01: Roger Sloan ov Kevin Tway
  • You want to talk about someone who’s game has fallen off, look no further than Kevin Tway. 5th at the Travelers, and then he followed it up with a missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage, missed cut at the John Deere, and an atrocious 61st place finish at +17 at the St, Jude. Roger Sloan has been going the complete opposite direction. When Tway finished 5th at the Travelers, Sloan missed the cut. After that when Tway missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage, Sloan finished 21st, then when Tway missed the cut at the John Deere, Sloan finished 10th. And last week while Tway was fiddle fuckin around the St Jude Sloan was finishing 7th at the Barracuda.

- July

  • 24: Rory McIlory ov Brooks Koepka
  • Here we go again with non-majors Brooks. He has to be pissed off about the Open Championship and how that ended…and even though you might think Rory was more disappointed…he’s probably over it. Last time he missed the cut was at the Memorial. The week after he won the Canadian Open. Rory bounces back well. And here’s the stat of the tournament. In non-major tournaments this year…they’ve played in 7 tournaments together…rory is 7-0 straight up against Brooks.

  • 24: Alex Noren ov Phil Mickelson
  • Phil’s game is in shambles right now, he was awful again last week. And this week we get a tournament and course that he’s pretty familiar with and has good history. There’s no missed cut so we are going to get 4 rounds of Phil. I don’t know if that’s good or bad for betting. This is Noren’s first time playing here, but he’s in a way better place than Phil right now. Noren has one missed cut in his last 9 tournaments. Phil has no top 50 finishes in his last 7 tournaments. Not sure where Phil’s game is going, but I know where it is right now…and it’s bad.

  • 24: Patrick Reed ov Jason Day
  • Patrick Reed is on the upswing, and Day is not. I can’t argue with Reeds last 5 finishes… 32, 30, 5, 23, and 10th last week at the Open. Day missed the cut last week, was 66th the last tournament, and neither of these guys have played in the last 4 years at this tournament. Reed clearly had massive swing problems in the middle part of the season, but it looks like he has those issues solved.

  • 24: Brandt Snedeker ov Sergio Garcia
  • Everyone knows I like betting against Sergio right now, and even though we lost last week, Sergio was terrible finishing in 67th. Snedeker missed the cut by a shot, but that course isn’t Snedeker’s type of course. Snedeker hasn’t been good at the majors this year, but he’s been good at the non majors. No finishes outside the top 45 since March, and he finished 6th here last year. I think over 4 rounds he’ll be better than Sergio who last played here in 2009, and 2011 and missed the cut.

  • 17: Make The Cut Parlay
  • McIlroy, Koepka, DJ, Rahm, Roxe, Schauffele, Fleetwood, Scott, Stenson, Cantlay, Matsuyama, Kuchar, Casey, Wiesberger, Poulter, Pepperell, Simpson, Snedeker, Horschel

    120-1

  • 17: First Round Unders
  • All these guys tee off early with lower winds, and low percentage of rain. They all have great track records of having strong first rounds to start their tournaments.

    Henrik Stenson Under 69.5

    Adam Scott Under 69.5

    Ian Poulter Under 70.5

    Hideki Matsuyama Under 69.5

  • 17: Miss The Cut Parlay
  • Dustin Johnson, Francesco Molinari +2000

  • 17: Miss The Cut Parlay
  • Graeme McDowell, Branden Grace +430

  • 17: Three Guys To Miss The Cut
  • Tiger Woods +270

    Sergio Garcia +185

    Phil Mickelson +135

  • 17: Make The Cut Parlay
  • Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele, Henrik Stenson, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama +250

  • 17: Make The Cut Parlay
  • Matt Kuchar, Paul Casey, Bernd Wiesberger, Marc Leishman +250

  • 17: Make The Cut Parlay
  • Billy Horschel, Brandt Snedeker, Patrick Reed, Rafa Cabrera Bello +400

  • 16: Top 10, Top 20
  • Top 10:

    Brooks Koepka -105

    Top 20:

    Adam Scott +110

    Henrik Stenson +100

    Xander Schauffele -110

  • 16: Brooks Koepka ov Dustin Johnson
  • I get the number 1 guy in my power rankings (Major Brooks) against a guy on my fade list in DJ, and I only have to lay -105…I’ll take it. DJ hasn’t been sharp recently, but he also doesn’t have great history at the British Open. Mc last year, 54th the year before that, 9th in 2016, 49th in 2015. I don’t understand the Koepka phenomenon about only caring about the majors, but it’s given us a great betting situation, and I think we just have to bet on Koepka at all the majors.

  • 16: Adam Scott ov Francesco Molinari
  • Haven’t been impressed with Molinari all year, especially since the collapse at The Masters. Since then he has one finish inside the top 48. But Adam Scott has been on a roll recently. Since the Honda Classic where he missed the cut he finishes 12th at the Players, 18th at the Masters, 8th at the PGA Championship, 2nd at The Memorial, and 7th at The US Open. So not only is Scott in better form, he’s generally more consistent at The British Open. He finished 17th last year, 22nd in 2017 and from 2012-2015 he finished top 10 in all those years. Molinari won last year, but he was in great form, and year before that he missed the cut, and besides his win he only has 1 top 10.

  • 16: Henrik Stenson ov Tommy Fleetwood
  • Stenson has been good, not great this year, but the last 3 tournaments he’s really started to turn it on, and he looks like the elite golfer we all know he can be, and he looks poised to make a run at a British Open championship. 8th at the Canadian Open, 9th at the US Open, 4th at the Scottish Open. Fleetwood I think is overrated, I love betting against him…he has 1 finish inside the top 23 on the European Tour this year, nothing inside the top 10 on the Pga tour since March 17th, and Fleetwood’s best finish at a major this year is 36th.

  • 16: Alex Noren ov Phil Mickelson
  • Betting against Phil has been a cash cow recently, and I’m happy to do it this week with Alex Noren who finished 17th and 6th at the British Opens the last 2 years. Noren got off to a slow start to 2019, but he’s improved a lot. Only one missed cut on the PGA and European Tour since March. Phil only has 3 made cuts since March, and since the Masters his best finish is 52nd. And now he loses 15 pounds in 10 days…that’s… not healthy.

  • 16: Matt Kuchar ov Jason Day
  • Matt Kuchar is number 1 in fedex cup points, and has been incredible this year. He has 11 top 20 finishes this year in 16 tournaments. He’s been consistent, and great. Day is one of the more frustrating golfers of 2019, lots of downs, not a lot of ups…and some really confusing finishes, but Kuchar has been better than him in most tournaments. Kuchar was better than him at the PGA Championship and Us Open, and Kuchar’s last 2 finishes at the British Opens were 9th and 2nd. Better than Day the last 2 years. Since the Masters Day has one top 20 finish in 7 tournaments, Kuchar has 5 top 20 finishes in 6 tournaments.

  • 15: Xander Schaufele ov Rickie Fowler
  • Fowler has been terrible in head to head matchups this year. So now we’re at a major which Fowler tends to shrink at. 9th at the Masters, 36th at the Pga Championship, 43rd at the US Open, and Fowler isn’t great at the British Open. 28, 22, 46, 30 the last 4 years at the British Opens. Schauffele is the opposite of Fowler. He does better at majors than at regular events. 2nd, 3rd, 16th at the 3 majors this year, and last year he finished 2nd at the British Open, the year before that 20th. Fowler just always end up overrated in these matchups.

  • 15: Rafa Cabrera Bello ov Sergio Garcia
  • Sergio sucks. MC at the Masters and Pga Championship, 52nd at the US Open…he had a couple good events early in the year, but I really think he had high expectations at the Masters, and he was really bad and since then he has one finish inside the top 50. The last tournament he played in was his own tournament the Andalusia Masters hosted by the Sergio Garcia Foundation…this is the event he wins every year. This year he finished 7th. He finished behind Christiaan Bezuidenout, Adri Arnaus, Eduardo De la Riva, Alvaro Quiros, and Mike Lorenzo-Vera. Meanwhile, RCB is on a hot streak. 9th at the Scottish, 4th at the Irish, 3rd at the BMW. And RCB wasn’t great last year at the British, finishing 74th…and that was still better than Sergio who missed the cut.

  • 15: Bernd Wiesberger ov Marc Leishman
  • Best player on the European Tour right now is Bernd Wiesberger since he came back from his wrist injury. His last 5 starts on the European tour are win, 2nd, 16th, 8th, win. Leishman has one decent finish since February, that was a 5th at The Memorial. But Recently 21st at the Travelers, 35th at the US Open, MC at the Pga Championshipo, 58th Heritage, 49th Masters, MC Players. Leishman was 60th at last years British Open. Wiesberger didn’t play last year at this tournament, but I love his form and I expect big things from him this week.

  • 15: Sung Jae Im ov Lucas Bjerregard
  • Pretty simple bet here for me. Bjerregard has made 1 cut in his last 7 tournaments. He made the cut at the PGA Championship, other than that his best finish is tied for 81st. Sung Jae has made 6 straight cuts, and his last 5 finishes are 26, 15, 21, 21, 7.

  • 15: Lucas Glover ov Luke List
  • List finished 6th at the PGA Championship somehow, and then promptly missed the next 4 cuts. Glover went a bit of a cold stretch, but the last two weeks he finished 7th and 10th. List is 190th in driving accuracy, and 112th in Greens in regulation. Glover is 58th in driving accuracy and 30th in greens in regulation.

  • 15: Andrew Putnam ov CT Pan
  • CT Pan loves easy courses, and hates hard courses. This isn’t an easy course. Pan won the RBC Heritage, and then third at the Charles Schwab. Besides that he has no finishes inside the top 35. The other thing about Pan is he’s played in the PGA Championship and the US Open and missed the cut at both of those tournaments. Putnam has been playing some decent golf recently making 6 cuts in a row…and Putnam also played in the PGA Championship and the US Open and he made the cut at both of those majors. Putnam played at the Scottish Open last week and finished 4th shooting -19.

  • 15: Corey Conners ov Ryan Fox
  • Something isn’t right with Ryan Fox. He was playing good golf earlier in the year, but has missed the cut in 6 straight tournaments, best finish was 81st at the Scottish Open. Corey Conners hasn’t been great, but since his win he’s only missed 3 cuts in 9 tournaments, and he made the cut at both majors he played in

  • 15: BONUS PICKS FROM LAST YEARS BRITISH OPEN * Ashton Turner ov Sam Locke
  • They’ve played in 5 tournaments together this year..Ashton Turner has finished ahead of Sam Locke in 4 of those.

  • 10: Rickie Fowler ov Rory McIlroy
  • Does anyone think Rory cares about this tournament? It’s right before the British…he was already at the British Open course earlier this week practicing. And the Scottish is always right before the British. Rory played this in 2017, MC. He has no finishes at the Scottish inside the top 13, he very rarely plays this tournament. Meanwhile, this is right up Fowler’s alley. Play great right before a major, get everyones hopes up, and then suck at the Major. He’s played the Scottish 4 times. 6th, 9th, 1st, 8th. This has all the makings of Fowler trying really hard and playing great, and McIlroy not giving a fuck.

  • 10: Brian Harman ov Matthew Wolff
  • Harman missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage by one shot, but he had the weird tee time where he caught the bad weather both days. Last week he was 7th at the 3M, and two weeks ago 8th at the Travelers. This is the kind of tournament he does well at. Short, accurate with driver and irons, make some putts. And I put Matthew Wolff as a random playing who won. I don’t think his heads going to be in this tournament, and the fact is before his win he missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage, 80th at the Travelers, 50th at the Waste Management

  • 10: Peter Malnati ov JT Poston
  • I don’t see a huge advantage in this matchup, but I like the form Malnati is in right now making 7 cuts in a row, and Malnati has finished ahead of Poston in 5 of the last 6 tournaments they’ve played in together. They have similar course history here…but Poston finished 11th in the last tournament he played in, but before that in 6 tournaments he didn’t have one finish inside the top 50. Malnati is in better form the last couple months…I like him over 4 rounds at this tournament.

  • 10: Lucas Glover ov Ryan Moore
  • Lucas Glover missed the cut at the US Open, understandably, it was a long course and Glover is 92nd in driving distance. Then he missed the cut the week after the major, I don’t really care about that. But he took a week off and came back last week and was great, finishing 7th. Ryan Moore won a bet a couple weeks ago against Phil, but he missed the cut that tournament, and he missed the cut two weeks in a row at the Rocket Mortgage and 3M open…those are easy courses. We get another easy course this week…Glover is just a better golfer. I’m breaking my rule again about getting involved in a bet with a guy named Ryan…but we were successful before…I think Glover plays good this week.

  • 02: Ryan Moore ov Phil Mickelson
  • I already know I’m going to regret this bet because any time I get involved in a bet with anyone named, “Ryan”….I lose. Ryan Moore, Ryan Palmer, in Nascar Ryan Newman, in football Ryan Fitzpatrick…but numbers don’t lie. Phil is awful right now. I’m going to go over some staggering stats about Phil. Phil has a grand total of 4 tournaments this year that he’s finished under par, Ryan Moore has 8. We say fade Phil after the Masters…since the Masters, his best finish is 52nd, Ryan Moore has 3 finishes better than that. Since the Masters Phil’s best final score at a tournament is +3. Ryan Moore has 5 finishes better than that. Head to head this year Ryan Moore is 6-1 vs Phil in 7 tournaments they’ve played in together. Phil is a laughable 196th in driving accuracy, but hey…at least he’s improved his club head speed which he’s been working on. Ryan Moore is 3rd in driving accuracy. Moore doesn’t drive the ball very long, but you don’t have to at this course.

  • 02: Hideki Matsuyama ov Brooks Koepka
  • Forgive me if I don’t think Brooks really cares about the 3M tournament in Blaine, Minnesota. Let’s take a look at the non Major finishes for Koepka. 2nd at the Honda Classic, 4th at the Byron Nelson. 24th at the Tourney of Champions in a field of 37, 27th in Mexico, MC at the Arnold Palmer, 56th at the Players, 56th in the Match play, 50th at the Canadian, 57th at the Travelers. Matsuyama is really consistent and is 4-1 against Brooks in non-major events. And breaking news…the 3M Open is not a major.

  • 02: Colin Morikawa ov Daniel Berger
  • Not a whole lot of research had to go into this play. Colin Morikawa played in 3 professional tournaments in the last month with Daniel Berger. Morikawa finished ahead of Berger in every tournament.

  • 02: Lucas Glover ov Charley Hoffman
  • Hoffman really struggling this year, only one top 10 finish this year, and he’s missed the cut in 3 straight tournaments…he’s really bad right now. Glover not great coming off of 2 missed cuts, but one was the US Open, and the other was the Traveler, which he has bad course history at. This is a new course, Glover is a better golfer than Hoffman right now, I expect Mr. Glover to avoid the wrath of Mrs. Glover and make the cut this week…Hoffman is 158th in driving accuracy, Glover is 62nd. Hoffman 95th in greens in regulation, Glover 47th. Hoffman 67th in putting, Glover 21st in putting.

  • 02: Rory Sabbatini ov Sung Jae Im
  • We’ve done well betting on Rory Sabbatini this year, and this week we get a matchup I really like against Sung Jae Im who’s been really good this year. But Sabbatini has been better. In their last 6 tournaments they’ve played in together, Sabbatini is 6-0. I’ve gone over Sabatini’s results earlier.

  • 02: Viktor Hovland ov Tony Finau
  • Keep giving me great matchups with Notorious Victorious Hovland and I’ll keep betting him. Hovland hasn’t missed the cut since January, and he’s finished ahead of Finau in the 2 recent tourney’s they’ve played in together, The US Open, and the Travelers…by a combined 11 shots. This is also an indictment of where Tony Finau’s game is right now. Three straight missed cuts. He only has 2 top 10 finishes this year, only one finish inside the top 60 in the last 7 tournaments. Ready for the crazy part? Hovland is the underdog at +115.

  • 02: Cameron Tringale ov Bud Cauley
  • Talk about two golfers going in different directions here. Bud Cauley has a 9th place finish at the Memorial, but other than that, nothing inside the top 43 in his last 6 tournaments including 3 missed cuts. Meanwhile, Triangle missed the cut at the Wells Fargo, but other than he’s been really good. 5th at the Rocket, 71st at the travelers, 11th at the canadian, 23rd at the byron nelson, 17th at the Valero. Only 2 missed cuts in 2019 for Triangle, 8 for Cauley. Triangle 4-0 against Cauley in the last 4 tournaments they played in together.

  • 02: Sam Burns ov Michael Thompson
  • Sam Burns hasn’t missed the cut since February. But he has 2 WD’s after terrible first rounds. So lets call them missed cuts. So he has 2 missed cuts in his last 13 tournaments. Michael Thompson has 3 missed cuts in his last 4 tournaments. If you look at Michael Thompsons stats, they look good on paper, but they are skewed. Thompson was really good early in the year. He had a streak of 5 straight top 16 finishes, and then it all came apart. Thompson missed the cut at the Rocket Classic last week, Burns finished 8 shots ahead of him.

- June

  • 26: Viktor Hovland ov Bubba Watson
  • Bubba’s last 4 finishes are 54th, MC, 63rd, MC…and now he’s playing on a course with tight fairways and lots of trees? The fact is Bubba had one good round last week. Other than that he wasn’t good. And we said last week, if you’re going to bet on Viktor Hovland, you have to do it now while there’s still value. I’m worried about Viktor playing 3 weeks in a row…but I still like the value here…bubba is fade material right now. I get Hovland at even money right now…if Hovland wins this head to head this week, I don’t know how much more value he’s going to have moving forward…let’s see what happens this week, but I still think he’s the correct pick in this matchup. Bubba 150th in driving accuracy this year on a course lined with trees and rough.

  • 26: Brian Harman ov Charles Howell
  • Harman was terrible at the beginning of the season, but he’s been on a nice run…which is the exact opposite of what is happening to Charles Howell. Howell after the Masters has finished MC, MC, WD, 41, MC, 52. In 2019, his 6 worst finishes…are his last 6 tournaments. Meanwhile Out of Brian Harmans best 5 finishes in 2019 3 of them have been in the last 4 weeks. He’s made the cut 4 times in a row…he’s +120 in this matchup, and he’s on the upswing this year.

  • 26: Cameron Tringale ov Cameron Champ
  • Cameron Champ has 2 made cuts since February 11th. Those 2 finishes were 54th and 58th. He’s going to be good…but he’s not right now. Meanwhile, Triangle is a made cut machine making 6 cuts in his last 7 tournaments. I can’t make any case for Champ in this matchup, it’s a course that doesn’t set up well for Champ. Lots of trees and rough…Champ is number 1 on tour for driving distance…189th for accuracy. I said it at the PGA Championship…he can hit a mile, but has no clue where it’s going to land. The other problem with Champ is he’s 196th in putting. So a guy who can’t hit fairways, and can’t putt. Love this matchup.

  • 26: Martin Laird ov Nick Watney
  • Watney is all or nothing…but Laird has been pretty consistent recently. Six straight made cuts, and was good last week finishing 21st. Watney has a few missed cuts, but a couple of good finishes…but here’s the selling point for this pick. They’ve played together in 7 tournaments recently…Laird has finished ahead or tied with Watney in 6 of those tournaments. I say I always want the consistent golfer over the up and down golfer…I get it here.

  • 26: Vaughn Taylor ov Kyle Stanley
  • Kyle Stanley isn’t very good right now. Finished 36th last week, but Vaughn Taylor finished 4th last week. Taylor has 5 straight made cuts with a few really good finishes in that span. Stanley has one one top 20 finish in 2019, 3 missed cuts in the last 6 tournaments. Taylor has finished ahead of Stanley in 6 tournaments they played in together…I think Taylor is on a hot streak, I want to take advantage of it while I can.

  • 18: Emiliano Grillo ov Phil Mickelson
  • What do we say every year about Phil. Play him until the masters, then fade him. Since his 18th place finish at the Masters, he’s finished MC, 71, MC, 52…and the 52 was at a course he won earlier this year. He’s got no control over his tee shots, and Grillo is just steady and consistent. He’s a made cut machine, and he finished 19th here last year. Phil hasn’t played this tourney since 2003.

  • 18: Paul Casey ov Jason Day
  • Both these guys have similar finishes, but Jason Day doesn’t give me any upside. Since the Masters, nothing inside the top 20, and 3 missed cuts in his last 7 tournaments. Casey’s only missed cut in the last 7 was the weird one at the Masters. Here’s the big thing about this bet. I went back and checked. In 2018, 2017, and 2015…Paul Casey has played the US Open, and then played this tournament the very next week. Finished 2nd, 5th, and 2nd in those 3 years. Last year Jason Day was 12th here, the year before that he missed the cut. Something about playing this tournament right after the US Open that Paul Casey loves.

  • 18: Jordan Spieth ov Brooks Koepka (+178)
  • Too much value here at +180. Does Brooks care about non majors or not? His results would suggest he doesn’t really care. 2, 1, 2. Those are his finishes at the majors. 50,4,22,56,mc,2,27,24. Those are his non major tournaments. He just finished 2nd at the US Open, and I’m supposed to believe he’s going to come out fired up for the Travelers? No way. I’m not the biggest Spieth fan, but I can’t pass up getting him at +180. This is a course he can attack, it’s short, and we’ve seen his putter get hot. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a bored Koepka finish outside the top 40. And Spieth won this tournament in 2017 so we know he can go low here.

  • 18: Francesco Molinari ov Tommy Fleetwood
  • Keep giving me better golfers than Tommy Fleetwood in matchups, and I’ll keep betting on them. Last week Fleetwood did what he’s been doing recently, and that’s not competing. Finished 65th. Molinari was 9 shots better than him. They’ve played 7 times this year together, Fleetwood has finished ahead of Molinari twice. And that was at the Players, and then the RBC Heritage which was the week after the Masters when Francesco’s head was not in it. Since the Players, Fleetwood’s best finish is 25th, he’s never played here. This is a shorter course a bit similar to last week where you have to be accurate off the tee to set up an approach shot…Molinari was way better, he’s better than Fleetwood now, easy bet for me.

  • 18: Marc Leishman ov Tony Finau
  • I’m not a huge Leishman believer, but I’ve been following Tony Finau this year, and he’s been bad. One finish inside the top 60 in his last 6 tournaments, another missed cut last week. Looking at the stats he’s a mess. 180th in driving accuracy, and 119th in greens in regulation. Leishman looked decent last week with a 35th place finish, 5th the week before. Just feels like he’s in a better place with his game than Finau is.

  • 18: Viktor Hovland ov Daniel Berger
  • Hovland looked really good last week. Finished 12th. Finished 32nd at the Masters, and 40th at the Arnold Palmer. Those are real tournaments that he’s looked really good in. Hovland finished better than Berger in the US Open and the Arnold Palmer, and I see no upside in Daniel Berger. None. In his last 11 tournaments, his best finish is 23rd. In half his tournaments this year he’s finished above par. If Holland is the real deal, which we think he is, we aren’t going to get value on him for long. So bet on him now if you think he’s legit, cause if he is legit..we won’t be getting these types of matchups for long.

  • 16: Marc Leishman ov Tiger Woods
  • Tiger was stiff yesterday and shot even, but it was fairly lucky. Lot of long putts made. Sources (guy I know) at the course say today is the coldest it’s been. They followed Tiger for a bit and said he was stretching looked uncomfortable. I expect him to struggle today. Leishman has been consistent, I see him able to navigate tough conditions better than Tiger today.

  • 14: Haotong Li ov Bubba Watson
  • Bubba was awful again today, and I don't see anything in his game that leads me to believe why tomorrow will be any different. I've liked Haotong Li this year. He's improved his physique and his game, and the results are there. He's in the same group as Bubba, and was 4 shots better than him this morning. They will play in the more difficult afternoon group, and I see Bubba struggling with the difference in speed from today to tomorrow.

  • 12: BIG Make The Cut Parlay 330-1
  • DJ, Brooks, Tiger, Cantlay, Fowler, Justin Thomas, Fleetwood, Adam Scott, Matsuyama, Kuchar, Simpson, Lowry, Casey, Snedeker, McDowell, Furyk, Glover, Grillo, Piercy, Van Rooyen

  • 12: Make the Cut Parlays
  • Fowler, Casey, Snedeker, McDowell +210

    Dustin, Brooks, Tiger, Cantlay, Justin Thomas +130

    Kuchar, Furyk, Poulter, Glover +310

    Grillo, Piercy, Erik Van Royeen +260

  • 11: *FAVORITE SNEAKY PLAY OF THE WEEK* Julian Etulain ov Daniel Hillier
  • Daniel Hillier is an amateur from New Zealand who qualified barely for the US Open by shooting -8 at the Walton Heath GC in Surrey, England. He is currently ranked 1,905th in the world, and has not played in any PGA Tour events. So he gets to cut his teeth at Pebble Beach. He’s played in 3 events this year… the Asia Pacific Open, the SEC New Zealand Pga Championship, and the New Zealand Open. Didn’t make the cut at any of those. Everyone knows I like Etulain…here’s the thing…he likes this course! He’s played here twice…finished 33rd and 38th.

  • 11: Brooks Koepka ov Rory McIlroy
  • Brooks Koepka is +120 against Rory McIlroy?!? Recency bias much? It was the Canadian Open. Calm Down. Koepka has won the US Open two times in a row…Rory has missed the cut in three straight US Opens. Also, Rory has played Pebble one time, and missed the cut, that was in 2017. Brooks has played here once and finished 8th. People are going to be all over Rory because they saw him tear apart the Canadian Open. I don’t buy it. Give me Brooks.

  • 11: Justin Thomas ov Justin Rose
  • Gut feeling here that Rose is in a bit of a funk, and Thomas is getting healthy. JT came back from the wrist injury and missed the cut in his first tournament…that was to be expected. Then the week after that finished 20th. And I like that he shot under par on Saturday and Sunday. Showed me he wasn’t getting tired, or his wrist wasn’t hurting. Justin Rose hasn’t been great. Not at the last 3 majors, and his last 3 PGA tournaments finishes are 13, 58, 29. Not impressed with what I’m seeing from him. I like JT to maybe contend this week.

  • 11: Ian Poulter ov
  • Bubba had a good second round last week and then did what he normally does and that’s fall apart on the weekend. This course doesn’t set up well for Bubba (not many course do these days), he’s played here 4 times over his career, best finish is 35th. Poulter doesn’t have good history at Pebble, but he hasn’t played it in 4 years. I’ve followed Poulter all year pretty close, and his results have been pretty obvious. As long as the course isn’t super long, he’s probably going to have a strong finish. Worst finish of the year was the missed cut at BethPage. Poulter is way better than Bubba in driving accuracy and greens in regulation, and he’s better in putting.

    (Went into depth on the podcast a bit more with Poulter and Bubba's history on this course)

  • 11: Graeme McDowell ov Patrick Reed
  • Went over Patrick Reed last week, I said I’m done with him and I meant it. Reed has been really bad this year. His last finishes are MC, 63, 28, mc, 36, 24, mc. McDowell finished 8th last week, and hasn’t missed a cut in 2019. Reed has only finished ahead of McDowell one time in 2019 that was the Arnold Palmer where Reed beat him by one shot. Here’s the other thing. McDowell likes Playing at Pebble. Finished 18th here earlier this year. Him and Reed have played Pebble 3 times in the past, Reed has never finished ahead of McDowell. McDowell is +115

  • 11: Martin Kaymer ov Sergio Garcia
  • Sergio Garcia sucks. I still can’t believe we lost a bet when Sergio finished in 117th place at the Canadian Open when Pierce somehow managed to lose to him by one shot. That’s two missed cuts in a row for Sergio, he doesn’t play here, only played once and finished 52nd. Kaymer has never played here, that doesn’t concern me too much, Kaymer has two top 10 finishes in his last 2 tournaments. Sergio is outside the top 140 in the world in driving accuracy and greens in regulation. Only two missed cuts for Kaymer this year was the tournament the week after the Masters, and the PGA Championship. Kaymer is +140

  • 11: Matt Kuchar ov Tommy Fleetwood
  • Shorter course that requires accuracy off the tee and a lot of greens in regulation? Kuchar is 10th in driving accuracy, and 3rd in greens in regulation. He looked great last week coming off of the weird missed cut at the Memorial, and he’s been better than Fleetwood at both majors this year. Fleetwood played Pebble earlier this year, finished 45th…Kuchar has played here 12 times, finished 22nd here earlier this year.

  • 04: Dustin Johnson ov Rory McIlroy
  • It’s juicy, but I’ll take it. RBC is a Dustin Johnson sponsor he always gives his all in these tournaments. He’s finished 1, 8, 2 the last 3 years here, and his game is in good form. This is going to be a good week for him to play solid, keep in form for a run at the US Open, and I like him to want to win a tournament where his friend and rival Brooks Koepka is playing in. Rory on the other hand…he just sucks at putting. He’s never played here before, he was awful last week…I think of all the main guys in the field who is looking ahead to next week, it’s Rory. He along with several other guys are playing this tournament to get their minimum number of tournaments in for the season, but I see motivation with other guys…Rory’s motivation is to try and figure out what went wrong last week, and then move on to the US Open.

  • 04: Brandt Snedeker ov Bubba Watson
  • I get a guy who loves playing this tournament who finished 8th last year, 5th before that 25th before that and won this tournament in 2013…and who’s finished 16th and 19th in his last 2 tournaments in 2019…against a guy who missed the cut last year at this tournament, 42nd the year before…Bubba missed the cut at the Pga Championship, was good at Augusta, which is a course he loves…but the than that has been mediocre at best. And I get Snedeker as the underdog at +110.

  • 04: Scott Piercy ov Sergio Garcia
  • Piercy has been really good recently. In his last 5 tournaments, 19, 41, 2, 13, 3. And he’s a former winner here. He hasn’t played here in a few years, but he’s had success here, and I know this is going to sound crazy…but I saw his twitter post about his wedding anniversary being Monday. This guy is so emotionally fragile, he missed the cut at the PGA Championship, he’s got 4 finishes outside the top 20 in 4 out of his last 6 tournaments. I just love betting against Sergio during his wedding anniversary week. And I get Piercy at +115

  • 04: Jim Furyk ov Shane Lowry
  • I don’t understand Shane Lowry. 8th at the PGA Championship, Missed cut at the Zurich, 3rd at the RBC Heritage, 4 missed cuts and a 62nd in the 5 tournaments before that. Lowry has played this tournament twice. 12th, and a MC. So Lowry is a wildcard. I just know that Furyk is predictable on certain courses. He’s not going to be long, but he’ll be straight and accurate into the greens. He’s got a good track record at this course except for the last couple years, but he was dealing with a wrist injury, and his game fell off…but he’s won this tournament twice before, he has a streak of 3 top 10’s as well…This year, he’s rejuvenated, he looks great…I’ll always take the steady consistent golfer over the inconsistent boom or bust guy.

- May

  • 28: Rory Sabbatini ov Phil Mickelson
  • I mean…Why is sabbatini the underdog here? Everyone that listens to this podcast regularly knows how much I love sabbatini…but Sabatini’s last 5 finishes are 6, 5, 18, 3, 10. Phil’s last 6 finishes are 71, mc, 18, mc, mc. Phil has been awful recently, Sabbatini has been incredible…this is one of those bets that average bettors look at and just see name recognition, and don’t look up the stats.


    *I wrote this earlier today...and the line has moved drastically. I see Sabbatini at -150 now. It's up to you if you want to lay that kind of juice. I still believe in the bet, I think Sabbatini wins, but -150 is a lot different than the +100 I played when recording the podcast. Any questions, just email me or send me something on twitter.

  • 28: Rickie Fowler ov Jordan Spieth
  • Fowler missed the cut, that means he sucks, right? Wrong. It’s been 368 days since the last time he missed the cut. It’s also been 3 years since he’s missed the cut 2 years in a row. He’s fine I’m not worried about him. His last 2 finishes at this tournament are 8th, and 2nd. Now let’s talk Jordan Spieth. His run on putting was incredible. 357 feet of putts made in the first 3 rounds of the Charles Schwab. The week before that he was +10 in putting. At one point over the weekend he was +22 in putting over his last 9 rounds. That’s an impossible rate to keep on. What happened his 4th round? Regression back to the mean…he only had 1 birdie, that was on the last hole, and again he made a 16 foot birdie. His irons aren’t solid…his lucky putting has been saving him…it’s not going to continue…I love this bet.

  • 28: Matt Kuchar ov Justin Thomas
  • I’m not sure what to expect from Justin Thomas this week. He didn’t play in the Pga Championship with the wrist injury, and this is his first tournament since the Masters. I normally like betting on guys coming back from injury, but this one feels different. This is obviously a tournament he’s playing in to get ready for the US Open. I expect him to play decent, but a little cautious. But on the other side of the bet I get the number 1 player in fedex cut points, and a guy who’s last 5 finishes are 8, 2, 12, 7, 2…and who’s last 3 finishes at this tournament are 13, 4, 4. That’s Rory Sabbatini-esque numbers!!!

  • 28: Gary Woodland ov Bryson Dechambeau
  • I can’t believe we didn’t cash the bet against Bryson again this week, but I’m going back to fading Bryson, this week with Gary Woodland. Bryson won this tournament last year, but the numbers don’t lie…he’s missed the cut the last 3 tournaments he’s played in. Gary Woodland has not missed the cut in the last 3 tournaments he’s been in. 8th at the PGA Championship, a WD at the Wells Fargo, 32nd at the Masters, played decent at the Match play. Bryson made some crazy long putts to start the second round last week, and he still missed the cut. He’s fade material until he shows us a major change in his game.

  • 28: Jim Furyk ov HaoTong Li
  • Furyk has been really good in head to head matchups. He keeps being undervalued, and I think he’s undervalued again this week. Looking at the numbers, I think he’s undervalued because the books take into account previous years finishes at tournaments, but that was before 2019 Furyk. He’s obviously changed something, and he’s been great this year. Missed the cut at the Pga Championship, but that was predictable with the long course…he came back from that and finished 13th last week. Furyk has missed the cut the last 2 years here, but I don’t care about that…he’s a different golfer this year. Haotong Li has been decent this year, but his best finish in the US has been 36th. This course isn’t super long, it’s about good approach shots into the greens, and that’s Furyk’s specialty.

  • 16: Charles Howell ov Lee Westwood
  • Westwood was really bad in round 1. Hit 33% of greens. He's past his prime, and Howell was just way better today than Westwood hitting 66% of greens. Westwood only had 1 birdie on his scorecard, where Howell had 3. I don't see any upside from Westwood, and Howell has a great chance to play good and make the cut.

  • 14: Dylan Fritelli ov Cameron Champ *FAVORITE BET THIS WEEK
  • Cameron Champ hasn’t made a cut since February 10…He’s only made 3 tournaments all year…Meanwhile Dylan Fritelli has made 5 straight cuts. They haven’t played in too many of the similar tournaments, in fact they’ve only played in one tournament together recently and that was the Wells Fargo…Fritelli beat Champ by 7 shots.

  • 14: Brooks Koepka ov Tiger Woods
  • If Tiger was going to win a major…it was going to be Augusta. He knows the course well, it set up great for him…I learned my lesson betting against Koepka, especially at majors. Brooks looked great last week, with his length he’s going to have an advantage…and Tiger is hitting over 75% of greens in regulation. I don’t see that continuing on this course with smaller greens. Tiger’s big obstacle on this comeback tour was winning a major…he did that. I think Brooks is the more motivated golfer. Besides the Masters, tiger only has one other top 10 this year. Brooks is coming off a 2nd and a 4th.

  • 14: Hideki Matsuyama ov Bryson Dechambeau
  • Still don’t believe in Dechambeau…MC at the RBC Heritage, hasn’t played since then…one top 10 this year. Matsuyama no finishes outside the top 33…Dechambeau has 3 of those…Matsuyama has been consistently finishing ahead of him this year…I wanted to bet against Bryson…Pretty happy I got this matchup.

  • 14: Francesco Molinari ov Rickie Fowler
  • Why is Molinari +115 against Rickie Fowler in a major? This year, and last year Molinari has finished tied or better in the last 4 Majors. And this year, Molinari was better than Fowler at The Masters, Arnold Palmer, and the WGC Mexico by a combined 17 shots. Love the value on Molinari here.

  • 14: Lucas Glover ov Marc Leishman
  • Lucas Glover has a couple of missed cuts this year, but overall he’s just been better than Leishman. Starting in February, he has one top 20 finish. Glover has 6. Leishman withdrew right before the tournament last week with what he called a back issue…not sure if he’s really hurt or not, but even if he is, Leishman doesn’t show me any upside, his last 3 finishes are 58th, 49th, MC. Glover 31, 18, MC, 14, 13.

  • 14: Kevin Na ov Lee Westwood.
  • Westwood isn’t even playing much golf these days. 35th at the British Masters, awful at the Match play, 33rd in Mexico, 95th in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Kevin Na is on the upswing. One missed cut this year, and he finished 35th at the Byron Nelson, 10th at the RBC Heritage, 46th at the Masters, he was great the Match Play…Give me the young and spry Kevin Na ov the old and decrepit Lee Westwood.

  • 14: Satoshi Kodaira ov Vijay Singh
  • In the offseason we saw the videos of Vijay working out, and flipping tires…he was vowing for a comeback, and everything thought he looked great. He’s made one cut in 2019, and just shot +12 at the Masters. Kodaira has made 3 cuts in a row, inducing making the cut at The Masters. Vijay drives the ball 280 yards and hits 57% of fairways, and hits 58% of greens in regulation. That’s not going to get it done at Bethpage Black.

  • 14: Sam Burns ov Chesson Hadley
  • Chesson Hadley has been awful since his 17th place finish at the Arnold Palmer. One made cut in his last 6 tournaments, the made cut was a 65th at the Valspar. Sam Burns has actually been above average. MDF at the Byron Nelson, 9th at the Heritage, 23rd at Valero, 12th Corales, 30th Valspar. Burns has finished ahead of Hadley in 4 straight tournaments.

- April

  • 30: Phil Mickelson ov Sergio Garcia
  • Phil is so good at this tournament, it’s hard to not bet on him this week and I like this matchup. Phil won the Pro Am in February, and then had a stretch not playing very good including a couple of missed cuts at the Arnold Palmer and The Players. But he played good at The Masters, and Sergio has been trending down. Only one top 10 finish in his last 4 tournaments, and Sergio hasn’t played here since 2013. I love how Phil talked about not using driver at The Masters, and just concentrate on putting the ball in the fairway I think love the course history here for Phil, I expect a good showing from him this week.

  • 30: Paul Casey ov Gary Woodland
  • Everyone remembers how bad Casey was at The Masters, I know I do…but sometimes the best thing to do is bet on a guy if he’s coming off a bad performance. Last time Paul Casey missed the cut and played bad he came back the next week and won. The Masters he started off horrible on the front 9, and his tournament was over…I think that’s the exception. Last year Casey finished 5th here at this tournament, 12th the year before. And it’s not like Woodland has been amazing recently. Best finish in the last 3 months is 17th., only 2 tournaments inside the top 30 in that span, and he played here last year and missed the cut.

  • 30: Jason Kokrak ov Henrik Stenson
  • I can’t believe I’m going to say this, but Kokrak is the better golfer right now. 5 top 16 finishes in the last 6 tournaments for Kokrak, Stenson doesn’t have any in 2019. Kokrak better in every tournament they’ve played in together, and I looked into the stats, and I found what’s been clicking with Kokraks game this year. Kokrak is 120th in the world in par 5 scoring, Stenson is 147th. But in par 4 holes, Kokrak is 27th in the world, Stenson is 168th, and on par 3 scoring Kokrak is 14th in the world, Stenson is 148th. Kokrak 32nd. Stenson doesn’t play this tournament much, hasn’t played in the last 2 years, but before that best finish is 58th, and he’s missed the cut in 4 out of the last 5 times he’s played here.

  • 30: Joel Dahmen ov Chez Reavie
  • Dahmen is on a nice little run recently. 5 made cuts in a row here are his finishes in that time frame. 12th, 30th, 12th, 69th, 16th. He’s been really good recently. He played last year a this tournament and finished 16th, so he’s shown he can play good here. Chez Reavie hasn’t been great recently. 28th at the RBC Heritage, 56th, and 2 missed cuts before that. Reavie didn’t play here last year, but played here in 2017 and finished 42nd.

  • 30: Kyeung Hoon Lee ov Dylan Fritelli
  • I don’t love this play, but I think the wrong guy is favored so I’ll take Lee at +105. Lee Withdrew at the Valspar, I don’t know why, let’s take that tournament out. 7 made cuts in a row, nothing outside the top 50. I tried to look it up, but I think something changed with either his swing or his health. He started off 2019 with 4 missed cuts in a row. Then after that 25th, 35th, 7th, 26th, 14th, 48th, and 3rd at the Zurich with his BFF Matt Every. He’s been really good. Fritelli hasn’t been bad, but he missed the cut at the Zurich, 42nd at the Valero…Lee has finished ahead of Fritellie in 4 out of the last 5 tournaments they’ve played in together.

  • 30: Martin Laird ov Cameron Champ
  • Cameron Champ has fallen apart. Here are his last 5 finishes including the Zurich. MC, MC, WD, MC, MC. Laird hasn’t been great, but he played good at the Zurich, Made the cut at the Valero… Laird has finished ahead of Champ in 4 straight tournaments they’ve played in together.

  • 30: Matt Jones ov Adam Hadwin
  • Matt Jones has been great this year. Only one missed cut in 2019, and that was in January. 4 straight top 30 finishes. Adam Hadwin hasn’t very Adamn Hadwin-y this year. 48th at the RBC Heritage, MC at the Valsapr and Players, 33rd at the Arnold Palmer, 75th at the Genesis. Only hesitation is Hadwin finished 16th here last year, but Hadwin doesn’t seem right this year.

  • 30: Peter Malnati ov Brian Harman
  • Brian Harman sucks. 1 made cut in the last 7 tournaments. He won this tournament somehow in 2017, but finished 75th here last year. Malnati has been shockingly good this year. Here are his last 6 tournaments. 9th, 16th, 23rd, 60th, 36th, 44th. Give me Malnati over Harman all day.

  • 30: Mackenzie Hughes ov Brendan Steele
  • Brendan Steele has been really bad this year. So bad that he’s only finished ahead of Mackenzie Hughes one time this year in tournaments they’ve played in together. 7 missed cuts in the last 9 tournaments for Steele. Hughes has been on a nice run recently. 30th at the Zurich, 63rd, 42nd, 2nd, 13th before that. Steele hasn’t played here in 2 years, Hughes has made the cut here in 2018, and 2017.

  • 30: Nick Taylor ov Beau Hossler
  • 8 straight made cuts for Nick Taylor, 4 of those top 30 finishes at real tournaments, Valspar, Players, Honda Classic, Pebble Beach. He’s been good. Beau Hossler has missed the cut in 3 out of the last 4, and only has one top 30 finish in 2019. Taylor is the underdog here, and I think it’s because of course history, but lets look a little bit further into tournament history. Taylor missed the cut in 3 out of the last 4 years. Last year he missed the cut, but coming into the tournament he had missed the cut in 5 straight so he wasn’t playing good in 2018. In 2017 he finished 8th here, and coming into it he had only missed the cut in one tournament in the previous7 tournaments. So I think the tournament history isn’t indicative of how he plays this course. The constrictor has played here once, last year finished 34th. I still like Taylor.

  • 19: 2nd Round Adam Hadwin ov Corey Conners
  • 17: Kevin Kisner ov Tommy Fleetwood
  • Why is Kevin Kisner +125 against Fleetwood? Kisner was better than Tommy at the match play, better than him at the Masters, and Fleetwood has never played here. Kisner has played here before, and his last 2 finishes are 7th and 11th. I love the value at +125

  • 17: Patrick Cantlay ov Bryson Dechambeau
  • Love how Cantlay looked last week, he looked way better than Bryson who had a bit of a lucky first round, then regressed back to what I’ve seen from him recently. Right now Cantlay is a better golfer, and has finished 3rd and 7th here the last 2 years. Bryson good course history here, but I don’t think his game is nearly dialed in as Cantlays.

  • 17: Francesco Molinari ov Xander Schauffele
  • Why is Molinari an underdog here? Molinari’s last few finishes here haven’t been amazing 49th, 22nd, 45th…but those were before the new Molinari that we are seeing now. He was one hole at the Masters away from winning it, before that 3rd at the Match Play and he won a few weeks before that. What’s schauffle done recently? 2nd at the Masters? Great, he plays good at big tournaments…this isn’t a big tournament. Molinari is the better golfer.

  • 17: Kevin Na ov Daniel Berger
  • Kevin Na only has one missed cut in 2019. He was decent at The Masters, made the cut, good at the Match play, and has been fairly consistent. Not great, but not terrible. I think Daniel Berger is terrible. His best finish was in Puerto Rico on an easy course, and his last 3 finishes have been mc, 67 mc. I think he’s terrible, I think Na is decent. I like this one.

  • 10: Amen Corner Group

  • Make the cut parlay

    Rory

    DJ

    Rose

    Tiger

    Rahm

    JT

    Spieth

    Fowler

    Molinari

    Casey

    Fleetwood

    Matsuyama

    Bubba

    Phil

    Finau

    Kuchar

    Sergio

    Kisner

    Stenson

    Poulter

    Fitzpatrick

    Howell

    This Parlay pays +8000. If you add Bjerregaard to miss the cut... this pays +16000.

  • 10: Magnolia Lane Group +190
  • Make The Cut Parlay


    Rory

    DJ

    Rahm

    Molinari

    Casey

    Fleetwood

    Matsuyama

    Poulter

  • 10: Hogan Bridge Group +108
  • Make The Cut Parlay


    Phil

    Bubba

    Spieth

    Adam Scott

  • 10: Green Jacket Group +1500
  • Make The Cut PArlay


    Kisner

    Stenson

    Hoffman

    Keegan

    Grace

    Reed to Miss Cut

  • 10: White Jumpsuit Group +104
  • Make The Cut Parlay


    Kisner

    Fleetwood

    Fowler

    Tiger

    Casey

  • 10: John Daly Autograph Group +170
  • Make The Cut Parlay


    Wallace

    Howell

    Finau

    Sergio

  • 10: Champions Dinner Group +118
  • Make The Cut Parlay


    Stenson

    Poulter

    Fitzpatrick

  • 10: Pimento Cheese Sandwich Group +174
  • Make The Cut Parlay


    Rory

    DJ

    Rose

    Tiger

    Rahm

    Thomas

    Molinari

    Matsuyama

    Paul Casey

  • 10: Hideki Matsuyama ov Bryson Dechambeau
  • I’ve been saying for a few weeks that something is wrong with Dechambeau, and I’m very excited to see I get Matsuyama ov Dechambeau this week. Dechambeaus last 4 finishes are 40th at the Match play, 20th at the Players, 46th at the Arnold Palmer, and 56th at the WGC Mexico. Eye test doesn’t look good either for Dechambeau. I don’t like how he looks, he doesn’t seem confident, he looks negative and not comfortable. Matsuyama on the other hand has been steady and consistent this year. Played in 7 tournaments this year 5 top 20s, and he’s really good at Augusta. Last 4 years, 19th, 11th, 7th, 5th. Finished better than Bryson every year they’ve played together.

  • 10: Jon Rahm ov Justin Thomas
  • I like Rahm this week. He lost some weight coming into this year, and he’s been good. Take out the 45th at the WGC Mexico, and his worse finish is 12th on PGA tour. He also finished 4th last year at this tournament. Justin Thomas doesn’t have a great record here. 39th 22nd, 17, and Thomas hasn’t been great recently. Didn’t make it out of match play group, and before that finished 35th at the Players, and 30th at the Honda.

  • 10: Paul Casey ov Brooks Koepka
  • Paul Casey had that bad missed cut, and he was quoted as saying when he missed the cut at the Players he stayed at the tournament and worked on his swing. The next week he won the Valspar, the week after that he made it out of group play at the Match Play and finished 9th. I like the form he’s in right now. His last 4 years at the Masters he’s finished 15th, 6th, 4th, and 6th. Koepka didn’t play here last year, but he’s never finished inside the top 10. And I still believe in my conspiracy theory about Koepka and the PED’s.

  • 10: Sergio Garcia ov Marc Leishman
  • I’ve liked Sergio all year, I like him even more this week. Here’s the thing about Sergio. When he has screwups on the course, they’re memorable. Everyone remembers his clash with Kuchar where he messed up the gimmie putt. Everyone remembers him destroying a bunker and greens. Everyone remembers him hitting 5 balls into the water on 15. Everyone remembers that and focuses on that. Here’s what I’m focusing on. Three top 10 finishes on European tour this season. 6th at the WGC Mexico. 9th at the Honda. 22nd at the Players. 5th at the Match play. He’s also finished ahead of Leishman in 3 straight tournaments they’ve played in together. Leishman was 9th here last year, but before that 43rd, missed cut, missed cut. We bet against Sergio last year because he had a new kid…but he’s back to his normal routine, and I expect him to play great this week to make up for last years disaster.

  • 10: Henrik Stenson ov Patrick Reed
  • I like what I’m seeing out of Stenson recently. 9th at the Match play, 24th the week before and 17th 2 weeks before that. He’s been getting into form and has momentum coming into this week. And he finished 5th last year. Patrick Reed hasn’t been good recently.

    He was bad at the Arnold Palmer and then had the terrible final round at the Players. After that he was awful at the Valspar, and terrible at the Match play. Here’s the other thing. Coming off a Masters win the next year is hard. The Champions dinner. The media attention. The pressure. Take a look at some of the performances of masters winners the year after. Sergio won in 2017…missed cut in 2018. Danny Willett won in 2016…missed cut in 2017. Bubba won in 2014…37th in 2015. Bubba won in 2012…50th in 2013. Charl Schwartzel won in 2012…50th in 2013. The exception is Jordan Spieth who won in 2015 and finished 2nd in 2016. Reed doesn’t have a good record at Augusta. Before his win? MC, 49th, 22nd, MC.

  • 10: Martin Kaymer ov Kevin Tway
  • Kevin Tway is not a good golfer right now. Six straight missed cuts coming into this week, and he’s never played at the Masters. Meanwhile, Kaymer has been good this year. 5 straight made cuts on PGA tour coming into this week, and 6 made cuts in the last 7 years at the Masters including 48th, 16th, 49th the last 3 years. I get the golfer in better form, and a guy who knows this course and has a great track record of making the cut.

  • 10: Jimmy Walker ov Corey Conners
  • We went over Corey Conners starts earlier. mc, mc, mc, mc, 41st at the players, mc at the Puntacana, win the Valero. Now he’s got a short amount of time to get to Augusta and figure out that whole situation, he’s never played there. Jimmy Walker has never missed the cut at the Masters. 20th last year, 18th the year before, 29th, 37th, 8th the years before that. Walker isn’t great this year, but he does have 3 straight made cuts coming into this tournament. I’ll take his experience at Augusta ov Conners.

  • 10: Takumi Kanaya ov Jovan Rebula
  • Last year Sacker introduced us to The British Amateur Champion’s track record at the Masters, and we cashed in betting against Harry Ellis who finished dead last at +22. Since 2012 the British Amateur Champion has scored a combined +96. The best score from the British Amateur was in 2012 with +9. So who’s the British Amateur Champ this year? Jovan Rebula…a junior at Auburn. He’s Ernie Els’s nephew. He’s only 18 years old. Made 2nd team all SEC. Not even first team SEC. Takumi Kanaya is the Asia-Pacific amateur champ. He’s 20 years old, he played in the Australian Open in 2018 and finished 17th.

    2018 +23

    2017 +13

    2016 +10

    2015 +13

    2014 +12

    2013 +16

    2012 +9

  • 10: Jose Maria Olazabal ov Mike Weir
  • Not sure why we get Olazabal at +150. He’s been better than Weir at the Masters. Last year Weir +11, Jose +6. In 2017 Weir +11, Jose +9. Jose didn’t play in 2016, but Weir did…he was +10. In 2015 Weir +19, Jose +6. Jose is playing fine this year on the Champions tour, no missed cuts.

  • 10: Bets to throw a sprinkle on
  • Cameron Smith ov Gary Woodland.

    Cameron Smith has played here twice, made the cut both times, finished 5th last year. Gary Woodland has missed the cut 3 straight times here, and hasn’t been good here.

    Louis Oosthuizen ov Xander Schauffle

    Xander has played here once and finished 50th. Louis coming in off a 5th place at the Match play, 2nd the tourney before that, and has 5 straight made cuts at Augusta including 12th last year.

  • 02: Jason Kokrak ov Jordan Spieth - Billy Horschel ov Jordan Spieth
  • Not going a full bet on each...just a bit below the normal amount.


    Billy Horschel hasn’t missed a cut this year. And Spieth has not finished ahead of Horschel one time in 2019. Horschel is ahead of Spieth in the following categories. Driving accuracy, Greens in regulation, Scoring average, sand saves, strokes gained in putting, total putting, 3 putting avoidance, fedexcup points, and money earnings… BUT… Spieth is somehow ahead of Horschel in the world golf rankings by 9 spots. Also, Horschel is really good here. 11th in 2018, 4th in 2016, 3rd in 2015, 3rd in 2013

    Jason Kokrak ov Spieth…Guess who else Spieth has never finished ahead of in 2019. Jason Kokrak. Guess who else hasn’t missed the cut in 2019. Jason Kokrak. Guess who else is better than Spieth in driving accuracy, greens in regulation, scoring average, sand saves, and total putting. Jason Kokrak. Kokrak 3 top 10’s in 3 of the last 4 tournaments.

  • 02: Sung Kang ov Si Woo Kim
  • Bit of a value play here with Sung Kang ov Si Woo at +110. Not sure why Si Woo is the favorite. No real advantage here on course history, but Si Woo had a 3rd 4th finishes at the Pro Am and Genesis…but other than that not great. Si Woo was terrible at the Match Play and Kang has finished ahead of Si Woo in the last 2 tournaments they’ve played in together in March.

  • 02: Kramer Hickok ov Kyle Stanley
  • Kyle Stanley just not good this year. 6 missed cuts in the last 7 tournaments…the made cut was a 58th. Hickok has 5 straight made cuts. Hickok hasn’t played here but Kyle Stanley has, and he’s been bad. Best finish in 4 tries here was 60th.

  • 02: Graeme McDowell ov JB Holmes
  • Great win for McDowell last week, he’s been solid this year 6 straight made cuts in 2019, made the cut the last two years here, and is just overall better than Holmes right now. Like we mentioned earlier a random win by Holmes this year, 4 missed cuts, and Holmes isn’t good here. Missed cut here last year.

  • 02: Rory Sabbatini ov Scottie Scheffler
  • Scheffler’s last few finishes…2nd, 62nd, missed cut, 32nd, 5th, 7th…on the Web.com tour. Sabbatini 4 straight top 40 finishes on the PGA Tour. This is a step up in competition for Scheffler.

- March

  • 29: 3rd round plays
  • Alex Noren ov Brooks Keopka

    Koepka is in a real funk. Not sure he gives a fuck about the match today.

    Aphibarnrat ov Knox

    Stanley ov Byeong Hun An


    Aphibarnrat and Stanley have a chance to win their group and they're both playing guys who are eliminated. Love getting guys who have motivation playing guys with none.

    Jordan Spieth ov Bubba Watson

    Bubba looks like he's over this tournament. Spieth has a chance to win the group.

    Marc Leishman ov Bryson Dechambeau

    Haven't been real impressed with Dechambeau. He wasn't even that good in the match he won against Knox.

  • 28: PARLAY
  • DJ ov Grace

    Rory ov Harding

    Rahm ov JB Holmes

  • 27: Parlay: DJ ov Chez Reavie, and Rory ov Luke List
  • Parlay these 2 matchups together and we get even money.

  • 27: Rory to win his group
  • Rory at -135 to win his group. He’s got Matthew Fitzpatrick, Luke List and Justin Harding in his group. He's light years better than these guys right now.

  • 27: Justin Rose to NOT win his group
  • Rose -125 to not win his group. He’s not great here. Been over a decade since he made it out of the group round. In his group is Gary Woodland who can get hot at any time, Eddie the Pint Pepperell who’s the ultimate wildcard in this tournament, and the Grillo the pillow can always put together a few good rounds.

  • 27: Sergio to win group 16
  • Sergio Garcia to win group 16 at +190 is crazy value. Patrick Reed is in a real funk, I think he’s much more worried about defending his title at the Masters than he is match play. Shane Lowry suck, his last 3 times playing this event he hasn’t come close to coming out of his group and there’s no way Andrew Putnam wins the group.

  • 20: Sergio Garcia ov Gary Woodland
  • Love this matchup, as Sergio has finished ahead of Woodland in 3 straight tournaments they’ve played in together, and Sergio likes this place. 4th last year, and before that 7th, 16th, and 15th. Woodlands last 4 finishes here MC, 58, 42, MC. Woodland confuses me with some of his finishes, and it always comes down to his putting. And recently his putting hasn’t been great.

  • 20: Julian Etulain ov Kelly Kraft
  • Julian Etulain has only missed 1 cut in 2019. Kelly Kraft has only made 2 cuts in 2019.

  • 20: Louis Oostheuizen ov Henrik Stenson
  • Just keeping with the fade of the broken Swede Henrik Stenson. This matchup makes me nervous though, Louis has always been inconsistent, and his last 4 finishes are 56th, MC, 25th, MC. But Stenson even missed the cut here last year, and Louis’s last 2 finishes here are 7th and 16th. It’s just a fade on Stenson really.

  • 12: Lucas Glover ov Jordan Spieth
  • Fade Spieth continues. Glover’s last 3 finishes are 10th, 4th, 7th, he finished 6th here in 2017. Here’s the other thing… Spieth has struggled at this tournament for a while. 41st last year, but before that 3 straight missed cuts. Spieth has this habit this year of playing 1 great round and then 3 terrible rounds. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to bet against Spieth on all the individual rounds as well this week.

  • 12: Brooks Koepka ov Justin Rose
  • A value play here at +120, Justin Rose has showed some cracks in his game recently with a win this season, but also a 34th, missed cut at 63rd last week. I know I’ve bet against Koepka, but now that we have the information about how much Brooks loves playing in Florida, and how much he hates playing on the west coast, and this is a big time tournament where Koepka likes to show up. Also, Brooks has not lost to Rose in 3 out of the last 4 Players tournaments.

  • 12: Patrick Reed ov Phil Mickelson
  • Reed has been good, not great this year. No top 10 finishes, but no top 10’s either, but he does make the cut. Phil has missed a few cuts this year, so he’s always got that potential, but heres the biggest thing. Phil has missed cut cut here 6 out of 7 years. The time he made the cut he finished 41st. Not good here.

  • 12: Jon Rahn ov Bryson Dechambeau
  • A late addition. I don't have a whole lot of stats on this play. I just don't like what I've seen from Dechambeau. He seems out of sorts, I don't like his body language...I see in him a golfer who's not confident. I like what I've seen from Rahm this year. I'll make a play on this one.

  • 05: Billy Horschel ov Henrik Stenson
  • Throw all the stats at this tournament out the window. Stenson is terrible right now, his last 4 finishes are 54th, MC, MC, MC. Horschel is showing surprising consistency this season… 25th, 8th, 39th, 45th, 16th, so he’s making cuts and competing, and if you want to know if he’s good here, he’s never missed the cut here.

  • 05: Ian Poulter ov Phil Mickelson
  • How can’t I bet on someone on the hot streak that Poulter is one with 4 straight finishes 6th or better. Phil since his win has finished 39th and 37th, and hasn’t played here since 2013 where he missed the cut. Poulter has mad the cut 8 times in a row here, so he’s familiar with this course. I’m riding the hot hand of Poulter here.

  • 05: Martin Kaymer ov Kyle Stanley
  • I know Kyle Stanley has finished 14th and 17th in his last 2 times playing here, but he was in much better form in 2018, and 2017. Something is wrong with Kyle Stanley right now. He finished 22nd at the Sony Open, and then after that 5 missed cuts and a 58th, and the 58th was at the WGC Mexico with no cut, and only 71 players. Kaymer has been doing very Kaymer things which is making the cut in 4 out of his last 5 tournaments, played here in 2017 and finished 23rd. Fading Kyle Stanley who’s in a funk.

  • 05: Sung Jae Im ov Keith Mitchell
  • The track record of random guys playing well after a win has been well documented…when a guy plays out of his mind for one week and gets the win, generally they don’t play good after the win. Keith Mitchell is definitely random guy winning. Before his win he had 3 missed cuts and a 73rd. And while IM hasn’t been amazing recently, he had the lead briefly last week, then fell apart, but he’s been making cuts this year 4 out of 6 cuts made…I expect a rebound from IM this week, and Mitchell to fall back to earth.

  • 05: Sung Jae Im ov Keith Mitchell
  • The track record of random guys playing well after a win has been well documented…when a guy plays out of his mind for one week and gets the win, generally they don’t play good after the win. Keith Mitchell is definitely random guy winning. Before his win he had 3 missed cuts and a 73rd. And while IM hasn’t been amazing recently, he had the lead briefly last week, then fell apart, but he’s been making cuts this year 4 out of 6 cuts made…I expect a rebound from IM this week, and Mitchell to fall back to earth.

- February

  • 27: Rickie Fowler ov Brooks Koepka
  • Brooks Koepka not great. Only one top 10 in the 4 2019 tournaments he’s played in, and nothing inside the top 25 at this tournament…last time he played here in 2017 he missed the cut. Fowler wasn’t great last week, but he’s a former winner here, with several top 7 finishes here…in a tossup matchup, I’ll take Fowler over Koepka who I really think doesn’t care about a lot of these tournaments.

  • 27: Graeme Mcdowell ov Russell Henley
  • McDowell has pretty good record here. Missed the cut last year, but before that 14th, and 5th along with 3 other top 10 finishes here. He’s made the cut the last 2 tournaments he’s played in inn 2019. Henley has some weird finishes this year, but it seems to go every other week he misses the cut. 29th, MC, 66, MC, 15, MC, 44….. And he had a very random win at this tournament in 2014, but since then nothing special, nothing inside the top 24.

  • 27: Cameron Smith ov Daniel Berger
  • I don’t buy Daniel Berger for one second this week. He finished second last week at the vaunted, elite, star studded field at the Puerto Rico Open. Before that two missed cuts, and even healthy Daniel Berger has two missed cuts in 2016 and 2017.. Cameron Smiths last few finishes have been good 6th, 49th, 15th, 9th, 22nd. He’s a good player, but never played here that worries me a bit, but I think he’s in way better form than Berger. I don’t buy the hype that he’s from Florida so that means he’s going to be good this week.

  • 27: Wyndham Clark ov Brendan Steele
  • We’ve been saying it for weeks, something’s not right with Brendan Steele. He’s missing cuts at courses he’s normally very good at, and he’s been good here, bt in his 4 tournaments in 2019 he has a 57th and 3 missed cuts. Wyndham Clark finished 10th last week at the Puerto Rico, but before that 3 made cuts, 61st, 35th, 18th at real PGA Tour events.

  • 27: Martin Trainer ov Danny Lee
  • Martin Trainer won last week and has made the cut in 3 out of 4 tournaments this year. Danny Lee sucks. His finishes this year are 44th, 71st, MC, MC, and he’s played here twice and missed the cut both times. I know normally we bet against random winners, but I like the way Trainer has been playing, and anytime you can bet against Danny Lee, you’re in a good spot.

  • 27: Adam Schenk ov Anirban Lahiri
  • Let’s bet against babies. Lahiri and his wife had a baby…first tournament he played in since then, he finished last. I’ll take Adam Schenk over him this week…Schenk has made the cut in 5 out of 6 tournaments this year, and played here last year and finished 29th. Lahiri played here without the baby factor and only finished 59th.

  • 27: Matt Wallace ov Charl Schwartzel
  • Matt Wallace finished 33rd last week, and has 4 top 18 finishes in his last 6 tournaments. Charl Schwartzel is terrible right now. Congrats on his 6th place finish last week in Puerto Rico. In real tournaments with actual professional players in them before that he finished WD, MC, MC, MC, MC

  • 24: Dustin Johnson ov Rory McIlroy 4th Round
  • 19: Tom Lewis ov Kiradech Aphibarnrat
  • Tom Lewis a pretty good player on the Euro Tour. Three top 10s in the last 5 tournaments for him. A Fat Barn Rat (as we call him) has lived up to the name. He lost weight, but it appears he found it again, along with some extra weight. (Look up a pic of him last year at this time, and then this year). Last year at this tourney he finished good, but he was much thinner. He's been terrible recently missing 3 cuts in the last 4 tournaments. Lewis is the much better golfer right now.

  • 19: Bryson Dechambeau ov Brooks Koepka
  • Dechambeau is proving to be a very consistent golfer at any type of course. Five straight top 15 finishes in 2019, 4 of those top 10s…Meanwhile, Kopeka looks like he’s becoming the guy who blows off a lot of tournaments, then shows up for the majors. 57th, 9th, 24th in 2019 on the European Tour and in the tournament of Champions, and he’s played here once 2 years ago and finished 48th.

  • 19: Value Bet: Sergio Garcia ov Tommy Fleetwood +120
  • Fleetwood hasn’t been very sharp overall recently. 28th, 45th, 16th, 42nd so far this year. Sergio’s meltdown is pretty infamous, and he wasn’t great last week, but he had a bad first round, fought back to make the cut, and has a great history here at this tournament finishing 7th and 12th. I like the value of +120, and I don’t think Fleetwood should be this big of a favorite.

  • 19: Rafa Cabrera Bello ov Francesco Molinari
  • I normally try and stay away from betting on RCB, but I’m fading Molinari this year. I went over a few podcasts ago that Molinari’s 2018 season was very overrated, and he really didn’t have too much consistency. So the last tournament he played in was the tournament of champions where he was not good, finished 27th out of 31 players, and hasn’t played in a tournament since then. RCB has been in pretty good form, 22nd, 25th, 11th in 3 of his last 4 tournaments, and RCB finished 3rd here last year. Molinari played here twice, and has never been inside the top 20.

  • 19: Ian Poulter ov Henrik Stenson
  • Pretty simple bet here. Neither one of these guys have played this tournament. Pouters last 3 finishes are 6th, 3rd, 6th. Henrik Stensons are missed cut, missed cut, missed cut. And those are all three the same exact tournaments. Saudi Ariabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi.

  • 12: Hideki Matsuyama ov Jordan Spieth
  • If you listen to this podcast, you know I bet against Spieth. Last week he proved to be a great fade once again as he fell apart on the weekend shooting +7 over the last 2 days, losing the head to head to Chez Reavie, and Reavie wasn’t even that good. This week I get Matsuyama who I like, his last 2 finishes are 15th and 3rd, and Matsuyama has 3 top 23 finishes in his last 4 tournaments here. Spieth’s last 3 finishes in 2019 are 45, 35, MC

  • 12: Bubba Watson ov Bryson Dechambeau or Bubba ov Jon Rahm
  • Strictly a value play here, I get Bubba at +130 ov Dechambeau or Rahm +145? Bubba has won this tournament 3 times in 5 years, including winning last year, he withdrew in 2017 when he was using the shitty Volvik ball, so when he’s using his favorite type of golf ball his last 4 finishes are win, 14th, win win. Dechambeau finished 41st here last year, I know Dechambeau has been good, but I can’t pass up this value on Bubba, and Bubba’s last finish in 2019 was 4th at the Waste Management, so he’s in good form. Rahm has never played here.

  • 12: Sung Kang ov Abraham Ancer
  • Sung Kang has 3 top 20 finishes in his last 4 starts in 2019 and he likes this place. 16th, 22nd, 8th in the last 3 years. Abraham Ancer has missed the cut in 2 straight tournaments this year, and has only played here one time, that was last year, and he finished 68th. Sung Kang is a underdog here in this matchup which doesn’t make any sense, but I’ll take the +110.

  • 12: Michael Thompson ov Aaron Wise
  • Michael Thompson didn’t even have an invite to this tournament a week ago, so he sucks right? Wrong. He got into this tournament by finishing inside the top 10 last week, but he’s been good this year. No missed cuts, and before his top 10 last week he finished 13th, and 9th. I continue to be baffled why Aaron Wise gets so much respect from the books, and why people think he’s good. Aaron Wise has missed the cut the last 2 tournaments he’s played in, and missed the cut last year here, and Michael Thompson is +115. I don’t get it, but I’ll take it, happily.

  • 12: Betting against Babies!!!
  • Adam Schenk ov Anirban Lahiri

    Adam Schenk has finished 45, 55, 57, 67 the last 4 weeks, and finished 53rd here last year. I’m taking him big over Anirban Lahiri. Why?

    February 4 Anirban Lahiri and his wife had a baby it’s his first tournament back, and as Sacker pointed out, he’s started to have a Shane Lowry body.

    Ollie Schneiderjans ov Pat Perez

    Pat Perez’s wife told him she was pregnant in January. Here are his finishes in 2019. MC Sony Open, WD Dessert Clasic, Mc Farmers Insurance Open, MC , Pebble Beach.


  • 12: Two Value Plays at plus money I like
  • Cameron Smith ov Tommy Fleetwood

    Cameron Smith has finished 15, 9, 22 the last 3 tournaments, and finished 6th here last year. Fleetwood has 2 finishes outside the top 45 out of the last 3 weeks, and he finished 37th here last year.

    Scott Stallings ov Chez REavie

    Stallings finished 3rd last week, and finished 4th here last year. Reavie 38th last week, and the last 2 years here 73rd and MC.

  • 05: Trey Mullinax ov Pat Perez
  • There’s a pregnancy in Pat Perez’s life…and as we went over before, his last 3 tournaments have been MC, WD, MC. Meanwhile, Trey Mullinax is playing good golf, and has gotten better in 4 straight weeks. 5th at the Sony, 34th at the Dessert Classic, 25th at the Farmers, 15th at the Waste Management. He’s in much much better form than Perez, and Mullinax has played here twice, made the cut both times…47th and 14th, so no real advantage in course history.

  • 05: Shane Lowry ov Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • This is a weird tournament, a weird format, multiple courses…I’m a bit worried about guys that have never played this tournament. Matthew Fitzpatrick has never played here, and not only that Shane Lowry has played here the last 4 years, never missed the cut, even has a 21st and a 14th. Lowry won the Abu Dhabi, then finished 12th in Dubai, so he’s coming in strong. Fitzpatrick had a good finish at Dubai, but Lowry was still ahead of him, and it looks like Lowry has lost a bit of weight, and he looks better. I like him this week.

  • 05: Chez Reavie ov Jordan Spieth
  • I’ve been against Spieth this year…I’m still betting against him. The last tournament he was in he had one good round. Started -7 on some incredible putting. He finished the tournament… -7. He gained no shots the rest of the tournament. Before that he had 2 missed cuts. Chez Reavie has been one of the sneakiest good golfers on tour. 4th at the Waste Management, 28th before that, 3rd at the Sony Open, and really good in the reach around. I like where Reavies game is at right now, I don’t like where Spieths game is. Spieth has great course history here you say? Chez Revie finished 2nd here last year, 18 spots ahead of Jordan Spieth.

- January

  • 30: European Picks
  • Sergio Garcia ov Patrick Reed

    Bryson Dechambeau ov Dustin Johnson

    Victor Dubuoisson ov Richard Sterne

  • 30: Phil Mickelson ov Rickie Fowler
  • Rickie Fowler had one good round last week playing with his new ball. He said that changing the brand of ball you play with is the single biggest equipment change you can make. On the easy ass north course, he shot -6 on one day. The other 3 days he shot a combined 5 over par. He loves this place, I’m sure he’ll work with his new ball, but Phil loves this place. Last 3 finishes here 11th, 4th, 2nd. So even if Fowler is good, Phil is probably going to be good as well, and I can’t pass up +160

  • 30: Andrew Putnam ov Emiliano Grillo
  • Grillo was good in the reach around season…but it’s not the reach around season. He finished 52nd last week, and he’s played here 3 times with no finishes inside the top 45. He didn’t drive the ball very long last week, but that was because he used 3 wood off the tee. On this course, he can let the big dog eat, and carve up the par 5s. He’s a solid up and coming player…I love him as the underdog.

  • 30: Taylor Gooch ov Brendan Steele
  • 27: Two round 4 picks
  • Finau ov Day

    Willett ov Xander

  • 27: Charles Howell ov Tiger Woods round 4
  • A really crazy round for Howell. Tons of very short missed putts, and I think that's really what contributed to the +3 score today. I think that's a one round aberration, and I expect Howell to be back to his normal self tomorrow. Tiger was very shaky today, I don't see how it gets better, and getting Howell +140 in this matchup is great value.

  • 25: Two Big Underdogs To Play Today
  • Adam Long ov Gary Woodland

    Brendan Steele ov Patrick Cantlay


    Adam Long is +145 over Gary Woodland, and Woodland had an ice cold day putting yesterday. The odds are too good of value

    I liked Cantlay coming into this week, but he was atrocious yesterday. Steele was solid yesterday, and he's always pretty good at this tournament. +150 is way too much value to pass up.

  • 25: Rory McIlroy ov Rickie Fowler
  • Rickie clearly is struggling with the new type of ball he's playing with. He really struggled with controlling it yesterday. Rory wasn't great yesterday, but I don't think Rickie can adjust to the new ball on a new course overnight.

  • 23: Anders Albertson ov Brian Harman
  • Going to continue to bet against Brian Harman, as he is awful form right now. Books are starting to catch up, and not give us great matchups, but I'll take Anders Albertson, who is coming off the Web.com tour, but has been solid in his PGA tour events. In the reach around season he finished 15th, 55th, 28th, 5th, and then in the Dessert Classic he finished a respectable 34th, which was 14 shots better than Harman. Albertson has played in 3 tournaments with Harman since November, and has finished ahead of Harman in all of them.

  • 22: Marc Leishman ov Tiger Woods
  • I don’t buy Tiger Woods being great this week, all you hear about is how good Tiger is at this course, and that was true 10-15 years ago. Last year here he finished 23rd, the year before that he missed the cut, in 2014 he finished 80th…and I get Marc Leishman at even money who’s last 5 finishes are 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 18th, and a win…and last year at this tournament he finished 8th. In fact, the last 3 times they’ve played this tournament, Leishman has finished ahead of Tiger Woods. I don’t know what Tiger’s been doing over the break, but the last time I saw him play was against Phil and he was terrible.

  • 22: Tony Finau ov Rickie Fowler
  • It’s one of me and KJ’s rules…wait til you get to the Waste Management before you start supporting Rickie Fowler. I don’t know what happens to him, but we went over it earlier, Fowler has 4 missed cuts and a 61st in his last 5 times player here. The very next week at the Waste Management in the last 3 years, 11, 4, 2. Finau has finished 4th and 6th here in the last 2 years, we all know how good Finau is, I said I wanted to be on him this year…I’ll start this week.

  • 22: Daniel Berger ov Billy Horschel
  • I went out on a limb last week and predicted a strong comeback week from Daniel Berger last week, and he delivered with a solid 12th place finish and a 1 shot win over Harold Varner. I’m going to keep riding his momentum this week over Billy Horschel who for whatever reason plays great later in the year but not early in the year. Last year starting with this tournament Horschel went 54, 43 5 missed cuts and 54th. The year before that looks pretty similar, 64th here at the Farmers, then 24th, then missed cut. Berger didn’t play this tournament last year, I’m gonna stand by my opinion that Daniel Berger is back and healthy.

  • 22: Si Woo Kim ov Adam Scott +115
  • I think Adam Scott is a mess, he was terrible at the Sony Open with a +7 missed cut, he’s already come out and said he’s not playing the WGC events this year, and that his schedule is going to be different. He’s just seemed all out of sorts. Si Woo wasn’t great at the Sony Open, he missed the cut by a shot, but finished well ahead of Adam Scott, he was much better last week at the Dessert Classic finishing -13. Also, Adam Scott has never played this tournament, Si Woo has played it 3 times, he withdrew once, and then finished 35th and 18th.

  • 22: SungJae Im ov Luke List +110
  • Im was great in 2018 on the Web.com tour, and I’ve been impressed with him so far, so I’m hoping this week he keeps it up. He was a little up and down in the reach around season, but he finished 16th at the Sony Open and 12th at the Dessert Classic. If he’s the real deal on the PGA Tour we have to take advantage now while there’s still value on him. Going back to the 2018 season, in his last 12 tournaments, Luke List has missed the cut 6 times, and even though he finished 12th here last year, he missed the cut the two previous years. I love getting this matchup with IM as the underdog.

  • 22: Alex Noren ov Jordan Spieth
  • Gotta keep fading Jordan Spieth until he gets his game back on track. He dropped to his lowest world ranking in 5 years, he sounded completely lost in his post tournament quotes after missing the cut last week, his last 3 tournaments he’s finished 55th, missed cut, missed cut. And this week we get Alex Noren at plus money over Spieth, and his last 3 finishes are 18th, 18th, 8th, and last year he finished 2nd at this tournament losing to Jason Day in extra holes, and if you look back to last year, Alex Noren was really good around this time of year on the PGA Tour.

  • 19: Hadwin ov Harman round 3 -1/2 stroke
  • Harman is really struggling with his game right now. Hadwin looks to make a move to the lead today.

  • 16: Daniel Berger ov Harold Varner III
  • In the past I bet against guys coming back from injury, and I feel like I lose those a lot because the books have already accounted for that in the matchup. Also, the player is rested, adrenaline, and if the golfer is actually healthy, we have a big advantage. I’m betting Daniel Berger is healthy in his comeback, and I get him against Harold Varner who has played ok in the reach around, but he’s played this tournament the last 3 years, and has never made the cut. The format doesn’t suit him well for whatever reason, I’ll take Berger…don’t call it a comeback.

  • 16: Charl Schwartzel ov Zach Johnson
  • I don't know why anyone is +135 against a struggling Zach Johnson, but they have Schwartzel as a big underdog to Zach Johnson who has missed the cut in 2 out of the last 3 tournaments he’s played in, he just lost his caddie, and I don’t like where’s he at right now. Schwartzel has never played here, but Zach has…last year he finished 20th, the previous 3 years he missed the cut, so he doesn’t have a great record here recently…I love the value here fading Zach.

  • 16: Si Woo Kim ov Brian Harman
  • I said before the season started that I wanted to fade Brian Harman, I didn’t like the odds last week, I should’ve laid the juice as Harman was awful last week. Si Woo wasn’t a ton better but he finished ahead of him. Going back to the last 2 tournaments of 2018, Si Woo has finished ahead of Brian Harman in 5 straight tournaments. Harman has good course history, but I went over this on the first podcast of the year. Be careful at looking at Harman’s course history because last year he was in good form coming into this tournament and he finished 20th. The year before that he was in good form and he finished 3rd. This is a different year, it’s a different type of form for Harman right now.

  • 16: Bud Cauley ov Chesson Hadley
  • Both these guys are in similar form, but I can’t ignore the finishes at this tournament…Bud Cauley really likes playing here…Chesson Hadley does not. Last 3 finishes for Bud Cauley at this tournament 14, 3, 14…last 4 finishes for Chesson Hadley… 42, mc, mc, mc. And what’s crazy is Chesson Hadley was in phenomenal form last year when he came into this tournament and finished 42nd…this year he’s in way worse form.

  • 15: Abu Dhabi Plays
  • Tommy Fleetwood +145 ov Dustin Johnson

    Love the value here. Fleetwood has won the last 2 times here and we get +145 against DJ.

    Henrik Stenson +120 ov Tyrell Hatton

    Stenson's last 3 finishes here are 3rd, 8th, 8th. Hatton's last 3 finishes are 15th, 13th, 46th. Love Stenson to have a great rebound season recovering from the elbow injury.

    Ryan Fox ov Victor Perez

    Perez hasn't played in the quality of tournaments that Fox has. Fox made the cut at 3 of the majors last year, and has decent history here. Perez never played here, and this tournament is a step up in class for him.

  • 13: Parlay: Matsuyama ov Cink, and Dechambeau ov Reavie
  • 11: Woodland ov Dechambeau rd 2
  • 10: Marc Leishman ov Jordan Spieth
  • I said last week I like Leishman this year, I think he has upside, and Spieth was on my list of guys I want to bet against so this play makes a ton of sense. Leishman was solid last week, that makes 3 top 4 finishes in 3 of his last 4 tournaments played, and he’s never missed the cut at this tournament. The last time we saw Spieth he was missing cuts and finishing outside the top 50 in the reach around season. Spieth got married, I really wonder how sharp he’s going to be to start the season.

  • 10: Hideki Matsuyama ov Matt Kuchar
  • A guy who was on my list of guys I want to bet on this year against a guy who was on my list of guys I want to bet against? I’ll take it. Kuchar wasn’t terrific last week, finished 19th out of 32 golfers, and I’m just not a believer in him. He finished the 2018 season going 43rd, 60th, MC. He got the win at the Mayakoba, but let me tell you the competition he faced there. Here is the top 5 of that tournament. Matt Kuchar, Danny ee, JJ Spain, Richy Werenski, Brice Garnett. Sorry if I’m not blown away by that field. Not much to look at with tournament history here, Kuchar hasn’t played here in 3 years, Matsuyama finished 2018 strong, 4th, 15th, 4th, 15th, 11th. He’s back from that crazy wrist injury…I really like him this year.

  • 10: Gary Woodland ov Justin Thomas
  • This is just a value play for me…Woodland should not be this big of an underdog right now to anyone. He’s +155, and the fact is he’s finished tied or better than Justin Thomas in the last 4 tournaments they’ve played in together.

  • 10: Jerry Kelly ov Johnson Wagner
  • A weird bet, I know, but here are the numbers. Jerry Kelly has an incredible track record here, including 14th last year, and 3 top 10s in a row in 2014, 2015, 2016. Johnson Wagner has actually won this tournament in 2012. But in all other tournaments here since 2011 he’s missed the cut!!! How did Jerry Kelly do last year on the Champions Tour? No missed cuts, 14 top 20 finishes, so he’s in decent enough form for me to support. Wagner has played in a few tournaments in the reach around season, and was terrible. 25th, 35th, and 54th, he wasn’t good in 2018…in fact he played in 3 web.com events and missed the cut in all 3 of those.

  • 02: Cameron Champ ov Francesco Molinari
  • Sound crazy, but I have Champ at +150 ov Molinari. Look, I get it. Pump the brakes on Champ, he’s young, there’s not way he keeps up with these guys yet. I’m not so sure about that. He was really good in the reach around which are low scoring courses, and he was able to take advantage. In 5 tournaments, he shot a combined 71 shots under par. I watched him play, he’s known for his long drives, but he does have a decent short game, and on a course that sets up will for long ball and decent short games…I like him here. Molinari had a great year, right? In June starting with the Quicken Loans, he won that, then finished 2nd at the John Deere, then won the British, then finished 39th at the WGC Bridgestone, then 6th at the PGA Championship. Let’s look at the rest of the year. Take those tournaments out…he only had one other top 10, but he also had 3 missed cuts and an additional 7 finishes outside the top 20. How has he been since the end of the 2018 season? 56th, 43rd, 26th. I’m wondering if Molinari just had a very very hot stretch, and we are over valuing him. By the way, Molinari has played here only one time years ago, and finished 15th.

  • 02: Bubba Watson ov Aaron Wise
  • I bet against Aaron Wise a lot last year, I’ll do it again here. Both have been decent in a couple reach around events, but I like Bubba’s course history over Aaron Wise’s first time here. Bubba finished 25th here the last time he played here, but that was when he was using the terrible volvik ball. Before that he had 3 straight top 10 finishes here including a 4th. I like Bubba this year, I liked how comfortable he looked last year with a golf ball he liked, I think he builds on it this year, and I get Bubba at even money in this matchup.

  • 02: Brooks Koepka ov Rory McIlroy
  • Rory hasn’t finished inside the top 20 in his last 3 tournaments this fall, and he’s never played here. Brooks had a bad finish here last year in 34th, but that was when he hurt his wrist and had to take a couple months off. I think Brooks is a top 2 golfer in the world…I’d love to bet on him a lot this year. I’ll start this week.

  • 02: Marc Leishman ov Paul Casey
  • Paul Casey has been his steady top 20 self in the reach around, but nothing in the top 10, and he finished 2018 fairly weak with several finishes outside the top 30. Meanwhile, Leishman has a tournament he won recently at the CIMB, and he had a 7th place finish here last year. Paul Casey hasn’t played here since 2010 where he finished 10th. I like Leishman this year, I think he has some upside this year…I’m willing to take the upside I think he has over what I know Paul Casey is which is steady, with little to no upside.

2018

- November

  • 28: Justin Thomas ov Tiger Woods
  • The last two times Tiger has played, he was awful. The Ryder Cup and the Phil head to head. Yes, those are weird formats, but I still can't get out of my head that Tiger still can't hit fairways off the tee. Losing to Phil is inexcusable in head to head, and I know he played great at the end of the year, but I think he got very lucky at the BMW to finish like he did hitting out of the rough the whole Sunday. The win at East Lake was impressive, but I think that was more the exception. Justin Thomas is so good, he's been fine in the two tournaments in the reach around season...I'll take JT over Tiger every time they put this matchup out this year.

  • 28: Justin Rose ov Dustin Johnson
  • Throw out all the stats from previous years. I don't think Dustin Johnson is in a good place with his family life, and it sure looks like it's affecting his golf game. He was terrible at the Ryder Cup, and only managed to finish 30th at the WGC. And Justin Rose has been outspoken saying that he wants to be the number one player in the world, and he wants to stay there. I'll take it. I've said I'm going to be fading Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson in 2019...I'll start now.

  • 06: Tony Finau ov Jordan Spieth
  • Spieth is playing this week and last week to comply with the PGA's rule about playing new tournaments. He's getting married, and going on a honeymoon soon and he's using and trying out new equipment for these couple tournaments. So I'm pretty sure he's not real motivated. FInau has no distractions, and has been the better golfer the last 6 months.

  • 06: Si Woo Kim ov Cameron Champ
  • Cameron Champ is known for his long drives…this course is short. There’s no advantage for the long drives, so I think that takes away his advantage. SiWoo’s finishes in the reach around 10th, 23rd, 15th. I like him in this matchup. Also, SiWoo is an underdog. That’s ridiculous. The hype train a bit out of control on Cameron Champ.

  • 06: Gary Woodland ov Emiliano Grillo
  • Woodlands finishes in the wrap around season…5th, 2nd, 10th. Grillo's have been 41st, 2nd, 55th, 14th. I'll be beating on Gary Woodland a lot moving forward.

- October

  • 03: Joaquin Nieman ov Phil Mickelson
  • Phil does not look like he's in a good place with his golf game now. Not really sure why he's playing this tournament right after the Ryder Cup, but I don't trust him. Nieman is a good up and comer, I like him to do well in the reach around season.

- September

  • 27: Tiger/Reed ov Molinari/Fleetwood
  • Love Patrick Reed in this event, and I see Tiger coming in playing incredible.  I'm not concerned about Tiger's history at the Ryder Cup.  This is a different Tiger.  He approaches golf, and life different now.  That gallery is going to be an absolute circus, and Reed and Tiger love it.  Not sure Molinari and Fleetwood will love it.  Also, I have to wonder how many people will be there actually rooting for Tiger, and not the Euros.  

  • 18: Justin Rose ov Dustin Johnson
  • With everything that’s going in Dustin Johnson’s life, I can’t imagine his head is all there, and that might explain why his game has seemed to slip a bit the last few weeks.  DJ’s been good, but not great, and Rose has been great the last 2 weeks finishing 2nd in back to back weeks.  Rose finished better than Dustin here last year, and in the 6 times they’ve played together here, Rose has finished better than Dustin in 5 of those years.

  • 18: Bubba Watson ov Paul Casey
  • Something is up with Paul Casey.  A 21st a 60th, and a WD in the last tournament with a back injury.  He’s got a great track record here, but I suspect there’s something wrong with his back that he’s not completely sharing with us.  Bubba has finished ahead of Casey in every single tournament in the FedEx Cup, and the last 2 times Bubba has played here he’s finished 10th and 5th.  Best part about this bet?  Bubba is for some reason +125.

  • 18: Tommy Fleetwood ov Jon Rahm
  • As everyone knows, I’m not a Jon Rahm fan…and Tommy Fleetwood has finished ahead of Jon Rahm in all 3 of the FedEx Cup tournaments.  Fleetwood hasn’t played here…I don’t care.  I just think I’m getting the better golfer here.

  • 04: Francesco Molinari ov Rickie Fowler
  • 04: Phil Mickelson ov Webb Simpson
  • 04: Marc Leishman ov Henrik Stenson
  • 04: Cameron Smith ov Tyrell Hatton

- August

  • 29: Brooks Koepka ov Dustin Johnson
  • Why is Brooks Koepka +145 against Dustin Johnson.  I don’t have any crazy stats…I don’t have amazing theories about how a course sets up better…I just know I watched Dustin Johnson have 2 triple bogeys and a double last week, and Brooks was better than him.  And I can get Brooks at +145?!?  Incredible value. 

  • 29: Adam Scott ov Jon Rahm
  • Every year there are a couple of guys who come alive at the end of the year…it sure looks like Adam Scott may be one of the guys this year.  3rd at the PGA championship, 5th last week, 17th at The British.  Rahm is a basket case.  Missed the cut last week, that’s 3 missed cuts in 7 tournaments, and he just doesn’t ever live up to his talent.  I think I’m catching Adam Scott who is on a hot streak, and I’ll take him at +120 over Rahm who continues to be frustratingly inconsistent.

  • 29: Tommy Fleetwood ov Henrik Stenson
  • I’m telling everyone, I think Stenson’s elbow injury is worse than people think, and worse than he’s letting on.  Before the injury his worse finish was 26th.  Since he came back from the injury he’s finished 35th, 39th, MC, and 20th at the Wyndham with a weak field.  I think he’s just trying to muscle through the injury, and this course rewards long hitters, and Stenson isn’t a long hitter to begin with.  Fleetwood has finished better than Stenson in 4 straight tournaments, and on a course where distance is key, Fleetwood out drives Stenson by 17 yards, and those stats are largely based on a healthy Henrik.

  • 29: Cameron Smith ov Matt Kuchar
  • Cameron Smith is making a run at a top finish in the FedEx Cup playoffs, he’s finished ahead of Kuchar in 4 out of the last 6 tournaments, Kuchar has missed the cut in 3 out of 6 tournaments, his last 2 finishes are missed cut and 60th…Cameron Smith has 5 straight made cuts including a 3rd place finish last week…and I get Cameron Smith at +150?!?!  I’ll take it!!!  We said it last week, it just looks like Kuchar is slowing down, he wasn’t good last week, barley made the cut, and he’s just not having those incredible rounds.  In the last 22 rounds he only has one round under 68 and that was a 67.  He’s just not going low at these tournaments that he should be.  In fact, if you look at his finishes recently, the only tournaments he’s doing good at are hard courses where you just punch it out into the fairway, put it on the green, 2 putt, walk off with a par.  He’s a safe golfer, but can’t put up those big numbers.  Cameron Smith showed me the last few weeks he’s capable of having those low rounds on courses you should be able to carve up.  Every round last week was -2 or better.

  • 21: Tiger Woods ov Jason Day
  • I can’t believe I’m betting on Tiger ov Jason Day, but Tiger looks on a mission, and these numbers don’t lie.  Tiger has finished ahead of Jason Day in 4 of the last 5 tournaments they’ve played in together.  Here’s the other thing.  Jason Day hasn’t cracked into the top 10 since The Players.  So Day has been good, but not elite.  Tiger has 3 top 6 finishes in his last 4 tournaments, and the other thing I love about this play is that this course can be navigated without driver.  Three woods, and irons can be used off the tees, and that’s been Tigers big problem.  Hit no fairways on the front 9 at the PGA, and still finished 2nd.  

  • 21: Ian Poulter ov Phil Mickelson
  • 21: Tony Finau ov Matt Kuchar
  • 21: Abraham Ancer ov Aaron Wise
  • Since his win, Aaron Wise has made the cut 1 time in 7 tournaments.  This is just a fade of him.  Abraham Ancer has been ok, not great…7 made cuts in the last 10 tournaments he’s played in, and since Aaron Wise’s win, they’ve played in 2 tournaments together…Ancer has beaten him in both of those.

  • 21: Brian Gay ov Chesson Hadley
  • Brian Gay has been shockingly good recently, while Chesson Hadley continues his lackluster end to the season.  Brian Gay has 1 missed cut in then last 11 tournaments, including 6 top 20s in that span.  Chesson Hadley started out pretty strong, and had a good middle of the year, but it was mostly playing in weak tournaments like the Houston Open, RBC Heritage, Valero, and Zurich.  But now as we get into the tough tournaments he missed the cut at the US Open, Travelers, The British, and PGA Championship, 72nd at the John Deere and 45th at the Wyndham.

  • 15: Webb Simpson ov Henrik Stenson
  • Don’t forget about Stenson’s elbow injury that forced him to take a break.  Since he’s come back he’s finished 35th, 39th, and missed cut.  Webb has been solid recently, 19th at the PGA Championship, 24th the week before, 12th at The British.  Plus, Webb loves it here…I know Henrik has the win last year, but I think the elbow is an issue for him right now.

  • 15: Alex Cejka ov Bill Haas
  • Bill Haas is done this year.  3 straight missed cuts, here are his last 7 finishes.  MC, MC, MC, 72, MC, 71.  Even last year here he finished 75th.  Bill Haas missed the cut at the Barracuda m and the Military Tribue at The Greenbriar.  Alex Cejka hasn’t bee playing in the best tournaments, but he has 7 straight made cuts.  Since May he’s been pretty decent, only 1 missed cut since then, and has beat Haas in 5 straight head to head matchups.

  • 15: CT Pan ov Chesson Hadley
  • Chesson Hadley started off the year great, and then has done nothing.  4 missed cuts in his last 6 tournaments, including 2 straight.  CT has one missed cut in 10 tournaments, and the other crazy thing about Hadley is that he’s missed the cut in 5 out of the 6 times he’s played here.  The one time he did make the cut he finished 57th.

  • 08: Miss The Cut Parlay $50 pays $33,000
  • 08: Make the Cut Parlay $100 to win $28,000
  • 07: Tommy Fleetwood ov Jordan Spieth
  • Tommy Fleetwood can be inconsistent, but I love what I see from him right now.  Here are his last few finishes on the PGA Tour.  7th at The Players, 2nd at The US Opien, 12th at the British, 6th at the Canadian, 14th at the Bridgestone.  In fact, he’s actually been pretty consistent on the PGA Tour.  One missed cut, and 10 out of 12 tournaments this year he’s finished 26th or better, so I feel good supporting him in this spot.  Spieth has had 1 good finish recently, a 9th at the British but he got the great draw with the good weather tee times on Thursday and Friday, and then on Sunday his putting woes showed up again and he blew it.  Spieth was terrible at Bridgestone, finished 60th, at +5.  On a course with tough greens, I don’t see him competing.

  • 07: Francesco Molinari ov Jon Rahm
  • I just don’t trust Jon Rahm in majors.  And this year, at the US Open, and the British Open, the two majors where they don’t play at the same course every year, he missed the cut at both of them.  I think he’s too emotional, and gets bent out of shape after bad shots, and here we are at another tough course for a major…a technical course that is going to make the golfers deal with adversity, and I don’t trust him.  Meanwhile, Molinari has played great at the two recent majors winning the British, and this course isn’t super long, 7300 yards, but you need good approaches and great putting, and thats what Molinari has done recently.  

  • 07: Ian Poulter ov Sergio Garcia
  • Even though we lost the bet to Sergio last week, Sergio was bad.  39th finish, but Adam Scott managed to suck even worse than him, and I’m still ready to bet against him.  Along with being bad recently, he has terrible history at the PGA Championship tournament.  Here are his last 6 finishes.  MC, MC, 54, 35, 61, MC.  Strange.  Poulter was good last week, finished 10th, before that 12th, only 1 finish outside the top 30 in 3 month.

  • 07: Jim Furyk ov Matt Wallace
  • We talk all the time about betting against random guys who win a tournament and then suck after.  Matt Wallace won the BMW International, but before that he was terrible and missed the cut at the US Open.  Then after his win, 4 straight missed cuts and combined at the Open de France, Irish Open, Scottish Open, and the British…He’s a combined +22 in 8 rounds.  Jim Furyk, 45th at the Canadian Open -9, Greenbriar 47th -4, Made the Cut at the US Open…so he hasn’t been completely terrible.  I trust him more here than I do Matt Wallace.

  • 07: Danny Willet ov Chris Kirk
  • I can’t believe it, but it appears Danny Willet is having a resurgence.  Sacker called me a couple months ago, and said to me that he was watching the Euro Tour early one morning and Willet looked really good, and that he started to have some confidence.  Since then, he finished 6th at the Irish Open, 19th at the Scottish, and 24th at the British Open.  He almost made the cut at the US Open, and since then 3 great finishes.  And when you watch him, he looks in control, and dialed in.  Before when you’d watch him, he’d just be wondering around, swinging with no confidence, he’d come out of his swing…but now he looks good.  Chris Kirk is Chris Kirk…last 3 finishes 23rd, 40th, 76th…and Kirk has missed the cut the last 3 times he’s played in the PGA Championship.

  • 07: Zach Johnson ov Davis Love III
  • Zach Johnson is -345 over Davis Love the III.  Davis’s best finish this year is 44th and that was at the Barbasol Tournament.  He finished right behind DA Points, Josh Teater and DJ Trahan.  Take out the Barbasol, and he’s played 17 rounds on Tour.  Only 1 round was under 71.  Those tournaments are the John Deere, RBC Heritage, Puntacana, Arnold Palmer, and the Valspar.  Zach has 5 straight top 20 finishes on tour.

- July

  • 31: Adam Scott ov Sergio Garcia
  • I’m just going to keep betting against Sergio til he keeps beating me.  I’ve been critical of Adam Scott this year, and for good reason, but he’s actually been getting better as the year goes on.  6 made cuts in 7 tournaments including a 17th at the British.  Since Sergio had his baby, They’ve played in 5 tournaments together.  Adam Scott has beat him all 5 times.  They keep putting Sergio in matchups…I’ll keep betting against him.

  • 31: Alexander Bjork ov Aaron Wise
  • Just loooooove betting against Aaron wise since his win at the Byron Nelson.  Since then, he hasn’t made a cut in 5 tournaments, including the Military Tribute at The Greenbriar, and the John Deere.  So I know what you’re thinking… CUE KJ!!! Glad you asked KJ…Alexander Bjork plays on the European Tour and in his last 8 tournaments on the Euro Tour he’s finished 43rd, 4, 4, 4, 27th, win, 3rd, 39th..  Missed the cut at the British, but I’ll happily take a guy who’s won and then had success after a win over a guy who wins a tournament and then throws up all over himself in the following tournaments.

  • 24: Ian Poulter ov Sergio Garcia
  • 24: Keegan Bradley ov Byeung Hun An FIRST ROUND
  • 19: First round scores
  • Brooks is +158 and Dustin is +140 on these plays.  I see them able to play the par 5's in -2 or -3...and then able to overpower several of the par 4's.  As long as they avoid the big disaster hole, I love the plus money here.

  • 19: Miss the cut parlay
  • Decent value on Bubba who struggles on links golf courses, and Phil who has been bad lately.

  • 18: Miss the cut parlay
  • 18: Make the cut parlay
  • 18: Make the Cut Parlay
  • 17: Brooks Koepka ov Jordan Spieth
  • Pretty simple pay here.  Jordan Spieth has been struggling mightily with his game, especially his putting, and it’s bleeding over into the other parts of his game.  In his last 6 tournaments, he has no top 20 finishes, and he’s missed the cut in 2 of the last 3 tournaments he’s played in.  Jordan can let his head get in the way of his game, and he can over think things, and him putting the pressure on himself of being defending champ I think is going to be a problem this week.  Koepka is just incredible right now.  Win at the US Open, then follows it up with a top 20 finish the very next week.  He’s the type of player that thrives in big tournaments.  Love him this week.

  • 17: Justin Thomas ov Jordan Spieth
  • All the reason mentioned above about Jordan Spieth's struggles, Justin Thomas not great history at the British Open, but he’s been playing much better than Spieth recently, consistently finishing better than him in tournaments they play in together.

  • 17: Francesco Molinari ov Sergio Garcia
  • We made a ton of money betting against Sergio this year, and it looks like he’s playing better with his last 2 finishes on the Euro tour being 12th and 8th.  That’s great.  Molinari’s last 5 finishes are 25th, 2nd, 2nd, win, win.  I love the way he’s playing right now, I’m not ready to say that Sergio is back and ready to win a major.

  • 17: Henrik Stenson ov Tiger Woods
  • Stenson is dealing with an elbow injury, and I feel like every time we doubt a professional athlete with an injury, they prove us wrong.  So if Stenson is healthy enough to tee it up at the British, Im going to believe he’s healthy enough to compete at a high level.  Stenson finished 5th at the Masters, 6th at the US Open, and in the last 8 tournaments, his worse finish is 26th.  He’s elite.  I just don’t believe in Tiger at big time events any more.  In the two majors this year with stacked fields, Tiger missed the cut at the US Open, and finished 32nd at the Masters.  I think Stenson will be fine, and even if he can’t swing as hard off the tee, he gets the hard fairways with the long rolls, and I trust his irons and short game.

  • 17: Russell Knox ov Bubba Watson
  • Bubba is not a good links player.  I’m not sure what it is, but here are Bubba’s finishes the last 10 years at the British Open.  27th, 39th, mc, mc, 32, 23, 30, mc, mc.  He’s terrible on these types of courses.  Meanwhile, Knox has been good recently.  Hasn’t missed a cut in 8 tournaments, and 2 out of the last 3 tournaments on the Euro Tour he finished top 5.  He didn’t play in the Masters, but he finished 12th at the US Open, so he’s not afraid of the majors.

  • 17: Ian Pouter ov Phil Mickelson
  • Pretty easy play for me.  Poulter is playing great, Phil is not.  Phil’s last 3 finishes are 48th, 65th, and then a missed cut last week at the Scottish, which is supposed to be a tune up for the British.  Poulter meanwhile has been solid all year, 6 top 25 finishes in the last 7 tournaments, and he easily beat Phil head to head last week, and at the US Open.

  • 17: British Open winner is American.. +145
  • The last 5 major winners are Americans in their 20s, and Americans have won 3 out of the last 5 British Opens.  I love the value at +145

  • 17: Matt Jones ov Cameron Smith
  • We’ve said before something happened to Cameron Smith at the Zurich.  He and his partner played great in the first round, then here are his rounds since then.  76, 76, 75, 79, 74, 75, 72, 79, 72.  Played last week, made the cut barely, and that was the first made cut he’s had since the Masters.  Matt Jones a little all over the board, he’s got 5 made cuts in the last 8 tournaments, and finished 12th last week.

  • 17: Oliver Wilson ov Sam Locke
  • Oliver Wilson is a professional golfer.  He’s played in 6 European Tour tournaments this year…made the cut in 4 of them, and those were the last 4 tournaments he’s played in. 16th, 32nd, 49th, and 29th.  He tweeted out that he’s at Carnoustie, excited at the course set up, and looking for a great finish.  

    Sam Locke is a 19 year old barista, who won a random qualifier.  He won The Renaissance Club qualifying event last Tuesday…and the next day he was making latte’s and cappuccino’s at the Paul Lawrie Academy…and he was serving coffee to…Paul Lawrie.  Lawrie said… “He’s a top lad who deserves all the plaudits coming his way.  And he’s got loads of time to prepare.”  Time to prepare?!?  For what?!?!  He’s got one week and figure out a way to play at the British Open?!?  Give me a break.

  • 09: Andy Sullivan ov Matt Kuchar
  • Sullivan has been great recently, where Kuchar is looking like he’s starting to slow down.  Five out of Sullivan’s last 7 tournaments have been top 10 finishes, where Kuchar has none in his last 8 tournaments.  Sullivan also really likes this tournament with 2 finishes of 9th and 6th the last 2 years.  Kuchar has good course history here, but I look at his recent history, and I think he’s starting to fade.

  • 09: Ian Poulter ov Phil Mickelson
  • Poulter has 6 top 25 finishes coming into this event, and has been great this year.  Phil has been a bit of a mess.  Had the US Open debacle, and since then has no top 10 finishes and his last 2 tournaments have resulted in 48th and 65th.  Poulter finished 9th here last year, Phil didn’t play, but before that no top 10s since 2013.

  • 09: Patrick Rogers ov Aaron Wise
  • Broken record playing a bet against Aaron Wise, but I’ll keep betting against him.  Since his win…4 straight made cuts.  He had two tournaments in a row where he finished 1st and 2nd…besides that he’s been terrible this year.  Patrick Rogers has 4 made cuts in the last 5 tournaments, and finished 2nd here last year. 

  • 09: Wesley Bryan ov Andrew Landry
  • Wesley Bryan has been very solid recently.  Five made cuts in a row, and as mentioned on the podcast he’s played here twice and finished 8th and 3rd.  Landry was good in his last tournament, but has been pretty awful other than that since his win.  Landry played here a couple years ago and finished 8th, but I like the all of a sudden consistent Wesley Bryan.

  • 09: Steve Stricker ov Chesson Hadley
  • This is Steve Stricker’s favorite event.  At one point he won it 3 years in a row.  Made the cut here 12 times in a row, and finished 5th here last year, and has been great on the PGA tour this year.  Worse finish on PGA tour this year is 32nd, and he doesn’t miss cuts.  Chesson Hadley was great at the beginning of the year, but has fallen off.  2 missed cuts in the last 3 events, and 2 missed cuts in the last 3 times he’s played here.

  • 03: Anirban Lahiri ov Austin Cook
  • Austin Cook has not ben good recently, where it looks like Lahiri is making a nice little run with good finishes.  Lahiri has finished ahead of Cook in the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, and Cook has missed the cut in 3 out of the last 4 tournaments where Lahiri has made the cut in 5 straight and is coming off of a 9th at the Travelers and 13th at the Quicken Loans.

  • 03: Ryan Armour ov Kevin Chappell
  • Something is not right with Kevin Chappell, we’ve talked about it before.  He’s normally a solid player, but he’s off now, and has been off since the Match play.  In 7 tournaments since then, he’s missed the cut in 5 of those tournaments, and only finished 30th and 65th in the tournaments he made the cut.  Not sure if it’s an injury or what, but he’s been terrible.  Armor has made the cut in 5 straight tournaments, finished 2nd at the Quicken Loans, so he’s been good recently.

- June

  • 26: Rafa Cabrera Bello ov Sergio Garcia
  • We just keep cashing bets against Sergio.  Barely won last week by 1 shot against Andy Sullivan, but that tournament Sergio had great course history at.  But Sergio has never played here.  12th last week, but still lost the head to head, and before that 6 missed cuts and a 70th.  Cabrera Bello the last 2 times he’s played here he finished 4th, 5th, and his last 4 tournaments he’s been good.  36th at the US Open, 4th, 8th, and 17th the 3 weeks before that.

  • 26: Andy Sullivan ov Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • Both guys have been good, but I really like how Sullivan is playing right now.4 top 10 finishes in his last 5 tournaments, Fitzpatrick has 1 top 10 since January.  But here’s the big thing.  I went back and looked at the last 3 years of Matthew Fitzpatrick.  The last 3 years his finishes coming into this tournament are pretty similar.  But he’s missed the cut at this tournament the last 3 years.  He just doesn’t play good here.  Sullivan’s last 3 times playing here 13th, 6th, and 5th.

  • 26: Rory Sabbatini ov Trey Mullinax
  • I’ve been betting on Rory Sabbatini a lot this year, I’ll keep doing this week against Trey Mullinax.  Sabbatini missed the cut last week, it was his first missed cut of the year.  I’m not worried.  Rory has finished ahead of Mullinax in 4 out of the last 5 tournaments they’ve played in together, and since the Zurich Open, Mullinax has one finish inside the top 58, including 4 missed cuts.

  • 26: Richie Werenski ov Andrew Landry
  • It sounds like a broken record, but here we go again betting against Andrew Landry.  Since his win at the Valero Open, Landry hasn’t finished better than 65th, and keeps losing in head to heads.  This week he’s against Richie Werenski, who hasn’t been fantastic, but he’s been making cuts, and in the 3 tournaments they’ve played in together since Landry’s win, Werenski has finished ahead of Landry in every tournament, including a 16 shot difference last week at the Travelers.

  • 26: Peter Malnati ov Aaron Baddeley
  • Baddeley made the cut at the US Open barely, but he was in the easy tee times with the weather.  Other than that 6 missed cuts in the last 7 tournaments for him.  Peter Malnati no missed cuts in the last 6 tournaments, and in the last 4 tournaments they’ve played in together, Malnati has beat Baddeley head to head by a combined 25 shots.

  • 19: Patrick Reed ov Jordan Spieth
  • Give me the better golfer right now, and that’s Patrick Reed.  We’ve been saying for a while, there’s something wrong with Spieth, and look at his last 5 finishes.  41st, 21st, 32nd, missed cut, missed cut.  Meanwhile in head to head matchups this year Patrick Reed is 5-2 against Spieth!!!  So Reed has been better the whole year than Spieth, and Spieth is in the middle of a bad stretch…I love this bet.

  • 19: Rorry Sabbatini ov Ollie Schneiderjans
  • We’ve made some good money this year betting on Sabbatini, hoping to continue this week.  Sabbati straight up against Schneiderjans is 6-0 the last 6 times they’ve played in the same tournament.  Scheiderjans has finished ahead of Rory Sabbatini 2 times…back in January and the first week of February.  Sabbatini has also not missed any cuts this year on tour, and his last 5 finishes 4 are top 30, 2 are top 20, so he’s been not only making cuts but doing well.  Ollie Shenanigans hasn’t been great recently.  Two top 30 finishes in 2018…again back in January and the first week ov February.  Ollie has never played here.

  • 19: Vaughn Taylor ov Ryan Palmer
  • Palmer started off the year strong.  in January finishing 20th and 2nd.  But then it all fell apart.  7 missed cuts out of the last 11 tournaments., no top 20 finishes.  Vaughn Taylor has been surprisingly good.  Three missed cuts out of 13 tournaments played.  And Head to head against Ryan Palmer, Taylor is 5-2 this year including 3 wins the last 3 tournaments.  No advantage course history wise between these two.

  • 19: Brooks Koepka ov Rory McIlroy
  • I’m not worried about Koepka falling off after winning the US Open.  We went over stats before about big name guys coming off of a win.  They’re pretty strong coming off wins, and the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Koepka has beat him twice, and a tie.  In in the two wins, McIlroy missed the cut.  Rory has only played here once, finished 17th, Koepka played here in 2016 and finished 9th.  Rory was really bad last week, I don’t see one week making him better than Koepka.

  • 19: European Tour: Andy Sullivan ov Sergio Garcia
  • Sergio has good course history here…I don’t care.  Since his baby, he’s missed 5 cuts and his best finish is 70th.  He was terrible again last week at the US Open.  Andy Sullivan has been really good recently.  5th, 35th, 3rd, 7th, 21st.  And the craziest part is Andy Sullivan is +120.

  • 19: Jhonnathan Vegas ov Andrew Landry
  • You keep giving me matchups involving random winners who suck after they win…I’ll keep taking them.  Here’s Landry’s finishes since his win (broken record) MC, WD, 67, MC, 65.  Awful.  And Landry has played here once, and missed the cut.  Jhonnathan Vegas has made 5 cuts in a row, and 9 out of his last 10 including 41st last week at the US Open.  Bot great course history, but he’s made 3 out of 5 cuts here.

  • 13: Couple more parlays
  • Me and Sacker looking at the weather...the afternoon guys tomorrow got hosed.  They get high winds tomorrow afternoon and friday morning.  The thursday morning guys get low winds tomorrow morning and friday afternoon.

    So we made some parlays to fade afternoon guys tomorrow.

    To Miss the cut

    Snedeker, Tiger, Cameron Smith, Tyrell Hatton

    To Miss the cut

    Snedeker, Sergio, Dufner, Cameron Smith

  • 13: Andrew "Beef" Johnston ov Kevin Chappell 1st round
  • 13: To MAKE the cut parlay
  • Dustin, Rory, Rose, Rahm, Tiger, Koepka, Stenson, Mickelson, Grace, Fleetwood, Casey, Noren, Jimmy Walker


    $140 to win $3028

  • 13: To MISS the cut parlay
  • Aaron Wise, Tyrell Hatton, Luke List, Brian Harman, Cameron Smith

    $140 to make $8,800

  • 13: To MISS the cut parlay
  • Cameron Smith, Aaron Wise

    $100 to win $440

  • 13: To MAKE the cut parlay
  • Dustin, Justin Rose, Mickelson, Grace

    $100 to win $116

  • 13: Phil Mickelson to finish under 20.5 position
  • $200 to win $340

  • 13: Winning hole score under 274.5
  • 80 to win $108

  • 13: Winning hole score under 275.5
  • $200 to win $200

  • 12: Henrik Stenson ov Jordan Spieth
  • Spieth has not been elite over the last couple months, and it’s all because of putting.  His last 4 finishes are 41st, 21st, 32nd, and missed cut.  Jack Nicklaus talked about it at The Memorial.  GIVE THE QUOTE.  Stenson meanwhile has been steady and consistent, 26th, 13th, 23rd, 5th, 6th…he’s comfortable with his game, and he’s comfortable with his putting now.

  • 12: Patrick Reed ov Sergio Garcia
  • Here we go with the baby theory.  Since Sergio Garcia had his first baby here are his finishes in tournament play.  MC, MC, MC, 70th, MC.  Patrick Reed now has his contacts in, and he’s been really good.  He won the Masters, hasn’t missed the cut since then, and has finished 29th, 40th, and 8th since then.  And Reed has decent history at US Opens, he finished 13th last year…and that was without contacts!!! 

  • 12: Charles Howell III ov Kevin Chappell
  • Giving credit to @josephwatson23.  Last week he noticed a friday matchup against Kevin Chappell who’s been struggling, and I noticed it too…we made some money off of him.  Somethings wrong with Kevin Chappell.  He’s normally a pretty good golfer, and he’s got good course history at a lot of tournaments, but listen to these stats.  Before the Masters, he finished 7th, 30th, 20th, 8th, 31st, 6th, 21st.  Now start at the Masters.  MC, Mc, 30th, Mc, Mc, Mc.  Since the Masters, 6 tournaments and one round under 70.  He’s been bad.  We went over Charles Howell last week and how sneaky good he’s been…no missed cuts, his last finishes are 26th, 65th, 9th, 17th, 21st, 55h, 18th, 9th.  And he’s only 6700 in draftkings.

  • 12: Shane Lowry ov Aaron Wise
  • This one feels like a gift.  We love betting against random guys who win tournaments, and we’ve won betting against Aaron Wise recently, and we’re gonna do it again this week.  Since his win he’s missed the cut two times in a row and in his win at the Byron Nelson he’s worse round was 68, since then he doesn’t have a round under 70.  Meanwhile, Shane Lowry has been decent over the last few months.  No missed cuts, he even has a couple of top 15 finishes.  Look.  This is a big boy tournament.  Shane Lowry has finished 46th, 9th, and 2nd in the last 3 US Opens.  Aaron Wise has played in one US Open, that was in 2016.  He missed the cut and shot +10.

  • 12: Ian Poulter ov Luke List
  • You want to talk big boy tournaments, and betting on the Adults?  Give me Ian freaking Poulter on the big stage.  Ian Poulter earlier this year had to win a tournament to make it into the Masters…what’d he do?  Won the tournament.  We talk about betting against random guys who win tournaments, but Poulter isn’t a random guy.  Since his win, no missed cuts, he turned around on a short week after his win and made the cut at the masters, and since then he’s played in 4 tournaments, and finished in the top 20 every single time.  Luke List has a couple random good finishes, but his last 2 tournaments 37th, and 56th, and here’s the other big thing for me in this matchup.  The US Open is a different course every year, but Poulter hasn’t missed the cut since 2011 at the US Open…Luke List has played in 3 US Opens.  He’s never made the cut.

  • 12: Jimmy Walker ov Kyle Stanley
  • I don’t need to go into a ton of detail here, Jimmy Walker is back from Lyme disease he looks healthy and his last few finishes show that.  20th, 6th, 2nd, 4th.  Kyle Stanley is all over the board, he’s super inconsistent 2nd, missed cut, 13th, 52nd.  Give me the guy in the middle of a hot streak over an inconsistent Kyle Stanley

  • 12: Kiradech Aphibarnrat ov Cameron Smith
  • We mentioned the other week about how bad Cameron Smith has been since the Zurich, and we weren’t kidding.  Before the Zurich, he finished 32nd and the RBC Heritage, 5th at the masters and 5th at the match play.  But his second round at the Zurich he and his partner shot 76.  Since that round he’s played in 3 tournaments, hasn’t made the cut in any tournament and here are his round scores.  76, 75, 79, 74, 75, 72.  Barn Rat missed the cut last week, but before that no missed cuts in several months he even has a few top 5 finishes and a 13th in there.  This is just a big fade of Cameron Smith who still looks like a 13 year old going through puberty…so again.  Give me the adult.

  • 05: Phil Mickelson ov Tony Finau
  • Love getting Mickelson in this matchup.  On a course where putting and scrambling are super important, I can get Phil who’s finished 9th, 2nd, and 3rd, 11th, and 2nd here the last 3 years here.  Tony Finau has never played this tournament, and on a course where scrambling is important, Finau is only 81st in scrambling, meanwhile Phil is ranked 33rd, and this is the tournament where Phil wants to fine tune his game for next week.  This isn’t a tournament where Phil doesn’t care, and misses the cut on purpose so he can get to Shinnecock.  He plays this tournament every year right before the US Open, so this is familiar territory for him.  I look for Phil to be near the top all week wanting to go into next week with Momentum on a course he’s familiar with compared to Finau who’s never played here.

  • 05: Billy Horschel ov Byeong Hun An
  • Again, I get a guy who knows this course well, and loves it, has great history going against a guy who’s never played here.  Billy Horschel has finished 4th, 8th, 6th, and 10th the last 4 times he’s played here, and I know we made money betting on Byeong Hun An last week, but he’s never played here, and course history is important here.  Horschel missed the cut last week, but before that 21st, 37th, 11th, and 5th.  Horschel is up and down, but when he gets a course he likes, he really takes advantage, and this is tournament he loves.

  • 05: Joel Dahmen ov Scott Piercy
  • Won a bet with Joel Damen a few weeks ago, hoping to do the same this week.  Listen to Dahmens last few finishes.  20th, 16th, 16th.  Listen to Piercy’s last few finishes.  32nd, MC, MC.    Dahmen has played here one time that was last year, and he finished 18th.  Piercy has played here twice and missed the cut both times.

  • 02: Stenson or Day ov Matsuyama Round 3
  • 02: Bubba ov Keegan Round 3

- May

  • 30: Justin Rose ov Tiger Woods 1st Round
  • Looking into this bet further, I really like it, and I see it at only -125 at 5Dimes.  Justin Rose has been solid in first rounds.  Only 2 first rounds over 70 in 2018, and in 4 out of his last 5 tournaments he's shot 69,68,68,66 in the first round.  Tiger has 1 round under 70 all year.  His last 3 tournaments he's shot 73, 71, 72 in the first rounds.

  • 29: Rory McIlroy ov Jordan Spieth
  • Since the Masters, Spieth’s favorite tournament, he’s had the putting woes, and he hasn’t been great.  No top 20s since the Masters, 41st, 21st and 32nd, and I’m watching him play, and he’s struggling.  His putting has been his achilles heel, and I need to see it fixed before I believe it.  Rory has been up and down this year, but he had a 16th at the Wells Fargo, and a 5th at The Masters, and I actually like what happened to him last week.  He was in a position to win, didn’t, and expressed frustration after not closing.  I think he’s really motivated this week, I think he’s going to push extra hard for a win, so I’ll take the very motivated Mcilroy ov the struggling Spieth.

  • 29: Byeong Hun An ov Aaron Wise
  • We said last week Aaron Wise would struggle after his first win, and he did.  He missed the cut.  So I’m fading him again this week.  Hun An has been sneaky good.  Hasn’t missed the cut in his last 6 tournaments, and even has 3 top 15’s in that span.  He also likes this tournament…he’s played here twice, finished 25th, and 11th both times.  

  • 29: Charley Hoffman ov Gary Woodland
  • I know we made fun of Hoffman earlier, and he hasn’t been fantastic with only 2 top 15 finishes in 2018, but he’s been waaaay better than Gary Woodland.  Since his win, he’s played in 7 tournaments, and missed the cut in 5 of them, and finished 49th, and 50th in the other two.  He’s got 4 straight missed cuts, and hasn’t finished under par in 6 straight tournaments.    Hoffman at least makes the cut.  And in typical Charley Hoffman fashion, he’s decent not great at this tournament…makes the cut, but doesn’t do much with it.

  • 29: Chris Kirk ov Cameron Smith
  • Cameron Smith was having a really impressive year..and then the Zurich Classic happened.  Not sure if there’s an injury or what, but he missed the cut at the Zurich, then shot +7 and +13 at The Players and The Fort Worth Invitational.  So the last two tournaments, he’s been awful.  Kirk has been shockingly good this year, hasn’t missed the cut since the Houston Open the first week of April, and even finished 11th at the Fort Worth, and 8th at the Valero.  Kirk has missed the cut here the last 2 years, that’s my only concern with this play, but Cameron Smith has played here twice and has a missed cut and a 65th.

  • 29: Anirban Lahiri ov Andrew Landry
  • I really hate betting on Lahiri cause he’s so inconsistent, but he finished 2nd here last year, and has made the cut the last two tournaments.  Landry since his win has been terrible.  A 67th, a WD, and a missed cut.  He’s proving our point about random winners doing bad after their win, so I’m hoping to take advantage, and I’ll have my fingers crossed that we get good Lahiri this week, and not miss the cut by 10 shots Lahiri.

  • 22: Adam Hadwin ov Brian Harman
  • Both these guys have good tournament history here, so I’m looking at how they’ve been playing this year, and I see guys going in opposite directions.  Harman started off the year real strong, but in his last 5 tournaments he’s been bad.  54th, 44th, 23rd, 74th, Missed cuts.  I’ve been betting on Hadwin a lot this year, and for good reason.  He had a bad finish at the players but before that 5 straight 25 finishes.  Hadwin continues to be underrated, and I love him in this matchup.

  • 22: Jason Dufner ov Aaron Wise
  • The speed round topic on the podcast was basically my reasoning for this play.  Theres not a good track record of these random guys winning tournaments and then playing good after that.  So give me Jason Dufner who finished 5th last week, and has 3 top 6 finishes at this tournament in the last 6 years.  This is a fade of a guy who finished 2nd at the Wells Fargo, 1st at the Byron Nelson and before that had 1 top 15 finish in 2018 and in 2018 5 missed cuts.

  • 22: Rory Sabatini ov Ollie Scheinderjans
  • Rory Sabbatini is a golfer that has obviously done something to his game, and it’s paying big dividends.  Top 30 finishes in his last 4 tournaments, no missed cuts in 2018.  Ollie is making cuts, but he’s not doing much with them.  Nothing better than 34th in his last 8 tournaments.  Last 5 tournaments they’ve played in together, Rory has finished ahead of him by an average of 5 strokes.

  • 22: Nick Watney ov Si Woo Kim
  • Take out the tournament of champions (which I still can’t believe Si Woo Kim played in) which only has 20 people playing in it, and Si woo only has 2 finishes inside the top 35.  He has these random tournaments that he plays incredible at, but they are few and far between.  Si Woo has played here twice, missed the cut both times.  I’l take the new and improved Nick Watney, who hasn’t missed a cut all year long, and has just been super consistent.  6 straight tournaments 37th or better including a 2nd at the Wells Fargo.  We just need to avoid the random Si Woo amazing tournament.

  • 22: Austin Cook ov Bill Haas
  • Austin Cook has 4 straight made cuts, and his only missed cut in the last 8 tournaments was at the Masters.  He’s been solid this year, and Bill Haas is a mess right now.  3 straight missed cuts and MDF at the Valero.  He’s played in 11 tournaments this year, and he’s only played on Sunday 4 times.

  • 15: Jimmy Walker ov Hideki Matsuyama
  • Jimmy Walker has finished 2nd and 4th in his last 2 events minus the Zurich.  It looks like he may finally be over his lyme disease.  No missed cuts since mid-February, and he’s consistency finished better and better.  28th at the Valspar, 20th at the Masters, 4th at the Valero, 2nd at the Players.  When he’s on, Jimmy Walker is a really good golfer, and it looks like he’s back to form.  Since his wrist injury at the Waste Management, matsuyama has one top 20 finish and that was 19th at the Masters.  His last 2 tournaments, he hasn’t made it to Sunday with a missed cut at the players, and an MDF at the Wells Fargo.  Not sure if his wrist is still bothering him, but he has lost his form, and he’s fade material right now.

  • 15: Matt Kuchar ov Sergio Garcia
  • I don’t care that I lost a bet to Sergio last week, the fact is he was terrible.  Since having his baby he has 3 missed cuts and a 70th.  I’m still fading Sergio, and this week I get to do it with Matt Kuchar.  Kuchar hasn’t missed the cut since 1984 it feels like, and has played solid and consistent.  17th last week, and if go back to British Open, a links style course, Kuchar finished 2nd so he’s comfortable on this style of course.  It’s not a great comparison from a British Open course to a landfill course in Texas, but it just shows that Kuchar isn’t going to be intimidated.

  • 15: Rory Sabbatini ov Joaquin Niemann
  • This week I’m happy to support Rory!!!  Sabbatini that is.  Sabbatini hasn’t missed a cut in 2018.  That’s 11 in a row!!!  That includes a 5th, 17th, and 20th in that time.  In fact, 6 of those tournaments were top 30 finishes, so he’s been shockingly good.  Nieman has played in 3 PGA tournaments this year.  He missed the cut in 2 of them including the Wells Fargo, where Sabbatini finished 5 shots ahead of Riemann.

  • 15: Joel Dahmen ov JJ Spaun
  • JJ Spaun has made one cut in the last 7 tournaments.  Joel Dahmen has made the cut in 6 straight.  That is all.

  • 15: Aaron Baddeley ov Daniel Summerhays
  • Summerhays has played in 8 PGa tournaments this year.  Best finish 55th, and he has 4 missed cuts.  He had an 8th place finish last week though…at the vaunted Knoxville Open on the Web.com tour.  He finished just ahead of Ben Kohles…and (DROP)  Henrik Norlander.  He just barely couldn’t beat out Wex Roach, and Matt Harmon.  Aaron Badly has one missed cut since late January.  In Baddeley’s last 7 tournaments, he’s finished the same or better than Summerhay’s best finish this year 6 times.

  • 08: Phil Mickelson ov Sergio Garcia
  • We went over this before.  Since having his baby, in stroke play tournaments Sergio hasn’t made the cut once.  Now he’s matched up against Phil who is playing great with only one finish outside the top 25 since January.  He’s coming off a 5th place finish last week, he won in Mexico, he’s said he’s gearing up for the US Open, and even though he hasn’t played great here, I’m loving what I’m seeing from Phil this year, and not loving what I’m seeing from Sergio right now.

  • 08: Adam Hadwin ov Adam Scott
  • I get a guy who’s finished who hasn’t finished outside of the top 25 since February over a guy who’s best finish in the last 4 tournaments is 32nd?  I’ll take it.  Adam Scott isn’t an elite golfer now.  He just isn’t.  I don’t know if it’s because of his kids, or his new focus is on fashion, but he isn’t competing for wins anymore.  He’s competing to make the cut.  His putting has been terrible.  He’s 210th in putts per round., and 127th in driving accuracy.  Hadwin is 54th in driving accuracy, and has been one of the most underrated golfers recently.  Incredible value on this bet, and last week Hadwin won his matchup over Hatton by 4 shots, and that was with Hatton having an incredibly lucky first round.  Hadwin is the real deal.

  • 08: Louis Oosthuizen ov Branden Grace
  • Guess who’s playing in his first tournament since having a baby… Branden Grace.  Louis is tough to figure out.  Missed the cut at the Wells Fargo, 12th at the Masters, did good in match play, 16th at the Valspar, missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer.  But here’s what I notice from Louis.  He seems to like playing in stacked fields.  Check out these stats.  This year at the Masters 12th, tied for 9th at the match play, 30th in Mexico at the WGC.  Last year 41st at the Masters, 2nd at the Players, 23rd US Open, 10th at the Northen Trust, 30th at the Dell Championship.  2016 15th at the Masters, 28th at the Players, 23rd US Open.  When the field is stacked, he steps up his game.  I’ll take him this week over a baby-fatigued Branden Grace.

  • 08: Bubba Watson ov Brooks Koepka
  • Koepka doesn’t look like he’s in great form yet coming back from injury.  He didn’t have one round under 70 last week, he looked rusty, now he’s playing a really tough course.  Bubba since making the ball change has been great, even had 2 wins at the genesis, and the match play.  Bubba missed the cut here last year, but that was with the old golf ball brand he was using so don’t be scared of that finish.  I get the rejuvenated Bubba over a still rusty Koepka…love this one.

  • 01: Paul Casey ov Tiger Woods
  • In the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Paul Casey has finished ahead of Tiger Woods, and while Tiger gets all the press, his great finishes were at the Vaspar, and the Arnold Palmer.  In a loaded field at the Masters, a tough course, he lost head to head matchups to most of the main guys.  So I think Tiger is not going to play great compared to the other big names in the tournament at a tough course, which is long.  Tiger has played good here in the past, but this course is different than when he played good here, it’s longer, tougher, and I’m of the opinion that at tough courses, he’s going to struggle against the elite golfers of the world.

  • 01: Adam Hadwin ov Tyrell Hatton
  • Hadwin continues to be the most underrated golfer on tour.  His worse finish in the last 5 tournaments is 24th.  Meanwhile, Tyrell Hatton in the United Stats this year has a best finish of 44th.  Hatton hasn’t played here, but the fact is Hadwin is the better golfer right now, and it’s not close.  I don’t understand this matchup, but I’m happy to have it.

  • 01: Jaime Lovemark ov Jason Dufner
  • Dufner physically looks like he’s let himself go, and his game is starting to reflect it.  Dufner before the Zurich, in 6 tournaments had 3 missed cuts, a 64th, and a 55th.  One finish in the top 20 in that span, and just hasn’t been good.  Meanwhile, Lovemark has been coming on strong, in the last 7 tournaments he’s not missed the cut, he’s got 4 top 25 finishes in that span, and Dufner hasn’t played here in 8 years, he’s played here 4 times, and missed the cut 3 of those times.

  • 01: Nick Watney ov Peter Uihlein
  • I bet against Peter Uihlein in the past, and it bit me, but I still stand by my opinion that Peter Uihein isn’t great.  He’s missed the cut in 3 straight tournaments, 4 missed cuts in the last 7 tournaments including a 66th.  Nick Watney has finished ahead of Uihlein in the last 4 tournaments they played in, and Uihlein has never played this tournament.  Watney has a pretty long history here, and while he hasn’t played good at this course recently, this year Watney is a better golfer than he’s been in the last few years.  And when Watney was good earlier in his career, he was good here.  A couple of top 10 finishes, and 7 top 25 finishes here are on his resume.  Watney hasn’t missed the cut at al in 2018, and hasn’t finished worse than 32nd in the last 4 tournaments.  I’ll take the resurgent Nick Watney in this matchup all day long.

- April

  • 27: Watson/Kuchar ov Reavie/Glover
  • 27: Thomas/Cauley ov Garcia/Bello
  • 17: Kevin Streelman ov Russell Knox
  • Streelman has finished ahead of Knox in the last 6 tournaments they’ve played in in 2018, and Streelman has never missed the cut at this tournament.  Knox hasn’t played here in 2 years, the last time he did play here he missed the cut, and he hasn’t finished better than 26th here.  Knox just has not been having a good year his only good finish was a 15th at the Pro Am, and a 16th at the Valspar.  Nothing inside the top 40 in the last 3 weeks and only has one round under 70 in his last 11 rounds.  Streelman no missed cuts in 2018, and only has one missed cut since May of 2017.

  • 17: Stewart Cink ov Sean O’Hair
  • Stewart Cink is steady this year, he’s only missed the cut at two tournaments and that was the weird Farmers Insurance Open and the Pro-Am.  Other than that he’s made the cut every time including 4 in a row.  Sean O’Hair has been all over the board, but mostly bad.  He did good at the Valspar and the Arnold Palmer, and other than that he’s got nothing inside the top 50.  O’Hair has played here 3 times, missed the cut the last 2 times he played here, 58th the other time.  Stewart Cink never missed the cut here including a 22nd last year.

  • 17: Charley Hoffman ov Matt Kuchar
  • I stared at this matchup for a while, and I wanted to make sure I wasn’t betting against Kuchar just because he made me lose a bet last week to Dustin Johnson, but the numbers point to Hoffman, and Hoffman is the underdog.  This will be Kuchar’s 5th tournament in a row…that’s a lot of golf, I gotta wonder if fatigue is going to set in.  But besides that in the last couple tournaments Hoffman has finished ahead or tied with Kuchar.  And Hoffman loves this tournament!  He’s played here 12 years in a row, and has 10 finishes inside the top 13 including a win in 2016.  Kuchar has only finished ahead of Hoffman at this tournament one time, and that was back in 2014.

  • 17: Abraham Ancer ov John Huh
  • Abraham Ancer is the underdog here, but he’s the golfer with the most momentum right now in this matchup.  In fact, Ancer finished 8th at the Houston Open, 13th at the Puntacana, and 16th at the Valspar.  John Huh played in the Houston Open, and the Valspar, but Ancer finished ahead of him.  Huh has played here 6 times, Ancer only once, but when they played together Ancer finished ahead of Huh.  I think Ancer is on a roll, and has good value as the underdog here.

  • 10: Matt Kuchar ov Dustin Johnson
  • Dustin Johnson was asked earlier this season what courses don’t suit his game…his answer?  Harbor Town.  Dustin hasn’t played here since 2009, he missed the cut both times…and one of his new sponsors this year is RBC and he is contractually obligated to play this tournament.  He’s coming off a fairly disappointing masters, I just don’t know what his motivation is.  I’m sure he’ll come out, make the cut, and do ok, but Matt Kuchar is used to playing this tournament, and is really good here.  11th, 9th, 5th, and a win in the last 4 years.  So he knows how to navigate the schedule of going from Augusta to South Carolina, and play this tournament.  I love that I get Kuchar at +175.

  • 10: Will McGirt ov Jim Furyk
  • Jim Furyk might have a couple of wins at this tournament, but that was way in the past.  This year is older Jim Furyk, and post wrist injury Jim Furyk.  The only tournament he’s done decent at this year was the Valspar.  He even missed the cut at the Puntacanna.  Furyk even missed the cut here last year.  McGirt has been all over the board in 2018, but he’s had a couple decent finishes at the Valspar, and the Honda, but McGirt really likes this course.  3 top 10 finishes in the last 4 years.

  • 10: Luke Donald ov Russell Knox
  • Just bet Luke Donald at this Tournament.  He’s plus money.  He loves it here.  It makes no sense

  • 10: Bud Cauley ov Brandt Snedeker
  • We all remember the infamous Brandt Snedeker bet ov Scott Brown.  We’ve won a couple bets against Snedeker since then…I’m going against him again this week.  His last 4 tournaments, he’s got 2 missed cuts and an 81st along with a 31st.  He’s been all over the place at the RBC, finished 11th last year, MC the year before, Meanwhile Bud Cauley was top 10 here last year, and has finished 14th and 18th in his last two tournaments so he’s coming in on some momentum.

  • 07: Satoshi Kodaira ov Fred Couples 3rd round
  • Watching Fred Couples make the cut this year, and watching all the young guys around him struggle was great.  But Couples made it through this round fighting a bad back, and he accomplished his goal this week.  He made the cut and showed everyone he's still got it.  But tomorrow is going to be brutal for him.  A stiff back, rain, and bad conditions...I think tomorrow is where his age and back catches up to him.  Kodaira has played pretty good so far, and while he doesn't have the experience, he has the health and the strength and the stamina for what will be a grueling third round.

  • 06: Tiger Woods round 3 score over 72.5
  • Tiger struggled today, and I don't see it getting any easier tomorrow.  Weather is coming in, 100% chance of rain, and that's going to take away length off the tee, and create even harder approach shots, the speed and break of the greens are going to change...it's going to be tough conditions.  I think lots of guys are going to struggle, but with Tiger being out of the hunt, I can see him putting a pretty high number on the board.

  • 03: Top 10 Plays
  • 03: Top 20 Plays
  • 03: Make The Cut Parlay #1 ($17,000 Guarantee)
  • 03: Make The Cut Parlay #2
  • 03: Make The Cut Parlay #3
  • 03: Make The Cut Parlay #4
  • 03: Bubba Watson ov Rickie Fowler
  • I don’t trust Rickie Fowler right now, and I have Bubba ranked very high this week.  Since Bubba switched golf balls, and went back to his favorite Titleist he’s been one of the top 3 golfers in the world.  A win at the Match play, a win at the Genesis, and a 9th in Mexico.  We wasn’t great at the Arnold Palmer, but I’m looking at ceiling here, and the fact is the only time he’s missed the cut here was when he was on the weird Volvik ball.  He’s won here before, he knows the course, and he’s in the best form I’ve seen him in, in a long time.  I just can’t believe in Rickie Fowler this year.  No top 10 finishes in 2018 except for the weird Tourney of Champions, he’s got 2 missed cuts in 2018, and he looked really bad last week.  He doesn’t scare me here, no top 10’s the last 3 years, he even missed the cut two years ago…give me Bubba ov Rickie Fowler.

  • 03: Phil Mickelson ov Jason Day
  • I’m all in on Phil this week.  He went on a run this season of a 5th, 2nd, 6th, and a win.  The last 2 weeks has been him tuning up for this tournament, and Phil has been incredible around the greens.  1st in putts per round, and in 2018 he still hasn’t missed a putt inside 3 feet.  2nd in sand saves, and 3rd in birdie average.  We all know Phil’s history around here, and in the last few years he’s been all over the place.  Couple of missed cuts, a 2nd, a 22nd…this year just feels different.  He looks different, and nothing would make him happier than to win this tournament with Tiger and all the young talent this year.  Whoever wins this thing in 2018 has a massive bragging right for the rest of their career, and Phil in particular would love it.  Jason Day started off great this year with a win and a 2nd, but then took a month off and finished 22nd, and 36th, and Jason Day’s history here at Augusta is overrated.  Last 4 years only one inside the top 20, no wins here…and Jason Day has a kid on the way.

  • 03: Hideki Matsuyama ov Henrik Stenson
  • Matsuyama is coming back off the wrist injury, but he’s got two tournaments under his belt, plus an extra week of rest, so I think he should be ready for this week.  Last three years here he’s finished 11, 5th, and 7th.  Henrik Stenson, for whatever reason, is not good at The Masters.  He’s played here the last 12 years, No top 10 finishes, and only 1 top 15.  Last year he missed the cut.  I can’t explain it, but he just isn’t good here, the course doesn’t set up well for him, I’m not sure.  But I’m happy to bet against Stenson this week.

  • 03: Paul Casey ov Jon Rahm
  • I think Jon Rahm is one of the most talented and fun golfers on tour…I don’t think he’s mature enough to compete and win a major yet.  He gets upset, and lets his emotions effect his next shot and you can’t do that at Augusta.  Rahm hasn’t been treat recently since his win at the CareerBuilder, in fact he has no top 10 finishes since then, and he got smoked at the match play.  We’ve gone over at nauseum about how match play isn’t tourney play, but to get steam rolled like that in your last tourney isn’t great.  He also was playing good here last year, but folded and ended up 27th.  Paul Case, meanwhile, just steady and steady.  Actually won a tournament this year, and has 5 finishes inside the top 17 in 6 tournaments so far, and my favorite part about this bet is Casey’s course history.  The last 3 tournaments here he’s finished 4th, 6th, and 4th.

  • 03: Adam Hadwin ov Gary Woodland
  • Gary Woodlands best finish since he won the Waste Management in March has been…49th.  He’s been bad.  He missed the cut last year with his family issues going on, meanwhile Hadwin has been sneaky sneaky good recently.  Here are his last 4 finishes in 2018.  17th, 12th, 6th, 6th, and he hasn’t missed the cut since the Northern Trust in August of 2017.  Hadwin finished 36th last year at the Masters, I think Hadwin is pretty underrated coming into this tournament.

  • 03: Satoshi Kodaira ov Ted Potter Jr.
  • Since Ted Potters win this year, he hasn’t made a cut.  He missed the cut in one tournament he’s played at the Masters…he sucks, he shouldn’t be here.  Not that Satoshi is a world beater, but he’s made the cut 3 out of the last 4 tournaments.  He hasn’t played here, that makes me nervous, but I just love betting against Ted Potter.

  • 03: Jonathan Vegas ov Danny Willet
  • Danny Willet since his masters has win has been a complete disaster.  Missed cuts all over the place, and the last time he tried to play a couple weeks ago he withdrew with a bad back.  Vegas hasn’t been fantastic, but has made 4 straight cuts coming into the Masters, and doesn’t have a bad back.

- March

  • 28: Russell Knox ov Brice Garnett
  • Easy there on Brice Garnett.  I know he won last week, that was at the Puntacanta.  Before that he was missing cuts at the Honda Classic, and the Genesis Open, and didn’t have a finish inside the top 30.  Sound familiar mediocre golfer randomly wins a tournament out of nowhere?  Ted Potter drop.  Russell Knox is not golfing great right now, but he’s better than Garnett.  Missed cut at the Waste Management by one, missed cut at the Honda, and then he also has 5 top 30 finishes, two of those top 15.  Last time Garnett played here he missed the cut.

  • 28: Rory Sabbatini ov Shane Lowry
  • Sabbatini has made 8 cuts in a row, hasn’t missed a cut in 2018.  In fact, he’s also got 3 top 20 finishes in 2018!!!  Can’t really look at his course history cause he hasn’t played here in over a decade.  Shane Lowry?  He’s missed some cuts in 2018…hasn’t missed a meal, but definitely has missed a cut.  No finishes in 2018 better than 43rd.  Three missed cuts this year, and Lowry has actually played this tournament twice…missed the cut both times.

  • 28: Harris English ov Ryan Palmer
  • Harris English on a nice little run, 22nd and 5th his last 2 tournaments.  Meanwhile Ryan Palmer has 2 missed cuts in his last 3 tournaments, and he has a pretty bad record in this tournament.  7 missed cuts here in 12 attempts.  Last year, he missed the cut, and the year before only finished 38th.  Harris English not fantastic here, but he’s never missed the cut here.

  • 28: Daniel Berger +150 ov Henrik Stenson
  • I think this is a great value play.  I don’t know what to expect from Stenson this week.  Last year he missed the cut here, he looked great the last time he played…maybe he just wants to play this week, hit a few shots, and head to Augusta.  Daniel Berger loves this place!!!  Two straight years he’s finished 5th here.  Only 1 missed cut this year for Berger, and he’s even got a couple top 15 finishe

  • 28: Steve Stricker ov Keegan Bradley
  • If Stricker wins he gets into the Masters.  Can you see Steve Stricker winning this week?  Yes  Can you see Keegan Bradley winning?  No.  Last PGA Tour event Stricker played in was the Valspar…he finished 12th.  Keegan Bradley has one top 25 finish this year.  A top 25 finish.  Keegan pretty decent course history here, that’s why this isn’t a big play for me…but I like Stricker this week.

  • 28: Scott Piercy ov James Hahn
  • Really like Piercy this week, and he seems to like this course.  No missed cuts in 6 tries here, and the last 2 times he played here he finished 10th and 19th.  He’s not coming in with a ton of momentum as he has 2 missed cuts in his last 5 tournaments, but he also has two top 20 finishes, so if he’s on a course he likes, he does well.  James Hahn is not great here.  Played here 4 times, 36th is his best finish.  The other 3 finishes, 56th, 49th, MC.  Hahn not great recently, 36th, and 59th his last 2 tournaments.

  • 24: Justin Thomas ov Kyle Stanley
  • Not sure what the juice is going to be, but I'm laying it -1/2.  Justin Thomas is making guys look foolish right now in match play.  He got a little extra rest when he wrapped up his round early, so I look for him to come out solid, and make quick work of Kyle Stanley.

  • 23: Patrick Reed ov Jordan Spieth
  • Here we go!!!  The match of the week, IMO.  I've been saying all week that Reed would win the group, and beat Spieth.  Today he can do both.  I love Reed when he's pissed off and super motivated in match play, and I actually think he's mentally stronger right now.  Spieth still is missing short putts here and there, and Reed has made it very clear he not only isn't scared of Spieth, he's ready to beat him straight up.  I can't believe Reed is an underdog in this matchup, but I'll take it. 

  • 23: Tyrell Hatton ov Charley Hoffman
  • I know it would be the most "Hoffman" thing ever for him to go 0-2 in the first 2 days and then win a meaningless match, but I love Hatton here.  I believe Hatton already has this group wrapped up based on records and him having already beaten Steele and Levy, but Hatton is going to want to keep the momentum going.  I don't know what book you're using, but I took the -1/2 on this bet.  Depending on if your book offers options on halving the matches, you're going to see a variety of numbers.

  • 23: Paul Casey ov Kyle Stanley
  • 23: Patrick Reed ov Charl Schwartzel
  • 23: Tyrell Hatton ov Alex Levy
  • 23: Patrick Reed ov Haotong Li
  • 23: Shubhankar Sharma ov Sergio Garcia
  • 20: Tyrell Hatton ov Alexander Levy
  • I like Hatton to come out of this group, and I think he’ll get off to a good start in his first round.  Hatton is 6-2 in match play, Levy is 2-7 in match play. 

  • 20: Patrick Reed ov HaoTong Li
  • Love the way Reed is playing, he’s in the same group as Jordan Spieth, and he may be the most motivated guy in the field.  HaoTong Li since his win on the European Tour hasn’t finished better than 53rd since then.

  • 20: Shubhankar Sharma ov Sergio Garcia
  • Sharma is +125 against Sergio.  Sergio just had a kid…why is he playing this week?

  • 14: Jason Day ov Tiger Wood
  • A golfer thats played twice this year, and finished 1st and 2nd, and won here in 2016 at plus money over Tiger?  I'll take it.  Day isn't intimidated by Tiger, and playing next to him isn't a big of a deal.  I worried about Day coming into this year, but he's proved me wrong in his two tournaments.  I know everyone and their mother is going to be on Tiger, and for good reason.  He had a great finish last week, and he loves this course, but I think his price is pretty overvalued this week, and getting Day at plus money is a great deal.

  • 14: Tommy Fleetwood ov Rory McIlroy
  • Rory has been all over the place this year, but in his last 4 tournaments he's got a 20th, a 59th, and two missed cuts including one last week where he couldn't putt to save his life.  He had a good showing here last year, but when putting struggles pop up, it's tough to ignore.  Fleetwood has been more than solid in his PGA events this year.  Only one finish outside the top 15, he has been steady, finished 10th here last year, but more importantly isn't going through some putting funk.  I look for Fleetwood to be near the top on Sunday.

  • 14: Bubba Watson ov Henrik Stenson
  • Since the ball change, Bubba has looked rejuvenated.  A win and a 9th since he made the change.  Didn't seem like a big deal at the time, but the results show other wise.  Meanwhile, Stenson continues to underperform with a 60th place finish 6 weeks ago, then he took a break and came back only to miss the cut this last weekend.  He has a history of good finishes here, but he did miss the cut here last year.  I look for Bubba to continue the momentum.

  • 14: David Lingmerth ov Danny Willet
  • The biggest compliment I can give David Lingmerth right now is that he's not Danny Willet.  Danny Willet has one made cut this year and that was at a watered down Euro tournament.  Besides that he's been a complete disaster.  Lingmerth has a couple missed cuts mixed in with some finishes outside the top 40 this year, but he's never missed the cut at this tournament in 5 attempts, and even finished 13th here a couple years ago.

  • 08: Jordan Spieth ov Rory McIlroy
  • Spieth hasn’t been fantastic, but he hasn’t been terrible.  Top 20 finishes in his last 3 tournaments, and he likes this course.  18th, 1st, 20th, 7th in the 4 times he’s played this course.  Rory on the other hand hasn’t played this tournament ever, and I think he’s playing because he needs to try and get his game on track for the Masters, but he hasn’t been great recently.  59th, 20th, Missed cut the last 3 tournaments he’s played in.  This play has a lot of juice, but I’m not scared.

  • 08: Paul Casey ov Justin Rose
  • We said last week that his 49th place finish was the outlier, and we were right.  He battled back and finished 12th, and that was way better than Justin Rose.  Not sure what’s going on with Rose, but he hasn’t played in a while, and last week looked very rusty.  Neither of these guys have played here in the last couple years, so I’m not too concerned with course history.  The only 2 tournaments these guys have played in together Casey has finished ahead of Rose by quite a bit.

  • 08: Adam Hadwin ov Tiger Woods
  • Guess who won this tournament last year and has finished 6th, and 9th in his last 2 tournaments, and hasn’t missed the cut in 2018?  Spoiler…it’s not Tiger Woods.  It’s Adam Hadwin who has to be one of the most underrated guys on tour right now.  Tiger hasn’t played this tournament…ever.  Look I get the Tiger hype, he looked great last tournament, but that was a course he loved and knew well.  Hadwin is playing better than Tiger, knows this course better than Tiger…I’ll take the better golfer right now over the big name.  Don’t fall into the Tiger trap.

  • 08: Steve Stricker ov Patrick Reed
  • Last week I said I was sick of not making money betting against Patrick Reed, we made money last week…I’m going to do it again, this time with Steve Stricker who’s coming off a win on the Champions Tour.  Last week was a no cut tournament, and it’s a good thing it was for Patrick Reed.  If it was a cut tournament, he would’ve missed the cut last week and that would’ve made 3 missed cuts in a row for him.  It’s tough to handicap Steve Stricker, but he’s played in 2 tournaments on tour this year and finished 31st and 26th.  He missed the cut here last year, but finished 7th the year before, and has played here many times including 3 top 10s in a row before the missed cut last year.  Patrick Reed has played here 4 times, and not surprisingly, has inconsistent finishes with a 2nd, 7th, 38th and a missed cut.  

  • 08: Nick Watney ov JB Holmes
  • Never thought I’d be betting on Nick Watney this year, but darn it!!!  Numbers don’t lie.  Since JB Holmes random 4th place finish he’s missed the cut twice, finished 60th and 49th.  Crazy crazy stat.  Nick Watney hasn’t missed the cut in 2018.  In fact, he’s finished ahead of JB Holmes in the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in, and believe it or not…Watney finished 14th here last year!!!  In fact…Nick Watney has never missed the cut here…ever, and has 5 top 25 finishes in the last 10 times he’s played here.

  • 08: Ollie Shenanigans ov Bill Haas
  • Here we go again betting against guys who have been in a recent tragedy.  Ollie isn’t great…but Bill Haas was in a big car crash a couple weeks ago and the guy in the car next to him died.  I’m not going to go over golf stats in this one.

- February

  • 28: Phil Mickelson ov Justin Rose
  • 7th here last year.  Is Phil good around the greens?  Let’s take a look.  1st in putting on tour in 2018, 2nd in birdie conversion, and he hasn’t missed a putt inside 3 feet all year.  His driving is ok, not great, but his driving has never been great.  He switched drivers, we made fun of him, but it appears it’s been working.  I don’t have anything bad to say about Justin Rose, but he hasn’t played in a month, and finished 38th here last year.  This is a play supporting Phil Mickelson and believing that he is in a elite groove right now.

  • 28: Paul Casey ov Sergio Garcia
  • I’m not worried about Paul Casey’s 49th place finish at the Genesis Open.  It’s the outlier performance.  That finish is his worst finish since the Sony Open in 2017!!!  He’s a top 15 machine…in fact in the last 13 tournaments he’s played in he’s finished top 15 10 of those times.  We’ve talked about it before, but Sergio has a kid on the way, his life is changing, and he’s only played twice this year,  32nd in Dubai, and 33rd at the Honda.  Not very impressive.  Give me Paul Casey this week.

  • 28: Pat Perez ov Patrick Reed
  • I’m sick of not making money betting against Patrick Reed…that stops this week.  Patrick Reed is a bit of a mystery.  23rd at the Farmers, and 17th at the Waste Management, but he’s also missed the cut at the Career builder, and he’s missed the cut his last 2 tournaments.  Last year he finished 61st here, which is terrible.  There’s only 65 guys that play in the tournament.  Perez hasn’t been spectacular, but he hasn’t missed a cut this year, and finished 24 spots ahead of Reed here last year.

  • 28: Brendan Steele ov Kevin Kisner
  • Cashed a bet going against Kisner last week, I’ll keep betting against him.  Something’s not right with him.  50th at the career builder, missed cut at Pebble Beach, and missed cut at the Honda last week.  He’s 10 over in his last 2 tournaments, and doesn’t have a round under 70 in his last 6 rounds.  Maybe he’s dealing with an injury we don’t know about, his swing is off..something isn’t right with him.  Brendan Steele consistent as every, no missed cuts in 2018, mostly solid finishes including a 3rd at the Waste Management.  Love the consistent Brendan Steele over 4 rounds compared to Kevin Kisner who’s in a slump.

  • 20: Jason Dufner ov Kevin Kisner
  • Kevin Kisner looks like he’s on a downswing.  He’s gotten worse the last 4 tournaments he’s played in.  17th, 25th, 50th, and a missed cut.  He’s played this tournament 3 times, and his best finish is 48th.  Jason Dufner has been solid in 2018, and he’s finished ahead of Kisner in the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together in 2018, and the last three years here at this tournament Jason Dufner has finished ahead of Kevin Kisner by an average of 26 positions.

  • 20: Rickie Fowler ov Rory McIlroy
  • Not sure what the deal is with Rory McIlroy, but his last 2 tournaments he’s been not good, and it looks like his putting is off.  A missed cut and he kind of backed his way into a 20th place finish the last 2 tournaments, and he’s missed the cut the last 2 times he’s played here.  This is the time of year where Rickie Fowler comes on strong.  He won this tournament last year and ripped off 4 straight top 16 finishes, in 2016 he finished 16th here and got on a roll.

  • 20: Ryan Palmer ov Tiger Woods
  • Tiger was bad last week, and at a tough course, I don’t see him getting any better.  His driving accuracy is 35%.  This course this week has tough rough, bunkers, water, etc.  He’s below the tour average in greens in regulation, I don’t see him having success.  Ryan Palmer has been a bit up and down, he’s got a missed cut a 2nd, a 20th, and a 58th this season, but he’s made the cut 6 times in a row at this tournament including a 2nd, 25th, and 26th recently. 

  • 20: Harris English of Ted Potter Jr
  • Surprise Surprise the win by Ted Potter at the Farmers Open was the outlier performance by him this year.  He missed the cut last week and shot +6, and besides the win he’s bot a 73rd and 3 missed cuts.  They’ve played in 4 tournaments together in 2018…Harris English has finished ahead of Potter in all of them.  Potter hasn’t played here in 3 years.  Nothing spectacular from him, nothing spectacular from Harris English either here at this tournament, I just think Potter is fade material after his win. 

  • 20: Luke List ov JB Holmes
  • I swore I would never bet against JB Holmes again.  Last time I did bet against him he finished 4th, but here we go.  Since then he’s missed 2 cuts, and finished 60th.    He hasn’t played here in 3 years, before that he missed the cut twice and finished 56th.  Luke List has meanwhile been sneaky sneaky good recently.  He missed the cut twice to start 2018, but since then he’s finished 12th, 26th, and 26th, and the last 2 years here he’s made the cut and even has a 10th place finish in 2016.

  • 14: Phil Mickelson ov Justin Thomas
  • We make fun of Phil a lot, but I can’t ignore his last 2 finishes 5th, and 2nd.  Not to mention, this course sets up really good for his game.  Fairways are tough to hit, so he’s used to not being able to hit fairways, and scrambling around the greens is super important here, and that’s Phils specialty.  He’s got a couple of wins here, no missed cuts, and as good as Justin Thomas was to finish the year, he just hasn’t popped yet.  No top 10 finishes in 2018, he’s been good not great, and he doesn’t seem to play great here.  His three finishes here are 39th, 54th and 41st.  I also think Phils got just a little added motivation with Tiger being in the field this week.

  • 14: James Hahn ov Adam Scott
  • Adam Scott has been an atrocity on the golf course recently.  Missed cut and was terrible last week, doesn’t have a round under 70 since August.  His putting has really been the reason, he’s outside the top 200 in many categories.  We talked about him when he just had a baby, now he’s on the cover of a magazine as being the most fashionable guy on tour.  Great, he’s more worried about how he dresses, and not how he putts.  James Haha has been decent…played in 5 straight tournaments, made the cut in all of them, three top 30 finishes in those, and he’s won this tournament before, and 28th here last year.  This line opened at James Hahn +110.  It’s now Hahn +135.

  • 14: Adam Hadwin ov Shane Lowry
  • Bet against Shane Lowry last week and cashed a winner…Shane Lowry just isn’t sharp so far.  Missed cut, 65th and then 43rd in 2018, and he’s only played this tournament once.  It was last year and he WD.  Hadwin has played here three times, and did pretty good.  33th, 22nd and 16th.  So he’s got better tournament history than Lowry, and he’s finished better in both tournaments they’ve played in together this year.

  • 14: Martin Kaymer ov Ryan Moore
  • Ryan Moore was awful at the Waste Management a couple weeks ago in his only 2018 tournament, and although he’s played here a lot, he missed the cut here last year.  This year is shaping up like a mirror image of last year.  Last year he finished 61st at the Waste Management.  This year he missed the cut.  In the 2016 reach around season last year, he made 3 straight cuts, and had 2 top 20 finishes.  Exact same thing happened this year.  Three made cuts, 2 top 20 finishes.  Last year he missed the cut here…I’m expecting something similar from him.  Kaymer solid as always, 19th at the Dubai Classic, 27th at the Abu Dhabi in his tournaments in 2018.

  • 07: Gary Woodland ov Jordan Spieth
  • Last week we said something was wrong with Spieths putting, and we were right.  He couldn’t putt, and then Friday, his tee shots were all over the place.  I don’t care that he won here last year, I know what my eyes see, and I see a golfer who is in a funk going up against a rejuvenated Gary Woodland.  Woodland has a 7th, 12th, and a win in 2018, and he’s been better than Spieth in both tournaments they’ve played in together.  Woodland played in this tournament last year, and finished 5th so he’s comfortable with this tournament…I’m going to keep fading Spieth, and at +160 I love the value.


    *You can also take Rahm -120 ov Spieth.


  • 07: Kevin Streelman ov Bubba Watson
  • Lost a bet against Bubba last week, but I’m going back to the well.  Even though Bubba won his matchup last week, he wasn’t great.  Only finished 40th.  Bubba hasn’t finished ahead of Streelman in the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in.  The other thing is Bubba didn’t play here last year, played 2 years ago and finished 70th, and didn’t play before that in 9 years.  The last 2 years here Streelman has played and has finished 14th, and 17th.

  • 07: Jason Kokrak ov Shane Lowry
  • Lowry has been terrible coming out of his big break in the off-season finishing with a missed cut at the Farmers, and a 65th place finish at the Waste Management.  Kokrak has actually been a little sneaky underrated in 2018 47th at the Sony, 8th at the CareerBuilder, and 31st at the Waste Management.  Last week Lowry didn’t have one round better than Kokrak, and was 9 shots worse over 4 rounds.  I just think Lowry is not in good form right now, Kokrak decent finishes at this tournament so I’m not worried about that.  Funny thing about Shane Lowry.  He’s listed on PGATour.com as being 6 ft 1, and 216 pounds.

  • 07: Brandon Harkins ov Graeme McDowell
  • McDowell has been terrible recently.  In 2018 he has 2 straight missed cuts at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic, and the Abu Dhabi Championship.  Not only that he hasn’t played this tournament in 5 years.  Meanwhile, Harkins is part of the group of guys coming off the Web.com tour, and they’re having early success.  Harkins missed the cut last week by 1 shot, but he’s been good leading up to last week.  25th at the Sony Open, 8th at the Career Builder, and 12th at the Farmers.  It also says a lot that the books opened him up as the favorite.  They know who the better golfer is in this matchup.

  • 07: 2nd round Dustin ov Spieth

- January

  • 30: Matsuyama ov Spieth
  • Spieth has said his putting has been struggling, and the numbers back it up.  In the 2018 season, Spieth is 193rd in putting.  Matsuyama is 31st.  Not sure when Spieth will get his putting back, but this is a course that everyone will be able to drive, and hit greens, but putting ends up being huge.  Matsuyama has been great at this tournament finishing 1st the last 2 years, 2nd and 4th.  Spieth has been good finishing 7th and 9th both times he’s played here, but he only finished 9th at the Tournament of Champions, and 18th at the Sony Open.  Matsuyama was a couple shots better than Spieth at the tournament of champions, and we don’t get too many good opportunities to bet against Spieth, but if his putting isn’t good this week, Matsuyama can gain several strokes on him over the course of the tourney. 

  • 30: Ryan Moore ov Bubba Watson
  • Not a lot of analysis here.  I’m just fading Bubba every chance I get.  Bubba missed the cut at the Career Builder, he missed the cut here last year, Ryan Moore wasn’t great here last year, but he did make the cut.  Just betting against Bubba.

  • 30: Chesson Hadley ov Brandt Snedeker
  • My quest to make back the money from the RSM Classic Brandt Snedeker vs Scott Brown debacle continues.  Last week we won money from Gary Woodland ov Brandt Snedeker…this week I’m taking Chesson Hadley over him at even money.  In January, Hadley has been better than Snedeker in both tourney’s they’ve played in.  Finished 5 shots ahead of him at the CareerBuilder, and 3 shots ahead of him at the Farmers.  This is one of those situations where tournament history doesn’t tell the story.  Hadley has finished 60th, and a missed cut in his only 2 appearances at this tournament in 2016, and 2015, but his form coming into those tournaments are identical to how he finished at this tournament.  Snedekder good tournament history, but after his injury, and his last few tournaments…you can throw his recent finishes here out the window.

  • 30: Lucas Glover ov Luke List
  • By the way…Lucas Glover has the cheesiest smile ever on his pga tour profile page…it’s laugh out loud funny.  Let’s start examining this bet.  First off, Luke List has never made the cut here.  Ever.  So Glover has finished ahead of List every time they’ve played here together.  Glover not great here, but only 2 missed cuts in 10 tournaments here.  Let’s look at recent form, and the only reason this matchup is on the board is because Luke List finished 12th last week, and Glover finished 67th.  However, in the career builder Glover finished 11 shots better than him, and the fact is Glover is just a better golfer than List.  So everyone is going to look at Luke List’s 12th place finish last week.  Take out the reach around season…In 2017 Luke List had 4 top 20 finishes.  He followed those up with a 37th, 41st and 2 missed cuts.  In 2016 he did the same shit…had 3 top 15 finishes followed all of them up with 3 missed cuts.  I don’t think Luke List’s finish last week is any indication of what he’ll do this week, so I’m taking Glover in this matchup.

  • 30: Brian Stuard ov Bryson Dechambeau
  • Not sure why Stuard is plus money in this matchup, but I’ll take it!!!  I’ve never been a Dechambeau fan, and nothing has changed my mind in this matchup.  Missed the cut bad at the Farmers, was terrible at the Tournament of Champions, and at the same time this year, he was awful missing the cut 5 tournaments in a row in January and February.  He’s never played here before, meanwhile Stuard has played here 4 times, made the cut every time, and finished 16th here last year and 10th the time before.  The last time Stuard played in he missed the cut, but that was the weird CareerBuilder…he was 4th at the Sony Open before that.  He was terrible to finish the 2017 season, but he’s looked much better recently…I can’t believe he’s the underdog here.

  • 23: Russell Knox (NC) ov Alex Noren (SC)
  • Not sure why Russell Knox is the underdog here at +115, but I’m happy to be on the dog here.  Knox is off to a good start this year, and it could signal a resurgence for him this year.  2017 was pretty disappointing for him, but he’s started off 2018 with a top 10 at the Sony at 13 under, and then a top 30 finish at the CareerBuilder at 13 under as well.  I’ve always been a little underwhelmed by Alex Noren…in fact he lost his head to head matchup against Tiger at the Hero World Challenge, and he hasn’t played golf since then.  He also has never played this tournament, so he’s playing a weird tournament he’s never played…Knox hasn’t played this tourney in a couple year, but he definitely has the experience edge, and this could be a chance for us to back a golfer like Knox who was bad last year, and if he’s actually back to his 2016 forms, we can get a few soft matchups now until the books catch up.


    *Playing Full Tourney and First Round

  • 23: Ollie Shenanigans (NC) ov Phil Mickelson (NC)
  • I think Phil and Bones splitting was a signal that Phils competitive days are over.  Bones leaves, and goes to the booth, and Phil picks his brother to caddy for him.  So he plays in the Career Builder, and misses the cut by 4 shots…it turns out he’s trying a new driver.  He said he felt good, and that he’s optimistic for the year.  So now we go to this tournament where the South course is really long, and he’s going to have to swing for the fences.  Meanwhile, Ollie is part of the new generation of golfers, and he started 2018 with a 7th place finish at the Sony Open shooting 14 under par…and also, he’s finished ahead of Phil the last 2 years at this tournament.


    *Playing Full Tourney and First Round

  • 23: Kevin Streelman (SC) ov Bill Haas (NC)
  • If someone can explain to me why Kevin Streelman is the underdog here, I’d love to hear it.  I made the case against Bill Haas at the Sony Open and he was terrible and missed the cut.  Then at the Career Builder, he was terrible again, and missed the cut.  Haas has always disappointed, I think he gets a pass because of his last name, but the fact is he isn’t playing good golf now, he didn’t last year, and we get a matchup against a guy who is playing good golf.  Kevin Streelman missed the cut one time since May of 2017, and he’s finished ahead of Haas in 5 straight tournaments, and in the last 2 tournaments, Streelman has finished an average of 9 shots better than Haas.  Haas didn’t play in this tournament last year, missed the cut the year before…Streelman 2 straight made cuts at this tournament.


    *Playing Full Tourney only

  • 23: James Hahn (SC) ov JB Holmes (SC)
  • In his last 17 tournaments going back to April, JB Holmes has finished under par 4 times.  He played twice in the reach around, and was terrible  +14 at the CJ Cup, and +2 missed cut at the Shriners.  Something’s not right with him.  I went back and looked at his previous finishes here, and he’s made the cut at this tournament 4 times in a row, including a couple of top 10s, but I looked at his finishes leading up to the Farmers in those years, and he was always in good form.  He played in Hawaii in previous years, and did good…this year, nothing.  He hasn’t played recently, and when he did play, he was terrible.  James Hahn has started 2018 solid with a second at the Sony, and a 36th at the CareerBuilder.  James Hahn not great tournament history, but he’s made the cut here a couple times…this is basically a big fade on JB Holmes.


    *Playing Full Tourney and First Round

  • 23: Gary Woodland (NC) ov Brandt Snedeker (SC)
  • -Fun Fact:  Since that Brandt Snedeker-Scott Brown bet that went horribly wrong at the RSM Classic, Snedeker has played in 2 tournaments.  He’s withdrew, and missed the cut.


    Small bet against Snedeker here with Gary Woodland.  I have high expectations for Woodland this year, he looked fantastic at the Sony Open where he finished 7th, Snedeker missed the cut last week at the Career Builder…My only hesitation is that Snedeker loves this tournament.  He’s won here twice, a bunch of top 10s…but that was before the injury and swing change.  Woodland is no slouch at this tournament either…2 straight top 20 finishes, never missed the cut.


    *Playing Full Tourney and First Round


  • 17: Andy Sullivan ov Danny Willet
  • Anytime you can bet against Danny Willett…you’re in a good spot.  He’s going down as one of the strangest major and Masters winners ever.  Since that win he’s been awful.  In 2017 on the European Tour he played in 9 tournaments, and finished outside the top 50 in 8 of them.  On the PGA tour he didn’t finish better than 69th in 10 tournaments.  Andy Sullivan has finished tied or ahead of Danny Willet in the last 4 tournaments here…Sullivan played last week and had a decent showing finishing 34th at the BMW SA.

  • 17: Justin Rose ov Rory McIlroy (small play)
  • Look, I know McIlroy’s history here, but this year is different.  He hasn’t played in a tournament in a long time, he’s had an injury and a heart issue to deal with, and Justin Rose has won 3 out of the last 6 tournaments he’s played in.  Rory is going to probably play well, but he’s also going to knocking some rust off where as Rose is in the groove right now.

  • 17: Jason Dufner or Brendan Steele ov Zach Johnson
  • I don’t know what it is, but like clockwork every year Zach Johnson plays good in the wrap around, and in Hawaii, plays great at the Sony Open…then misses the cut at the Career Builder, and plays good after the tournament.  It’s a weird format with different courses, and the pro am adds a lot of extra time to the rounds…apparently Zach doesn’t like it.  Three straight missed cuts at the Career Builder.  And if you look at last week, Zach only had one great round, that was the first round.  The next three he was mediocre to bad.  Both Steele and Dufner have better track records here, Dufner won it two year ago, and finished 25th last year…Steele’s last three finishes here are 6th, 34th, and 2nd.  Dufner coming off 18th and 11th place finishes in his last 2 tournaments, Steele 29th his last tourney so both have decent recent form.  I like both of them over Zach.  I think I’ll do something I don’t normally do, and play both matchups, taking a chance to cash big on fading Zach.

  • 17: Hudson Swafford ov Bubba Watson
  • Going to be fading Bubba Watson a lot this year, and I’ll start this week by picking Hudson Swafford who was last years winner.  Bubba really started to fall off last year, and I haven’t seen anything to convince me he’s turning it around.  He played a couple of tournaments in the wrap around…finished 7th at the QBE (whatever that tournament is), and he couldn’t break into the top 50 in the Shriners and the RSM Classic.  Bubba also hasn’t played this tournament since 2011, and with the slow play and different courses Bubba’s temper could rear is ugly head.  Swafford isn’t an elite talent, but he knows this format well, made the cut 3 out of the 4 times he’s played here, and won his head to head matchup last week.  I’ll take him again this week.

  • 17: Jason Kokrak ov Jimmy Walker
  • Just betting against Jimmy Walker, who as you all know still has Lyme disease.  He shot +4 in the first round, played better the second round, but still missed the cut.  Going back to the wrap around and the 2017 season, he’s missed the cut in 4 straight tournaments, yada yada yada…you know the drill on Jimmy Walker.  Kokrak made the cut last week, and was 7 shots better than Walker, Kokrak not great tournament history…3 missed cuts, an 8th and 48th…but Walker hasn’t played this tournament in 5 years.  Just going to keep fading Jimmy Walker.

  • 17: Alex Cejka ov Blayne Barber
  • I know, I know, I know.  I bet against Blayne Barber after his caddies accident and lost.  But Barber wasn’t good last week, it’s the just the other guy happened to be one of the worst.  I don’t know how focused Barber is going to be this week, and Cejka has finished ahead of Barber in 2 out of the last 3 years.  Cejka was playing good in the wrap around, he finished with 2nd and 9th place finishes…Barbers last 4 finishes were 67th, 25th, 45th and MC.

  • 17: Grayson Murray ov Luke List
  • Not sure why List is the favorite here.  Last year he played great in the wrap around, and in Hawaii, and then when they got back to the main land, List was terrible.  The year before he was bad in the wrap around, randomly finished 6th at this tournament, and was bad after that.  It looks like the 6th place finish is the outlier.  Murray finished 12th here last year in his only time playing here…I’ll make a small play he can duplicate again.

  • 17: Third Round Play. Dufner ov Walker, Rahm ov Bubba parlay
  • I like Dufner ov Walker -1/2, and Rahm ov Bubba -1/2, but the juice is a ton.

    So I'm going to limit my investment, and just parlay these both.  Instead of two plays at -140, and -200...I'm going to parlay them both to get +175.

  • 15: Post questions for me this week on bets or anything else!
  • 09: Charles Howell ov Xander Schauffele and/or Jason Dufner
  • Schaufele had the dramatic win at the Tour Championship, and that’s what everyone remembers, but the fact is he hasn’t been great since then.  3rd at the CIMB Classic, but then 72nd at the Nine Bridges, 46th, and the HSBC Champions, and 22nd last week at the Tourney of Champions.  Charles Howell meanwhile has 3 top 20 finishes in the last 4 tournaments he’s played in, but the big thing for this play is tournament history.  Charles Howell has 8 top 10 finishes in his last 13 tournaments here.  8th last year, 13th the year before, no missed cuts here…Xander has played here once, that was last year and he missed the cut.  The last couple years, Howell has started the year strong, and then kind of fades a big in march and april.  So I’m going to take Howell, who is healthy, and is in the part of the year he plays good, and is at a course he loves to play.

    Jason Dufner played decent last week, but last weeks 11th place finish was his best finish in the last 12 tournaments he’s played in.  He’s played here 9 times, and only has 1 top 10 finish and 3 missed cuts, including a missed cut last year.


    I'm taking Howell ov Jason Dufner.

  • 09: Hudson Swafford ov Jimmy Walker
  • Famous Pieces of Advice.

    Don’t bite the hand that feeds you.  Get busy living or get busy dying.  Ask not what your country can do for you…ask what you can do for your country.  Always bet against a professional golfer who has had lyme for almost a year, and just gave it to his wife.  


    You can go over all the stats you want, you can look at course history, recent performance…but all I know is that Jimmy Walker still has lyme disease, a recent article said that he seems to have finally settled on a treatment program, but he still isn’t 100 percent.  He played one tournament in the reach around season, and that was the Shriners Open, and he shot +5 and missed the cut.  He also missed the cut here last year.  Hudson Swafford isn’t a world beater, but he does actually seem to like this course.  13th, 9th, and 8th 3 out of the last 4 years here.

  • 09: Chez Reavie ov Bill Haas
  • I feel like Bill Haas should be better than his performances show, and I feel like he gets a pass…the guy obviously has talent, but if his last name wasn’t Haas, we wouldn’t think of him in this light of being a great golfer.  No wins last year, 4 top 5s, 5 missed cuts, 13 finishes outside the top 30.  So we get this matchup Haas vs Reavie, and just because of name value, immediately we think Haas.  But let’s look at some of the numbers.  To finish the 2017 season, Reavie finished ahead of Haas in 4 out of the 5 tournaments they played in together.  At the beginning of the year, Reavie finished ahead of Haas in 3 out of the first 4 tournaments they played in together, including the Sony Open where Reavie finished 8th, 3 shots ahead of Haas.  And in the reach around, Haas only has one decent finish which was 17th at the Safeway Open, Reavie finished ahead of Haas in that tournament, Haas also has a 62nd and a missed cut…Reavie has 3 top 15 finishes in the reach around, and his worse finish is 24th.

  • 09: Bonus Play: Kevin Tway ov Jonas Blixt
  • Name the tournament that Jonas Blixt won last year to get his entry into the Tournament of Champions.  Zurich Open…where they have partners.  Take out the Zurich Open…including the reach around, Jonas Blixt  has finished ahead of Kevin Tway in a tournament one time.  That was the Memorial.  The only reason this isn’t a big play is that Tway missed the cut at this tournament last year, but then again so did Blixt…so I’m just betting that Tway has gotten better since last January.  Blixt was terrible last week, he didn’t finish better than 54th in the reach around, one round under 70 in his last 18…

  • 09: Kevin Tway ov Blayne Barber 4th round
  • Crazy story coming out of Hawaii (no, not the false emergency).

    https://www.usatoday.com/story...


    Barber's caddie in pretty serious condition after a fall.  Barber played yesterday, but shot +2, and obviously his heart wasn't in it.  I'd expect a bit more of the same today.  

  • 02: Jordan Spieth ov Dustin Johnson
  • Pretty simple here…Spieth has finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd here in the three times he’s played here.   All three times he’s finished ahead of Dustin, and Dustin has no top 5 finishes in the last 3 tournaments here.  It’s been a while since these guys have played, but Dustin blew that big lead at the WGC a while back, and only finished 14th at the Hero World Challenge.  Spieth played at that same tournament and was 12 shots better than him. 

  • 02: Jon Rahm ov Hideki Matsuyama
  • Love The Hammer going into 2018, and I hope he keeps the momentum going.  Last 4 tournaments of the 2017 PGA season, which were the big ones Northern Trush, Dell, BMW, Tour Championship…3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th.  And after that he went back to the European Tour where he won the World Tour Championship event in Dubai.  He hasn’t played here before, but I don’t really care…Rahm is young and motivated, and is the type of guy that wants to show he belongs with the big boys on tour, so I expect to see him really compete.  Matsuyama came out of the gate strong last year, and played really good at this tourney last year, but he’s been so inconsistent over the last 6 months, I don’t trust him.  Finished the year with 4 straight tournaments outside the top 23, and in the 2018 season he has a 5th at the Hero World Challenge, a 5th at the CIMB Classic, and a 50th at the World Golf Championships.

  • 02: Adam Hadwin ov Billy Horschel
  • Billy Horschel just isn’t very good at golf.  He played in this tournament last year, and finished 24 shots behind the winner.  He doesn’t have a top 25 finish since June 2017, and that was at the CVS Health Charity Classic.  Hadwin started 2017 strong, and tailed off at the end, but even when he wasn’t playing great he still finished ahead of Horschel in the last 3 tournaments they played in together, and those were smaller fields, like this one is.  Hadwin didn’t play in Hawaii last year, but I like that he started last year strong, I think he’ll do it again…I don’t know how Horschel actually won a tournament.

  • 02: 2nd Round Pat Perez ov Hudson Swafford
  • Perez played pretty solid in the first round.  He had 3 bogeys on the front 9, and those were from short missed putts.  No bogeys on the back 9, so expect him to come out strong and make up some shots.  Swafford played OK, but had a wayward tee shot that cost him 2 strokes, but other than that didn't do too much to impress me.  I like Perez here 2nd round.

  • 02: 3rd Round Jordan Spieth ov Jon Rahm
  • Spieth sputtered in round 1, but got back to his normal form in the second round with a round of -7.  He's got himself within striking distance of the lead...I expect another great round as he charges to the front.  Rahm has been good but not great the last 2 rounds, and I'm not sure he is going to be able to keep pace with Spieth today.

  • 02: 4th Round DA Points ov Brooks Koepka
  • Koepka has been awful, especially putting.  He's in last place, there's no motivation to play good, and DA Points wasn't awful yesterday.  Great value at +150.

  • 02: Spieth -1/2 ov Si Woo Kim
  • Lot of juice to lay here, but Spieth should come out on fire, and ready to make a charge.  Si Woo had a good first round, but has been average in rounds 2 and 3.

  • 02: DJ to not win
  • Going to bet against the 3rd round leader to not win the tournament every time this year unless the 3rd round leader is Spieth or Justin Thomas.  This play is +160 right now.

2017

- December

  • 24: Here are the details!!! Get in quick...it starts in less than 2 weeks!!!
  • Fantasy golf is back....Yahoo isn't hosting golf so we will play through pgatour.com

    Season is less than 2weeks away!!!

    Invite your friends!!!!

    Click the link below....
    https://fantasygolf.pgatour.com/#/roster

    Join the league: Beers Bowditch Bongs
    Password: panicfreaks

    Pay the $75 to leaguesafe,com
    The league payment deadline is 4/5/2018. 

    Here is the link!
    https://www.leaguesafe.com/join/3855053/beers-bowditch-bongs

    Once you have paid, email PLEASE EMAIL ME at:
    buckeyesandpanic@gmail.com
    Please put in subject: Fantasy Golf Paid
    Include: Your full real name (So I know who to pay..we have several Scott's)
    Include : Your Golf Team Name

    The rules are much different so please read through the scoring on the league homepage!!

    Payouts at end of season.

    1st Place Each Segment (% of Total Pot): 8%, 8%, 8%
    2nd Place Each Segment: 5%, 5%, 5%
    3rd Place Each Segment: 2%, 2%, 2%

    Full Season Champ = 30% Total Pot
    Full Season 2nd Place= 15% Total Pot
    Full Season 3rd Place =10% Total Pot

- November

  • 29: *Euro Tour-Sergio Garcia ov Adam Scott
  • Adam Scott has just lose his edge, he had a kid, he’s just not the golfer he was.  Looking at the 2017 season, in the entire season he had 4 top 10 finishes.  CIMB Classic, Masters, The Players, and the St Jude.  He played in 1 European Tour in 2017, finished 35th.  In the 2018 season, he’s played in 2 tournaments, finished 25th at the CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges, and 50th at the HSBC Champions.  Hasn’t shot a round under 70 in a tournament since August.  Meanwhile, Sergio has coming off a win, a 4th, and a 19th in his last 3 tournaments.  Adam Scott finished 3rd here last year, but he was playing really good, and around the same time as the tournament last year he had two second place finishes, and two wins.

  • 29: Stenson ov Reed
  • Stenson finished 2nd here last year finishing 8 shots better than Reed.  He played great at the HSBC Champions event against good competition, in that same tournament Reed finished 50th.  Then Reed missed the cut at the OHL Classic.  Here’s the big thing.  Reed’s wife is pregnant, and her due date is Dec. 6th.  If she goes into labor, he’s gone, but even so, how focused is Reed going to be?

  • 29: Justin Thomas first round -1/2 ov Tiger Woods
  • Best bet I could find to fade El Tigre.

  • 14: Scott Brown ov Brandt Snedeker
  • In this matchup, one golfer is healthy, and has played golf in 5 out of the last 6 weeks.  That golfer has made the cut in every tournament.  In those 5 tournaments, 3 of those have been top 20 finishes, and 2 of those have been top 6 finishes.  This golfer has played this tournament 4 times, and has 3 top 20 finishes in those tournaments.  The other golfer hasn’t played in almost 3 months because of a pretty bad sternum joint injury.  That golfer was told by doctors he could rest, or get a metal plate inserted to attach to his upper and lower sternum.  In September this golfer said that hitting the ball caused vibrations that caused extreme pain.  This golfer had to completely change his diet, had to wear a bone stimulator 30-40 minutes a day, and the doctors couldn’t tell him when he could play because they’ve never seen this injury in a golfer.  In an interview, he said that while getting ready for this tournament, he would hit one ball and then would have to wait 10 minutes to hit another one.  That would only be possible on the tour if you were playing with Jordan Spieth and Kevin Na who take for fucking ever to hit their shots.  He said he could play for an hour, and then he would have to quit.  Football players get this injury from blunt force trauma, and they sit for 6 weeks and it’s fine.  It’s taken this golfer 20 weeks to come back, oh and by the way he said if it doesn’t feel good this week, surgery is still on the table.  He said he’s been playing at home, but he doesn’t know whats going to happen when he gets in bunkers or rough lies.  He’s had to completely change his swing to accommodate for the pain.  Add to that he says, “I have some arthritis and inflammation in the joint.  Anyone thats had arthritis knows it can be nagging and awful the more you use it, the worse it gets.  Unfortunately, that where mine has gotten to”.  Oh, and he’s played this tournament three times when he’s been healthy, and has finished 45th, MC, 32nd.

    The first golfer is Scott Brown…the second golfer is Brandt Snedeker.  Scott Brown in the underdog.


    Huge, huge play for me this week.

  • 14: Charles Howell ov Webb Simpson
  • We cashed a bet with Howell last week noting that he seemed to be getting back into a groove and that he’d gotten better the last few weeks, and he played great last week finishing 4th.  Last year right around this time in the reach around season he ripped off 8 straight top 15 finishes, and it looks like he’s getting ready to go on a run like that again.  Good course history here with a 13th, and 9th the last couple years.  Webb Simpson is a solid golfer, but he’s not as good as Howell is when Chuck is on.  Webb’s last 2 tourneys here 41st, 36th…I just wanted to support Howell this week, and I get him as the underdog this week.

  • 14: Patrick Rogers ov Bubba Watson
  • Lost a bet to Bubba a couple weeks ago when Bubba still wasn’t good…I just think betting against Bubba is a good long term strategy.  Rogers pretty solid in the reach around, a missed cut, 43rd, 23rd, 33rd, and 14th last week.  One thing I really like about this play is that Rogers has played this tournament twice before, and last year he finished 10th.  Bubba hasn’t played here ever.  Rogers underdog.  

  • 14: Beau Hossler ov Byeung Hun An
  • Hossler has been playing really good recently, 34th last week, 7th before that, 10th before that…in face he’s been better than Byeung Hun An 3 tournaments in a row.  I think Hun An sucks, he was terrible last week, neither one of these guys have played this tournament…I think Hossler could be a potential draftkings darling moving forward, and I’ll happily take him ov Hun An this week.

  • 09: Charles Howell ov Byeung Hun An
  • Charles Howell looks like he is back from his injury, as he’s gotten immensely better the last 3 tournaments.  59th 4 weeks ago, then 19th, then 15th.  Solid tournament history here with a 7th last year, 17th before that, 6 total top 20 finishes at this tournament.  Byeung Hun aAn has been ok recently, but he’s never played here, and one reason I think we’re getting this matchup is that Hun An finished better in the last couple tourneys he and Howell have played in together, but that doesn’t take into account Howell coming back and improving.  Hun An has never played at this tournament, so I like Howell’s experience here.

  • 09: Jason Kokrak ov Anirban Lahiri
  • Lahiri had a couple of nice tournaments in a row where he finished 9th, 10th, and 5th.  Last week he came back to earth finishing in 51st.  And that pretty much sums up Anirban Lahiri.  Couple of good finishes, and then he goes back to bad finishes.  In 2017 he had 8 top 20 finishes, but 12 finishes outside the top 50.  His really good finishes were all over the board, no consistency, and he tends to have way more runs of bad finishes than good finishes.  I’m betting he’s getting ready to go on a bad run.  Kokrak on the other hand has been fairly consistent, 3 straight top 20 finishes in 2018, and he finished the 2017 season with 4 made cuts at the big boy tournaments, and what I love about Kokrak this week is that he’s played here 3 times, and has finished 17th, 16th, and 15th, so I have a pretty good idea of what I’m getting this week in Kokrak.

  • 09: Eddie Pepperell ov Thorbjorn Olesen
  • Pepperell has 6 top 10 finishes in his last 7 tournaments!!!  Dude is on fire, how did we lose money on him last week?!?  Olsen has 1 top 10 finish in the last 3 months, of course it was last week when we bet against him…Olesen has played here once, that was last year where he finished 63rd.  I’m betting more on Pepperell this week than I did last week…Last week was the exception, not the rule…we make our money back and then some this week.

  • 01: Kevin Streelman ov Bubba Watson
  • Bubba hasn’t played in two months, he really wasn’t good last season.  He also hasn’t played this tournament in 9 years.  I don’t think this course sets up very good for him as this course requires you to hit the fairway, and he was 112th in driving accuracy in 2017.  161st in greens in regulation…those are really important stats at this tournament.  Kevin Streelman, meanwhile, has played twice in the reach around, and has a 13th, and a 10th, so I like that he’s in a groove.  I know it’s early, but he ranks 3rd in greens in regulation so far in 2018, and this isn’t a fluke for Streelman.  30th in driving accuracy and 64th in greens in regulation last year.  Streelman has played in this tournament 7 times, has never missed the cut, has a 2nd place finish, and 4 top 16 finishes here.  Kevin Streelman the underdog here.

  • 01: Eddie Pepperell ov Thorbjorn Olesen (European Tour)
  • Oleson won this tournament last year, and that’s why we’re getting this matchup.  Everyone is going to see that win, but they’re going to ignore his previous finishes here.  41st, 71st, and 29th.  But looking at recent performance, Pepperell is absolutely on fire.  Five top 10 finishes in his last 6 tournaments, and three of those were top 5 finishes.  Olesen doesn’t have a top 30 finish in his last 4 tournaments, and in the last 4 tournaments they’ve played in together, Pepperell has finished ahead of Olesen.  Don’t let Olesen’s win last year scare you…Pepperell is the better golfer right now.

  • 01: Kevin Tway ov Patrick Rodgers 2nd round
  • Rodgers was awful yesterday, and looking back to last years reach around season...he was awful in the first rounds, and the second rounds.  Rodgers probably knows he's not going to make the cut so I don't see the motivation.  Tway looked solid yesterday and is within a few shots of the lead so he'll be motivated and  looking to keep up.

- October

  • 17: Xander Schaufele ov Marc Leishman
  • Xander’s last two tournaments are a win and a 3rd.  Leishman’s last tournament was the Presidents Cup where he wasn’t great.  I love that Xander was on that side of the world last week, and his body clock is used to it over there.  Not sure if Leishman is going to be as comfortable over there as Xander is right now.  I think Schauffele is on fire right now, and I’m going to keep riding him.

  • 17: Paul Casey ov Justin Thomas
  • Justin Thomas looked really tired last week.  Announcers were talking about how hard Justin Thomas’s schedule has been, and that it was really affecting him.  Pretty surprised to see he’s playing this tournament if he’s been worn out, but here’s the thing…the weather is supposed to be colder, and there’s going to be wind.  If Thomas is tired, and worn out, I don’t see him enjoying the cold and wind.  Casey was terrible in the first round last week, but rallied to finish 7th.  It’s yet another tournament where Paul Casey finished right near the top, I think he’s going to have more energy this week, and won’t get as frustrated if the cold and wind pick up.  Casey +140 in this matchup.

  • 17: Kevin Tway ov Charles Howell III
  • Charles Howell coming off of an injury, and he’s been terrible.  Starting with The British Open he’s shot +9, +13, +7, +7, +3, and then only 3 under last week where most of the field tore it up.  Tway has finished ahead of Howell in the last 5 tournaments they’ve played in, and in those tournaments Howell’s combined score is 27 shots over par…Tway’s combined score is 20 shots under par.

  • 17: Stewart Cink ov Patrick Rodgers
  • Stewart Cink seems really undervalued in this matchup, especially since he’s finished ahead of Rodgers in the last 5 contests they’ve played in together.  Cink 13th last week, Rodgers 23rd, and that’s Rodgers best finish in a long time where as Cink has been that solid most of the 2017 season.  Rodgers hasn’t played in East Asia ever, Cink has at least played in 4 East Asia tournaments, so he might feel just a little more comfortable in this tournament.

  • 17: Jason Day ov Adam Scott 2nd round
  • I thought about fading Adam Scott, but didn't pull the trigger with Daniel Berger...I love it second round with Jason Day.  Day had a random double bogey, and he still finished -4.  Adam Scott had a couple birdies, couple bogeys, but looked average like he has for a while.  I'll take Day ov Scott 2nd round.

  • 12: Paul Casey ov Hideki Matsuyama
  • Matsuyama played incredible in his last round at the Presidents Cup against Justin Thomas where at one point he was -8 through 9 holes.  But that round really looks like the exception based on how he’s playing right now.  Matsuyama goes through these periods where he looks like the best golfer on the planet, and then he’ll go 2 months where we looks like a web.com player.  He has great course history, there’s no doubt, but Paul Casey is playing way better than Hideki.  Casey has finished ahead of Hideki in the last 4 tournaments by an average of 25 positions.  Casey not fantastic course history here that’s why this isn’t a huge play for me, but he’s improved his position every year the last 3 years…My favorite part of this play is that Paul Casey is +115.

  • 12: Kevin Na ov Branden Grace
  • One of the best ways to make money betting golf is to find guys that are in a funk, and load up against them until they get right.  Branden Grace is officially in a funk.  He has a very impressive 6th place finish at The British Open, but lets look at the other PGA Tour events outside of Europe.  28th at the Bridgestone, 50th US Open, 48th, The Players, MC PGA Championship, MC Northern Trust, 25 at the Dell Technologies, and then last week at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the European Tour 47th (cashed a bet Fleetwood ov Grace).  Kevin Na has finished ahead of Grace in the last 4 tournaments they’ve played in, and Grace has played here twice, both times Na has finished ahead of him, and Na has 3 top 10 finishes here.

  • 12: Bud Cauley ov Thomas Pieters
  • Weird play here because I feel like Thomas Pieters is a somewhat big name, and Bud Cauley sounds like a NASCAR driver, but the numbers don’t lie and Bud Cauley is playing better golf right now.  It’s not so much that Cauley is playing great golf, but Pieters is kind of a disaster right now.  Lets look at his last 4 tournaments on the European Tour.  74th Portugal Masters +2, 66th D+D Real Czech Masters +9, Missed cut at the Made in Denmark, 128th Dubai Irish Open.  Last time he played on the PGA tour he missed the cut at the PGA Championship.  4th at the Bridgestone, but a 44th at the British Open, Missed Cut at the US Open.  Bud Cauley hasn’t been spectacular, but he only has one missed cut in the last 7 tournaments, -9 at the BMW, and last week tied 7th at the Safeway Open shot -10.

  • 12: Adam Hadwin ov Peter Uihlein
  • I didn’t pull the trigger fading Peter Uihlein last week…not gonna make that mistake again.  Uihlein won a web.com tour event to get his PGA Tour card.  That was a complete flash in the pan, and he’s been bad besides that win.  Missed the cut last week at the Safeway Open, missed the cut at the DAP Championship on the web.com tour, 29th at the star-studded Albertsons Boise Open, missed the cut at the PGA Championship…since June on the PGA and European tour he’s combined to play in 7 tournaments…only 2 did he finish under par.  Hadwin was great earlier in the year, then started fade, but it looks like he’s coming back around, 13th, 40th, 23 in his last 3 tournaments and those were ACTUAL tournaments…Tour Championship, BMW, Dell Championship, not web.com tournaments.  Hadwin is just better, finished 21st here last year Uihlein hasn’t ever played here…and right now Hadwin is +125…I don’t get it, but I’ll happily take it.

  • 12: Justin Thomas to win
  • In 99% of these situations, I would say Justin Thomas is in a letdown situation.  He was player of the year, won a major, won the FedEx Cup, was on the winning team at the Presidents Cup…why would he care about this tournament?  Because he’s won this tournament two times in a row, and he can get the hat trick, and win it 3 times in a row…something that is never done in Golf, and don’t think these guys don’t have egos about shit like this.  You know how I know he cares about winning this tournament?  BECAUSE HE’S PLAYING IN IT!!!  There is absolutely no reason for Justin Thomas to play in this tournament, other than he’s going for 3 wins in a row.  After the year he just had, and the last 3 months he had, if he had finished 5th, and 10th at this tournament that’s on the other side of the world, with the time change being ridiculous, do you think he would be playing in this tournament?  HELL NO.  He just won $10 million.  He doesn’t need the money from the CIMB classic.

  • 04: Martin Flores ov Bronson Burgoon
  • Not really sure why Flores is the underdog here.  Burgoon didn't play on the PGA tour this year, and while he finished decent on the web.com tour, he still isn't on the same level as Flores.  Hasn't missed a cut since June, and 4 out of his last 5 tournaments resulted in top 20 finishes.

  • 04: Luke List ov Chesson Hadley
  • Same thing going on here in this matchup.  Hadley was good on the web.com tour, but List has been playing on the tour, and playing pretty decent.  One missed cut in the last 7, 20th at the BMW in the last tournament he played in.  List is just better than Hadley.

- September

  • 21: Brooks Koepka ov Matsuyama
  • Since Matsuyama screwed around with his putter, and switched, he’s gone missed cut 23rd, 47th.  Koepka started the fedex cup with a 49th place finish, but has gotten better in each tourney after.  49th, then 18th, and 12th.  I like the momentum Brooks has, he’s won a major this year so he’s not scared of a big time tournament…and Koepka is the underdog here!

  • 21: Patrick Cantlay ov Kevin Chappell
  • More like Patric Can-lay right KJ?!?  Amiright?!?!  Little bit of a guy call here.  Cantlay cashed a nice bet last week…I’m going to keep riding him here.  In the fedex cup Cantlay has a 10th, 13th, and 9th…he’s been great and consistent.  Chappell not as consistent, Cantlay made it into this tournament on the last hole…I think he’s excited and motivated…and I love golfers with momentum.

  • 21: Pat Perez ov Jason Dufner
  • Really liked what I saw from Perez the last two tournaments.  Last week his irons were fantastic, he missed a couple of short putts otherwise his finish would have been even better.  Perez 34th in the first fedex cup tournament, but then 6th, and 12th in the last two.  Dufner not great in the fedex cup, 20th, 69th, and 58th.

  • 20: Brooks Koepka ov Hideki Matsuyama
  • Since Matsuyama screwed around with his putter, and switched, he’s gone missed cut 23rd, 47th.  Koepka started the fedex cup with a 49th place finish, but has gotten better in each tourney after.  49th, then 18th, and 12th.  I like the momentum Brooks has, he’s won a major this year so he’s not scared of a big time tournament…and Koepka is the underdog here!

  • 20: Pat Perez ov Jason Dufner
  • Really liked what I saw from Perez the last two tournaments.  Last week his irons were fantastic, he missed a couple of short putts otherwise his finish would have been even better.  Perez 34th in the first fedex cup tournament, but then 6th, and 12th in the last two.  Dufner not great in the fedex cup, 20th, 69th, and 58th.

  • 20: Patrick Cantlay ov Keven Chappell
  • More like Patrick Can-lay right?!?  Amiright?!?!  Little bit of a guy call here.  Cantlay cashed a nice bet last week…I’m going to keep riding him here.  In the fedex cup Cantlay has a 10th, 13th, and 9th…he’s been great and consistent.  Chappell not as consistent, Cantlay made it into this tournament on the last hole…I think he’s excited and motivated…and I love golfers with momentum.

  • 12: Paul Casey ov Rory McIlroy
  • Rory McIlroy is a combined +6 in the fedex cup, missed cut last week.  His game just isn’t very good right now, he’s hurt, where as Paul Casey is surging.  He’s -18 in the fedex cup, and his worse finish in his last 6 tournaments is 13th.  Rory has the name, but right now doesn’t the game…Paul Casey has been playing near the top of the leaderboard recently, and I expect the same thing this week.

  • 12: Paul Casey ov Jason Day
  • Out of the last 7 tournaments they’ve played in together, Paul Casey has finished ahead of Jason Day in 6 of them.  We went over Paul Casey above,  This isn’t a big time rip on Jason Day, but Paul Casey is plus money in this matchup…I think that’s incredible value, so I’m happy to play this one.

  • 12: Patrick Cantalay ov Daniel Berger
  • More like Patrick Can-alay, amirite?!?!?!?  I love Patrick Cantalay, he’s been really good since coming back from his injury, and he’s been dialed in the fedex cup.  10th, and 13th, no rounds over par, he just look really good and consistent.  Daniel Berger has been a little bit of a mess in the fedex cup, missed the cut at the PGA Championship before that…he’s got 4 rounds above 4 in the fedex cup, 33rd and 61 place finishes.

  • 12: Ryan Moore ov Ollie Shenanigans
  • Ryan Moore withdrew at the last tournament, but an injury was cited as the reason.  You know the reason?  He had a shitty first round, was completely out of the running, and just wanted to get home.  Ollie has proven over the last 2 weeks he’s just not on the same level with the elite golfers, we’ve cashed big bets against him the last 2 tournaments…I expect to do the same here.  He hasn’t been close to competitive.  Missed cuts in both tourneys, +8, and +10.  I expect Ryan Moore to bounce back, and play good enough to beat Ollie.

  • 12: Si Woo Kim ov Billy Horschel
  • Pretty easy pick here.  Si Woo has made the cut in both the FedEx Cup tournaments, and Horschel hasn't been even close.  Every decent tournament Horschel has been in recently, he's been way over par.  +4, +5 in the FedEx Cup, +5 PGA Championship, and don't forget the +19 at the Bridgestone.  

- August

  • 31: Rickie Fowler ov Rory McIlroy
  • One golfer is healthy…one golfer almost shut it down for the rest of the season because he keeps re-injuring his back.  I’ll take the healthy golfer.  Not only is Fowler healthy, he’s been great.  5th, 9th, 22nd, 9th, 3rd, 5th, 20th in his last 7 tournaments, so even if Rory finishes the tournament, Fowler can easily be ahead of him.  I think Rory will probably finish the tournament, but I’m not sure if he can finish strong on the weekend, and if he’s not feeling good, I think a withdraw is a possibility.  (That’s the exact same writeup from last week).

  • 31: Brian Harman ov Ollie Shenanigans
  • Had a nice win against Ollie last week, going to try it again this week with Brian Harman.  Harman finished three shots better than Ollie last week, and had a 13th place finish at the Pga Championship.  Ollie didn’t play in the majors, Harman was better than him at the John Deere which was the last tournament besides the northern trust they played in together.  Ollie is just not as good as some of these guys he’s playing against in these tournaments.  (I made this play yesterday, and the line moved big time…I’d still play it at -160)

  • 31: Webb Simpson ov Sergio Garcia
  • Sometimes a golfer flies under the radar and we don’t notice til too late…Webb may be that golfer.  He was top 37 at the last 3 majors, which is better than Sergio, and Webb’s last two finishes were 3rd at the Wyndham and 6th last week at the Northern Trust.  Last time Sergio had a finish better than those two on the PGA Tour was his win at the Masters.  Since that win, no top 10s., only 2 top 20s.  I love getting the underdog here when it appears he’s playing much better golf

  • 31: Lucas Glover ov Cabrera Bello 1ST ROUND
  • Cabrera Bello has been awful.  +11 in two rounds at the Northern Trust missed cut, +7 at the Pga Championship missed cut.  +14 in 4 rounds at the WGC Bridgestone.  Glover got hurt last week, but I think he’ll play and be healthy for the first round.  If Cabrera Bello is hurt, or something is wrong, he’ll suck, and we’ll win the bet.  If he plays good, we’ll win.  Glover isn’t going to be near the top of the leaderboard, but Rafa won’t either…I’m betting that Glovers injury isn’t as bad as Rafa’s game is.

  • 31: Jason Day top Australian player even money
  • Others are Adam Scott +200, and Marc Leishman.  Adam Scott has 0 top 5 finishes this year, and has not been as good as Day recently.

  • 31: Louis Oosthuizen top South African
  • Others are Branden Grace +250, and Charl Schwartzel +250.  Grace has 2 straight missed cuts, Charl not great recently and Louis loves this tournament.

  • 22: Paul Casey ov Jon Rahm (5dimes) full tourney and first round
  • Rahm has really started to slow down after his blistering start to the season. Starting in June, he missed two cuts, and then had a 44th, 28th, and 58th on the Pga Tour.  Meanwhile Paul Casey has been world class.  Since the Masters, his worse finish is 26th, he has 7 top 15 finishes, and he’s coming off of two strong performances at the major championships.  I think Rahm is slowing down, maybe the season is starting to wear on him…but I love Paul Casey in this matchup, especially when Casey is the underdog.

  • 22: Charley Hoffman ov Justin Rose (5dimes) full tourney and first round
  • Since losing to Sergio Garcia at the Masters, Justin Rose has gone missed cut, 65th, missed cut, 54th, 63rd, missed cut.  No idea if he’s injured, or if he’s still embarrassed to lose to Sergio Garcia, but he’s been terrible.  Hoffman has been a little up and down recently, but even his worse finish recently isn’t as bad as Rose’s best finish.  Hoffman has 4 top 10 finishes in the last 7 tournaments, no missed cuts.  This is just a massive fade of Justin Rose.

  • 22: Rickie Fowler ov Rory McIlroy (5dimes) full tourney and first round
  • One golfer is healthy…one golfer almost shut it down for the rest of the season because he keeps re-injuring his back.  I’ll take the healthy golfer.  Not only is Fowler healthy, he’s been great.  5th, 9th, 22nd, 9th, 3rd, 5th in his last 6 tournaments, so even if Rory finishes the tournament, Fowler can easily be ahead of him.  I think Rory will probably finish the tournament, but I’m not sure if he can finish strong on the weekend, and if he’s not feeling good, I think a withdraw is a possibility.

  • 22: Tony Finau ov Ollie Shenanigans (5dimes) full tourney and first round
  • It’s juicy, but I’ll happily take Finau ov Ollie.  Ollie finished 2nd last week at the Wyndham…congratulations on finishing second in a garbage shit tournament.  Let’s look at Ollie’s finished before that.  Missed cut at the Barracuda, 54th at the Canadian, 39th at the John Deer, DQ at the Greenbriar…we don’t like cheaters on this podcast KJ.  He didn’t play in any of the majors, where as Finau played in the last 2 majors, made the cut in both, 44th and 27th, and hasn’t missed a cut in 10 tournaments.  Five top 15 finishes in that span, and this course sets up nice for him in this matchup.  He drives the ball 10 yards longer than Ollie, and these fairways are big, so I like Finau big here.

  • 22: Lucas Glover ov Kyle Stanley (5dimes) full tourney and first round
  • Kyle Stanley has kind of fallen apart in his last 5 tournaments.  He won the Quicken Loans, and since then has gone 55th, 41st, and 3 missed cuts, including a missed cut last week at the Wyndham.  Lucas Glover has been much better than that, and has finished way ahead of Stanley in the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together.  Sneaky play most people will miss.

  • 22: Matsuyama ov DJ (5dimes) full tourney
  • After seeing massive line movement, we're going to play Matsuyama ov Dustin. Matsuyama has been the best golfer on the planet recently, and when he's on, he's awesome. Dustin hasn't been the same since the Masters "incident", and Matsuyama has outscored DJ by 5 strokes at the PGA Championship, 13 strokes at the Bridgestone, 6 strokes at the British, 16 strokes at the US Open, and 6 strokes at the Memorial. This play was -145 when it opened. I see it -105, -115, and at that price we'll happily play it. Not sure why so many people are on DJ in this matchup, but I'm glad they are.

  • 08: Matsuyama ov Dustin Johnson
  • I’ve learned my lesson.  When Matsuyama is playing at an elite level…bet on him.  A win last week in a stacked field, 4 straight top 15 finishes, and he’s finished ahead of Dustin in the last 4 tournaments they’ve played in together.  The price is -110 right now, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it moved towards Dustin.  So if you want to jump in now, I think the general uneducated public (who only bets on the Majors, and doesn’t know the real story with what’s going on with Dustin and Matsuyama, so I think you might be able to wait a bit and play this closer to tee times.  Only full tourney.

  • 08: Jordan Spieth ov Dustin Johnson
  • Spieth playing great as well as Matsuyama, and they’re both playing better than Dustin.  Spieth also has finished ahead of Dustin in the last 4 tournaments they’ve played in together.  I may get burned betting against Dustin, but I don’t trust how he’s playing, he came out and said he’s still not 100%, and that’s a massive red flag at a very long and grueling course.

  • 08: Rickie Fowler ov Jason Day
  • We’ve been fading Jason Day in head to head matchups all year, and there are several options this week in head to heads.  Rahm, Koepka, and Fowler are matched up against him, but I find Rahm way too inconsistent, so it came down to Koepka and Fowler, and I’m going with Fowler, who’s been better than Jason Day pretty much all year.  Fowler better than Day at all the majors this year, and Jason Day has never finished ahead of Fowler at any tournament they’ve played in together this year.  I don’t see why that changes this year.

  • 08: Paul Casey ov Justin Rose
  • Not sure what happened to Justin Rose after the Masters, but apparently losing to Sergio Garcia in a clutch situation has really scarred Rose.  Since the Maters, he has no top 50 finishes on the PGA tour, two missed cuts, a 65th, 54th, and 63rd.  Paul Casey on the other hand down’t have a finish outside of the top 26 since the Masters, and he’s got 5 top 15 finishes in that time span, and he’s crushed Rose in head to heads at the US Open, The British, and the Bridgestone last week.  Really like this matchups.

  • 08: Jamie Lovemark ov Francesco Molinari
  • I’ll take a stab at Lovemark here, especially since he’s a massive underdog at +135.  Molinari has really been a disappointment recently. with some uncharacteristically bad finishes.  Compare that to Lovemark, and he’s been surprisingly good.  If you put these two recent forms next each other with no names, you would guess Molinari’s is Lovemarks and Lovemarks is Molinaris.  Lovemark has one finished outside the top 30 in the last 7 tournaments, and he’s been better than Molinari at the last two majors, and Molinari has missed the cut at the last two majors.  And Molinari is an accurate driver, but not very long.  291 yards.

  • 08: Li Hoatong ov Russell Knox
  • Going to take a stab here with Li here as a big underdog at +155 in this matchup.  Knox finished 5th last week at the Bridgestone, but he’s missed the cut at all the majors this year, and he’s been a massive disappointment.  Haotong Li has finished better than Knox at the two majors he’s played in, the US Open and the British…so I love the value here.  Since February, Knox only has 2 finishes inside the top 37, and he has 8 missed cuts in that same time period.

  • 08: Lowest Round over or under 63.5.
  • Under.  This course is too long for someone to shoot this low.

  • 08: Best Finish from a former winner...Rory McIlroy
  • Rory McIlroy best finish from a former winner.  -110.  The others in this group are a struggling Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Keegan Bradley, Jason Dufner, Padraig Harrington, Vijay, John Daly.  Love the odds here.

  • 08: First Round Grace ov Perez
  • Don't really see the motivation for DJ here to play great.  Looking at his round today where he shot +2, it was full of bogeys.  It wasn't just one bad hole.  I see missed putts, missed approach shots...just a lot of mental mistakes, and I don't see how he improves by 2 shots tomorrow.

  • 08: Kuchar Noren, Poulter, Reed, Speith, Weisberger
  • 08: Fowler, D.J., Zach Johnson, Kisner, X. Schauffele, Walker
  • 08: Finau, Zach Johnson, Matzu, McIlroy, Poulter, Westwood
  • 02: Spieth ov DJ 5dimes (WGC Bridgestone)
  • DJ played decent last week, but faded towards the end and that seems to be the recent trend for him.  He even said after the tournament that he's not 100%.  I don't see the motivation for him this week to go hard all four rounds.  I see him using this tournament to sharpen up, work on a few things, and get ready for next week.  Spieth right now is in the zone, and I don't see him slowing down at all.  Really like him to compete for the win.

  • 02: Matsuyama ov Stenson 5dimes (WGC Bridgestone)
  • Stenson has admitted that he hasn't been sharp this year (not that his results didn't show us that already), but it's been very interesting how he's struggled in US tournaments, but has been better in Europe.  So I'll fade Stenson on US soil with Matsuyama, who has been hitting his stride recently, and it wouldn't surprise me if he picks up a win within the next two weeks.

  • 02: Rafa Cabrera Bello ov Justin Thomas 5dimes (WGC Bridgestone)
  • Justin Thomas has missed the cut the last three tournaments he's played in, and he's been pretty bad.  Cabrera Bello has been very sharp recently.  A win at the Scottish, a 4th at The British, and that makes 3 4th place finishes in 5 of his last PGA tours.  Thomas his last three tournaments he's shot +5, +5, +7.

  • 02: Henley ov Bubba 5dimes (WGC Bridgestone)
  • Still don't understand why Bubba is the big favorite in matchups.  Bubba lost last week in the head to head again, yet Henley is +130 here.  Henley is 4-0 in the last 4 tournaments they've played in together, and Bubba has good course history here, but he has good course history at a lot of courses, and this year it doesn't really matter.

  • 02: Xander Schaufele ov Francesco Molinari 5dimes (WGC Bridgestone)
  • I hate betting against my boyfriend, but he's been off his game recently.  Missed cut, 24th, Missed cut, 38th.  Xander, meanwhile, has been fantastic.  5th, 14th, 35th, 1st and 20th in his last 5 tournaments, and they haven't been fluff tourneys.  I also like him this week because there's no cut, and I like the younger motivated golfer to want to play hard all weekend long.  Not sure what Molinari's motivation will be if he's not up at the top after Friday.

  • 02: Spieth ov Rory First Round 5dimes (WGC Bridgestone)
  • Rory tends to struggle in first rounds, and after firing his caddie, it wouldn't surprise me if he struggles out of the gate here.  Rory was really bad on the front 9 at the British, and I thought he got pretty lucky on the back 9 with some longer putts and chips falling.  I like Spieth to start strong, and get near the top early.

- July

  • 27: Tony Finau ov Bubba Watson
  • Last week Bubba finished ahead of Henley in his head to head matchup by one shot, and that was because Henley had a bizarre +5 on Saturday.  I’ll keep fading Bubba this week though with Tony Finau who finished tied with Bubba last week, but has finished ahead of him in the previous few tournaments, and has been better than Bubba for most of the year.  Nothing really stands out as far as tournament history in this matchup so I’m sticking with Finau who has been really underrated this year.

  • 27: Danny Lee ov Kevin Chappell
  • The last time we saw Danny Lee he withdrew from the John Deere for “undisclosed reasons”.  Those reasons were that he had a shitty first round 74 and didn’t want to stay around and miss the cut.  People are going to focus on that and not focus on how good he was before that.  In the 7 tourneys before that 4 top 10s, and a 22nd, no missed cuts.  He finished 32nd here last year, 34th in 2014.  Kevin Chappell meanwhile is in the middle of the down side of his roller coaster season and career…he was good at the US Open and the Fed Ex St Jude, but his last two tournaments he’s missed the cut horrifically at the Quicken Loans, and the British, he didn’t play here last year, in 2015 he missed the cut, hasn’t been good here…I love the upside of Danny Lee here.

  • 27: Keegan Bradley ov Patrick Rogers
  • Patrick Rogers has been improving, and really good recently, but here’s a stat that will surprise you.  Since June Keegan and Rogers have played in 4 tournaments together.  Keegan has finished ahead of Rogers in all of them.  So as good as Rogers has been, he hasn’t been better than Keegan.  Rogers made the cut here last year, Keegan hasn’t played this tournament in a few years…so just a little play on the guy who’s won the most recent head to head matchups.  Keegan the underdog here  +120

  • 27: Ricky Barnes ov Will McGirt
  • Why is Ricky Barnes +145 in this matchup?  Let’s start with the last 2 years at the Canadian Open.  Barnes 5th and 11th…McGirt 59th, and 34th.  And let’s look at recent history…Barnes is 4-1 against McGirt in the previous 5 tourneys they’ve played in together.  Barnes coming off a good performance at the Barbasol, McGirt a +9 missed cut at the British so Barnes might have a little bit more confidence.

  • 27: Ryan Palmer ov Johnny Vegas
  • Why is Johnny Vegas favored over anyone right now?  Palmer is +145 in this matchup, and it’s all because Vegas won this tourney last year, but this year is different.  Palmer hasn’t been great, but he’s been better than Vegas and that isn’t saying much.  8 missed cuts in his last 10 tournaments.  Here are his scores in his last 5 tourneys.  +11, +8, +4, +8, +11.  Palmer 4-1 against Vegas head to head the last 5 tournaments they’ve played in together.  Palmer not fantastic history in the Canadian Open, but he always makes the cut.

  • 27: Matt Kuchar ov Dustin Johnson
  • Dustin in the last 3 tournaments, 54th, MC, MC.  Kuchar in the last 5 tournaments, 2nd at the British Open, 16th US Open, 4th the Memorial, 12th Dean & Deluca,  9th Byron Nelson.  Kuchar also the last 4 Canadian Opens, 9th, 6th, 4th, 2nd, so he’s really good at this tournament, he’s been fantastic recently, and something is up with DJ.  HE shot +7 in the final round last week, I don’t think this a tournament that Dustin cares about at all…and Kuchar is a MASSIVE underdog.  +150

  • 27: Hoffman ov Dustin
  • Value play here.  Grabbed this play at +350.

  • 20: Kaymer ov Hatton 2nd round
  • They are in the same group, so they get the same weather...Hatton has been a train wreck for the last month or so...he was awful again today...Kaymer has a chance to make the cut so I see Kaymer playing more focused golf today.

  • 19: Rickie Fowler ov Dustin Johnson 5dimes (British Open) (first round and full tourney)
  • Pretty simple here, Dustin has missed the cut the last two tournaments he’s played in, and it hasn’t been close.  +8 at the Memorial, +4 at the US Open.  He was on an absolute tear, but has been terrible recently.  And at the US Open he struggled to hit the fairways, and those fairways were wider than retired porn stars mouth.  

    Rickie fowler, meanwhile, has been playing great golf, 4 top 10 finishes in 5 of his last events…9th last week at the Scottish open…and Dustin hasn’t played in a month.

  • 19: Sergio Garcia ov Rory McIlroy-Matsuyama ov Rory, Rose ov Rory 5dimes (British Open) (first round and full tourney)
  • Have to have to have to fade Rory.  He’s got the lingering injury, he’s newly married, and he’s still getting used to an equipment change.  All that has lead to his horrible form this year.  Three missed cuts in the last 4 tournaments, including two in a row.  Before the injury he had a slew of top 10 finishes…after his comeback?  Nothing inside the top 15…he even missed the cut at the Irish Open hosted by the Rory McIlroy foundation.  Sergio Garcia this year has one finish outside the top 30.  That’s it.  Seven finishes inside the top 20, already has a win at a major this year so he doesn’t have that added pressure…love this matchup.

    If you really want to go crazy, this week, I see Rory Mcilroy matched up against Matsuyama and Justin Rose.  So if you’re feeling crazy, and you just want to load up against Rory.  If you were so inclined…you could bet all three against Rory.

  • 19: Adam Scott ov Jason Day 5dimes (British Open) (first round and full tourney)
  • Jason Day just hasn’t been himself this year, two straight missed cuts in his last two tournaments, and in fact he only has 4 tournaments this entire year where he finished under par…the last two tournaments he shot +10 at the US Open Open missed cut, and +2 at the Travelers missed cut.  Adam Scott missed the cut at the US Open as well, but still finished 5 shots ahead of Day.  Scott played at the Scottish Open last week where he finished 35th so I like that he’s coming off a European Tour event the week before.  Adam Scott is 4-1 against Day in tournaments they’ve played in together this year, and Scott has better recent finishes at this tournament, a win, 2nd place, 20th, and 23d here the last 4 years.  Day only one top 20 finish ever here.

  • 19: Andy Sullivan ov Tyrell Hatton 5dimes (British Open) (first round and full tourney)
  • Tyrell Hatton was great earlier in the year, but he’s kind of fallen apart recently.  Missed cuts recently at the Scottish Open, Irish Open, Open de France, US Open, 4 in a row.  Over par at the Players, 29th at the RBC Heritage, +14 missed cut at the Masters…he’s been bad.  Andy Sullivan, meanwhile, has pretty good finishes recently.  9th at the Scottish, 20th at the Irish, 13th at the Open de France, made cut at the BMW International Open, 48th at the Masters.  In fact, Sullivan has finished ahead of Hatton in the last 5 tournaments they’ve played in together by an average 6.5 shots.  Hatton finished 5th here last year, but he has 5 missed cuts in row before that.  Sullivan has a 12th and 30th the last 2 British Opens.

  • 19: Francesco Molinari ov Chris Wood 5dimes (British Open) (first round and full tourney)
  • Interesting matchups here, and even though we have to lay some juice with Molinari here, I’m happy to do it.  Chris Wood just has not been very good recently.  Missed cut at the Masters, missed cut at the US Open,  and then he had a WD at the Open de France, and a bad missed cut at the Scottish Open last week…I don’t like how he’s playing right now, and guess what KJ…he’s got one of the two injuries we really focus on…which is it KJ?  Bad wrist.  Molinari missed the cut at the US Open, but he’s been fine other than that this year.  38th at the Open de France, and before the US Open, only 1 missed cut all year, and 9 top 25 finishes.  Molinari 5 straight made cuts at the British Open, all top 40 finishes including a 9th and a 15th so he’s ok a this tournament.

  • 19: Russell Henley ov Bubba Watson 5dimes (British Open) (first round and full tourney)
  • Every week we bet against Bubba Watson…every week he doesn’t let us down.  Shot -9 last week…still finished 44th, and lost his head to head matchup against Ben Martin.  This week?  matched up against Russell Henley who was really good earlier in the year, started to fade a couple months ago, but looks like he may have his mojo back.  Three straight made cuts, 5th last week at the greenbrier.  Henley is 6-1 against Bubba this year in tournaments they’ve played together in.  Bubba only makes the cut 50% of the time at the British Open…never finished inside the top 22 here.  Henley pretty similar history at the British Open, so I’ll happily take 2017 Henley ov 2017 Bubba.

  • 19: Paul Casey ov Brooks Koepka 5dimes (British Open) (first round and full tourney)
  • Koepka won the US Open and hit an insane 91% of Greens in Regulation.  Guess what he’s not going to do at the British Open KJ?  Here’s the big thing I see, and there aren’t any stats…and that’s the point.  He hasn’t played since then.  The three tournaments before that he didn’t have one finish inside the top 30.  I see a big let down after a major win from a guy who caught lightning in a bottle for the US Open.  He didn’t play the British Open last year…I just don’t see how he comes out and plays winning golf, and Paul Casey has been playing solid, consistent golf recently. Since February only one finish outside the top 26, no missed cuts, 6th at the Masters, and 26th at the US Open so he’s been good at majors…I like Paul Casey to play really good golf…I see Koepka struggling.

  • 19: Bryson DeChambeau ov Emiliano Grillo 5dimes (British Open) (first round and full tourney)
  • I didn’t think I’d be betting on DeChambeau this year, especially since he missed 9 cuts in a row at one point this year, but I can’t ignore what he’s done the last 4 weeks.  4 straight made cuts, 26th, 17th, 14th, and a win at the John Deere.  I know they’ve been watered down fields, but in his 7 missed cuts, he was a combined +30, and in the last 4 tournaments he’s been a combined -33.  KJ he’s done something with his swing, or his putting, and I’m going to back him this week against Grillo who’s been a disappointment this year.  Missed the cut at the US Open, +12 at the Masters, 43rd at the Travelers, and last week at the Scottish Open he missed the cut!!!  Last year Grillo finished 12th here, but that was last year when he was playing really good…I love the momentum from DeChambeau and he’s +120 in this matchup!!!

  • 19: Finishing score 275.5 UNDER 5dimes (British Open)
  • To make the cut:

    Fleetwood, Casey, Leishman, Kuchar

    2-1

    Sergio, Fowler, Rahm, Rose, Matsuyama, Adam Scott

    2.5-1

    Zach Johnson, Molinari, Stricker

    2.5-1

    To Miss The Cut

    Dustin, Rory, Jason Day

    46-1

    Shane Lowry, Tyrell Hatton, Chris Wood

    19-1

    Shane Lowry missed cut the last two British Opens.

    Brooks Koepka, Thomas Pieters, Brandt Snedeker

    24-1

  • 11: Jamie Lovemark ov Zach Johnson 5dimes (John Deere Classic)
  • Classic case of who do you like more…the golfer with better recent form, or the golfer with better course history…I’ll take the golfer with better recent form, and that’s Jamie Lovemark.  The last three tournaments they’ve played in together, Zach hasn’t beat Lovemark in any of them head to head.  Zach has one top 25 finish in his last 11 tournaments, and 3 missed cuts in that span.  Lovemark 4 top 25 finishes in his last 11 tournaments.  Zach has really good course history here.  5 top 3 finishes in a row from 2011-2015, but last year he finished 34th, and so did Lovemark.  So I went back and looked at Zachs form coming into the tournaments.  In 2015, he was coming off of several top 5 finishes into this tournament.  2014, only two missed cuts the entire year before this tournament, 2013 he was playing good as well.  2017 Zach isn’t the Zach of old, his game is fading, Lovemark’s is on the upswing…I’ll take Lovemark at +120 in this matchup as the big underdog.

  • 11: Charles Howell ov Ryan Moore 5dimes (John Deere Classic)
  • Ryan Moore the last 4 tournaments he’s played in, The Players, Byron Nelson, Dean & Deluca, and The Memorial is a total of +26.  He was playing really good before that, but he’s been terrible recently.  He won here last year, but he was coming off of made cuts in the US Open, The British, and a 17th at the PGA Championship, so he was playing good.  Howell has no missed cuts this year, has looked solid since he came back, and I’m expecting him to be near the top of the leaderboard in a weak field.

  • 11: Ben Martin ov Bubba Watson 5dimes (John Deere Classic)
  • Betting against Bubba has been a cash cow this season, and I see no reason to get away from it this week.  I go over these stats with Bubba every week, but since I’m betting real money against him I’ll go over them again.  Bubba actually made the cut last week, and still finished 70th.  He has 2 PGA tourneys in 2017 that he’s finished under par, only one since January.  Ben Martin has been playing really solid lately, 7 straight made cuts, last week he finished ahead of Bubba by 7 shots.  Bubba hasn’t played here in 7 years, and when he did he missed the cut.

  • 11: Michael Kim ov Maverick McNeal 5dimes (John Deere Classic)
  • Michael Kim is a professional golfer.  He finished 29th last week, and 35th the week before.  He has one missed cut in the last 8 tournaments.  Maverick McNealy just graduated from college.  Two months ago he was beating other college guys.  He somehow got exemptions to the US and British Opens by winning the prestigious McCormack Medal.  In the US Open, he missed the cut, Michael Kim made the cut here last year, so I’ll take the professional golfer over the college golfer this week.

  • 11: Danny Lee ov Kevin Kisner Bovada (John Deere Classic)
  • Kevin Kisner has a 58th, and a MC the last couple tournaments, and hasn’t been very sharp.  Danny Lee has 3 straight top 25 finishes, and two top 10 finishes in the last 3.  In fact he’s got 4 top 10 finishes in the last 7 tournaments, and no missed cuts in that time.  Both have spotty course history here, so I’ll take the consistent golfer in this matchup.

  • 11: Kevin Streelman ov Ryan Moore Bovada (John Deere Classic)
  • This is a small play because Ryan Moore has a great record at this tournament, and Streelman doesn’t, but Moore has been bad recently.  Two missed cuts and two finishes outside the top 55 the last 4 tournaments.  Streelman has been consistently inside the top 30, and top 20 the last 5 tournaments, so I can’t make this a big play, but I am going to play it small.

  • 11: Fowler ov McIlroy 5dimes (Scottish Open)
  • Fowler won this tourney in 2015, 8th the year before…McIlroy doesn’t play this tourney often, hasn’t played it since 2014 where he finished 14th, no top 10 finishes here ever, and McIlroy is really struggling.  Missed the cut at the Irish Open last week, Missed the cut at the the US Open, 17th at the Travelers, but that was because of a fantastic last round.  He’s got the lingering injury, he’s changed equipment, just got married…a lot going on that seems to be affecting his game.  Fowler has been on fire, 3 top 5 finishes in the last 4 tournaments.

  • 11: Stenson ov McIlroy 5dimes (Scottish Open)
  • We went over McIlroy above, let’s go over Stenson.  For whatever reason, Stenson has been really good in the European tourneys, and not the PGA tourneys.  In his 5 european tourneys, he has 4 top 10 finishes.  In the US he has 4 missed cuts in the last 5 tournaments.  I don’t know if you knew this or not KJ, but the Scottish Open is a European tournament.  Guess what…Stenson is the underdog.  He’s plus money!!!

  • 11: Hao-Tong Li ov Graeme McDowell 5dimes (Scottish Open)
  • Something continues to be wrong with McDowell.  Not sure if it's an injury or if it's something wrong with his swing, but he was terrible again today, and I'm going to fade him tomorrow.

  • 04: Charles Howell ov Bubba Watson 5Dimes (Greenbriar) 1st round and full tourney
  • Bubba has good course history here, Charles Howell doesn’t…I don’t care.  All year I keep getting told that “Bubba’s gonna play good this week…he loves this course!!!”  And then he goes out and misses the cut.  I feel like I go over his stats this year every week, but in regular PGA events this year, 7 missed cuts, only one top 25 finish, 3 missed cuts out of his last 4 tourneys.  Charles Howell came out pretty rusty off his break with the rib injury, oh wait he finished second last week.  No missed cuts this year for Howell.

    Kevin Streelman ov Russell Henley

  • 04: Kevin Streelman ov Russell Henley 5Dimes (Greenbriar) 1st round and full tourney
  • Streelman has been really really good starting with the Dean and Deluca.  Four straight top 18 finishes, including the Quicken Loans last week where he finished 7 shots ahead of Henley.  Henley won the Shell Houston Open, and then finished 11th at the Masters, and since then no top 25 finishes, and 3 missed cuts.  I see Streelman on a hot streak, and Henley in a bit of a funk.

  • 04: Grayson Murray ov Trey Mullinex 5Dimes (Greenbriar) 1st round and full tourney
  • Grayson Murray won a bet last week, and that’s even with him blowing up in the last round with a +11 performance.  Other than that one round he’s been really good.  Hasn’t missed a cut since March, 4 top 35 finishes, so he’s been fairly consistent.  Mullinex has been all over the board, 46th last week, missed cut at the travelers…9th at the US Open…before that 5 missed cuts out of 6 tournaments.  If Murray just shoots even par at the Quicken loans that gives him 5 straight top 35 finishes…I’ll take the consistent golfer in this matchup.

  • 04: Ricky Barnes ov Jonas Blixt 5Dimes (Greenbriar) 1st round and full tourney
  • We cashed a bet with Ricky Barnes last week, let’s do it again.  Barnes 1 missed cut the last 10 tournaments, the last 5 tournaments 4 top 35’s, 3 of those top 25 finishes.  Blixt the last 5 tournaments, two missed cuts and a 62nd…only one top 20 finish, but the big thing for me is that in the last 5 tournaments they’ve played in together, Barnes has finished ahead of Blixt in 4 of those…the other tournament they finished tied together.

  • 04: Nick Taylor ov Ted Potter Jr. 5Dimes (Greenbriar) 1st round and full tourney
  • Look up Ted Potter’s Pga tournament results this year.  There’s only one PGA tournament he’s even played in this year, the US Open which he missed the cut.  He’s been on the web.com tour where he’s been very hit or miss…last week he missed the cut at the vaunted Nashville Open.  Nick Taylor has at least been playing with PGA tour competition.  Nick Taylor has 8 made cuts in the last 9 tournaments, 29th last week, 4 top 30 finishes in the last 8 tournaments.  Taylor is just in a better class than Potter.

  • 04: Brandon Hagy ov Camilo Villegas 5Dimes (Greenbriar) 1st round and full tourney
  • Pretty bad matchup here…both guys are not fantastic, but in the last 5 tournaments, Villegas has 3 missed cuts, a WD and a 63rd.  Hagy in is last 5 tourneys only has 2 made cuts, but here’s what I like about his play.  Here are the last few tournaments they’ve played in together.  Quicken Loans, Hagy made the cut Villegas didn’t.  FedEx St Jude, Hagy finished 4 strokes ahead of Villegas.  Dean and Deluca Villegas WD after a horrific first round, Wells Fargo Hagy a 9 stroke win over Villegas.  In fact, in 2017 in 11 of the PGA tournaments they’ve played in together, Hagy has finished ahead of Villegas in 9 of those tournaments.

  • 04: Keegan Bradley ov Bubba Watson Bovada (Greenbriar)
  • We went over Bubba above.  Keegan made the cut at the US Open, won the CVS Health Charity Classic, then finished 8th at the Travelers, and 5th at the Quicken Loans.  In fact, of the 7 tournaments they’ve played in together in 2017 Keegan has finished ahead or tied with Bubba in 6 of them.

- June

  • 28: David Lingmerth ov Tony Finau 5Dimes (Quicken Loans)
  • Lingmerth has been really good since the Zurich, and I feel has been flying under the radar.  26th at the Travelers, 21st at the US Open, 15th at the Memorial, 12th at the Dean Deluca, 18th at the Wells Fargo.  Finau had a good showing last week, but he’s been shaky.  Over par at the Memorial, Even par at the Dean Deluca, Missed cut at the Players…mixed in there is a 13th at the Byron Nelson…I love the consistency of Lingmerth, and the best part about this play is that Lingmerth is a big underdog.  Plus Money.

  • 28: Jason Kokrak ov Adam Hadwin 5Dimes (Quicken Loans)
  • Hadwin has been struggling recently…we cashed a bet fading him last week, and I’m going to do it again this week.  The last three tournaments both these guys have played in were the Travelers, the US Open, and the Memorial.  Kokrak has finished ahead of Hadwin in all of those.  Kokrak’s combined score in those tournaments is +1…Hadwins is +18.  Two guys moving in the complete opposite direction.  Kokrak was terrible the early part of the year, and is starting to come on…Hadwin was really good early, but is fading fast.

  • 28: Ben Martin ov Bryson Dechambeau 5Dimes (Quicken Loans)
  • I know Dechamblows won his matchup last week, but he finished 26th last week, and that was the outlier.  Before that 8 straight made cuts.  Martin coming off of 5 straight made cuts.  I’ll take the golfer consistently making the cut when they’re playing on a course that nobody is used to.

  • 28: Ryan Brehm ov Patton Kizzire 5Dimes (Quicken Loans)
  • Kizzire has played in 12 tourneys this year, 7 missed cuts, only 1 finish inside the top 40.  Ryan Brehm has only 1 missed cuts in 11 tourneys this year.  Last two tournaments they played in together Brehm has finished ahead of Kizzire.  Kizzire 2 missed cuts in the last 3 tournaments, 3 missed cuts out of the last 5…Brehm 4 straight made cuts.

  • 28: Ricky Barnes ov Jonas Blixt 5Dimes (Quicken Loans)
  • Only 1 missed cut in the last 9 tournaments, 4 top 35 finishes in that span, and 3 of those top 35 finishes have been in the last 4 weeks.  The last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together Barnes has finished ahead of Blixt.

  • 28: Danny Lee ov JB Holmes BOVADA (Quicken Loans)
  • JB Holmes randomly picks tournaments to play good at, and he picked the US Open which suited his game where he finished 12th…Before that 52nd, 2 missed cuts, nothing else inside the top 35 since early March.  Danny Lee 5 straight made cuts, 3rd last week, he’s also got a 6th, and a 5th in those 5 tournaments.

  • 28: David Lingmerth ov Russell Henley BOVADA (Quicken Loans)
  • Henley was really good early, but since his win at the Shell Houston Open, he’s gotten worse.  Finished 27th at the US Open, but before that 2 missed cuts, 35th at the Players.  We went over David Lingmerth above…playing really good recently.

  • 28: Marc Leishman Top Australian Even BOVADA (Quicken Loans)
  • Others in the group...

    Matt Jones +500, Aaron Badly +700, Cameron Percy, Geoof Ogilvy, Greg Chalmers, Rod Sampling, Curtis Luck

  • 28: David Lingmerth +110 Top European BOVADA (Quicken Loans)
  • 27: Hun-An, Keegan, C. Howell III, Lingmerth, Schniederjans, Steele
  • 27: Finau, Fowler, Hadwin, Howell III, Kokrak, Stanley
  • 27: Fowler, Huh, Lingmerth, Murray, Steele, Taylor
  • 27: Brehm, Cauley, Chappell, Reed, Summerhays, Tway
  • 21: Jordan Spieth ov Rory McIlroy 5dimes (The Travelers)
  • I don’t have a lot of stats, but I do like this play.  There were lots of red flags last week about Rory, and a lot of people ignored them, but the fact is he hasn’t played much recently, he didn’t play much at the US Open cause he horrifically missed the cut, he’s got new equipment, he’s got the injury that could be lingering…Spieth at least made the cut at the US Open, a couple top 13 finishes before that.  Spieth in good form…Rory nowhere near good form.

  • 21: Marc Leishman ov Bubba Watson 5dimes (The Travelers)
  • Not sure what people are seeing in Bubba Watson.  I know he likes this tournament, but I’m still fading him.  I was told last week that fading him was a bad idea, and it wasn’t.  A website I really respect, and really like has Bubba as one of their picks to win, and I can’t figure it out.  He still only has 1 decent finish at a real tournament this year, that was 6th at the Memorial.  He comes off that finish into the US Open with huge fairways that should’ve set up nice for him, and he misses the cut.  Take out the Zurich, and Match Play, and he has 6 MC’s in the last 9 tournaments.  Leishman has been playing really good recently, a 27th at the US Open, 15th, 34th, and 13th before that.  Bubba good history at this tournament, but Leishman does as well…finished 9th here last year.

  • 21: Danny Lee ov Ryan Palmer 5dimes (The Travelers)
  • Danny Lee only 2 missed cuts since February, he’s got 4 straight made cuts, two of those finishes were 5th, and 6th, Danny Lee also has 3 straight made cuts at this tournament.  Ryan Palmer not playing great the last month, his finishes the last 4 tournaments have gotten worse every time, 27th, 70th, 80th, missed cut.  Palmer has played here 3 times….2 missed cuts.

  • 21: Sung Kang ov Smylie Kaufman 5dimes (The Travelers)
  • Smylie Kaufman started to show signs that he was a decent golfer earlier this year.  Seven missed cuts, and then he got on a little bit of a roll when he finished 5th at the Wells Fargo, 12th at the Players, and 35th at the Byron Nelson.  Since then…two straight missed cuts, not even close to the cut line, and he missed the cut here last year.  Sung Kang no missed cuts at PGA events since the Valspar, he made the cut here last year, and statistically he’s just way better than Kaufman this year.  Fun Fact:  Sung Kang has more than triple the FedEx Cup points than Kaufman does.

  • 21: Brian Stuard ov Bryson DeChambeau 5dimes (The Travelers)
  • They should just call him DeChamBLOWS!!!!  He hasn’t made a cut since the first week of April.  Brian Stuard…has made a cut since the first week of April.  Besides the US Open, Stuard has made the cut in 5 out of the previous tournaments.  Not a lot needs to be said here.

  • 21: David Lingmerth ov Adam Hadwin 5dimes (The Travelers)
  • Not a huge play, but Lingmerth is in much better form than Hadwin right now.  Lingmerth has 4 top 21 finishes in the last 5 tournaments…5 straight made cuts.  Hadwin made the cut last week, but in his last 5 tournaments, his best finish is 30th.  He started the year strong, but it looks like he’s fading, and Lingmerth is coming on.  Lingmerth has played here twice…2 made cuts.  Hadwin has played here twice…2 missed cuts.

  • 21: Grayson Murray ov Hudson Swafford 5dimes (The Travelers)
  • I’ll just cut to the chase here.  Murray 8 straight made cuts, 3 straight top 35 finishes , and regardless of what Murray says on twitter he’s just the better golfer here.  Swafford has 4 straight missed cuts, and the last 4 tournaments they’ve played in together, Murray has finished ahead of Swafford.  Way ahead.  In those 4 tournaments, Murray’s combined score is Even par…Swaffords combined score is +20.

  • 21: Kevin Tway ov Patrick Rogers -1/2 first round
  • Rogers has not been good this year.  Tway has been pretty solid, and in the last 6 tournaments they've played in, Tway has had a better first round in 5 of those.

  • 20: Hun-An, Grillo, Lovemark, McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Snedeker
  • 20: Hadwin, Hoffman, Laird, Reavie, Speith, Thomas
  • 20: Casey, Hoffman, Laird, Reed, Snedeker, Taylor
  • 16: Charl Schwarzel ov Henrik Stenson 2nd round (US Open)
  • Stenson very, very shaky today.  Shot +2 and that was with holing out from 140 yards for Eagle.  Schwartzel has played really good the last 2 tournaments...I really liked him pre-tourney, and wanted to bet on him but didn't find the full tourney matchups I liked with him, but I really like him to keep it steady tomorrow, make a move forward, and I'm not sure Stenson is going to be able to put together a solid 18 holes tomorrow.

  • 14: Speith, Day, Kuchar, Walker, Westwood, Perez
  • 14: Rahm, Rose, Dufner, Kuchar, Hadwin, Molinari
  • 14: Scott, Rahm, Grace, Oosthuizen, Reed, Schwartzel
  • 14: Garcia, Rose, Dufner, Kuchar, Schwartzel, Molinari,
  • 13: Dustin Johnson ov Rory McIlroy 5dimes (US Open) first round and full tourney
  • Not a whole lot of stats in this pick.  I’m just worried about Rory and his back/rib injury.  Last time he played was at The Players a month ago and the injury flared up…I’m not convinced he’s going to be 100% the whole tournament, and if he hits the ball in the fescue and has to swing really hard to get the ball out of there, it’s going to put a ton of torque on that injury.  I’m not worried about Dustin’s last tournament where he missed the cut…I think he’s going to come out really motivated to win this major considering what happened at the Masters.

  • 13: Adam Scott ov Hideki Matsuyama 5dimes (US Open) first round and full tourney
  • Really like the way Scott is playing right now.  Tenth last wee at St Jude, 31st at the Memorial, 6th at the Players, and I like that Scott has been consistent coming into a tournament on a course they haven’t played on.  Matsuyama started off on fire at the beginning of the year, but has really cooled off, so when you look at his season stats, they are a little deceiving.  One top 20 finish since February, and in his last 2 tournaments, he only has one round under 70.  Last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Adam Scott has finished ahead of Hideki.

  • 13: (My boyfriend) Francesco Molinari ov Billy Horschel 5dimes (US Open) first round and full tourney
  • Molinari is just so consistent, no matter what course they are on.  Five straight top 25 finishes including a 6th and a second.  Very accurate off the tee…not super long, but still averaging over 290 yards.  Horschel is super inconsistent.  In his last 8 tournaments he has 5 missed cuts, a 34th, a 4th and a win.  So you never know what you’re going to get from him, so I’ll happily bet against him on a new course that he hasn’t played before.

  • 13: Jason Dufner ov Daniel Berger 5dimes (US Open) first round and full tourney
  • I think Dufner has a chance to compete for a top 10 finish this week.  He’s coming off a win at the Memorial where he looked fantastic.  This year he has 10 top 25 finishes, so he’s been consistent on lots of different courses.  Dufner drives is more accurate than Berger which is important, but one of the reasons I think we’re getting this matchup is because Berger won last week, but that’s a course and a tournament he loves.  I’m not sure his game will translate to a course he’s not used to.  Berger only has 4 top 25 finishes in 2017, and take away the St Jude Classic that he loves, he really doesn’t have a great finish since early April at the Shell Houston Open.

  • 13: Martin Kaymer ov Bubba Watson 5dimes (US Open) first round and full tourney
  • Kayaker is always underrated, and here we go again with Kaymer as the underdog against Bubba Watson.  Kaymer and Bubba have played in 4 tournaments together this year, and Kaymer has finished ahead of Bubba in all 4 tournaments.  Bubba had a good showing at The Memorial where he finished 6th, but I think that’s the outlier.  In his previous 7 tournaments, he had 5 missed cuts or withdraws…best finish 34th.  Also, in the last 6 US Opens, Bubba has 3 missed cuts, and his best finish is 32nd.  Kaymer has 3 top 15 finishes at US Opens, including a win.

  • 13: Russell Knox ov Jim Furyk 5dimes (US Open) first round and full tourney
  • I’ve been against Jim Furyk, and I’ll happily take this matchup with Knox ov Furyk.  Russell has been a disappointment this year, but Furyk has 6 straight missed cuts, and at a course that plays at 7700 yards, Furyk may be accurate off the tee but he’s 205th in driving distance.  He drives it 268 yards.  That’s not going to work out.  Knox has made the cut 3 out of the last 4 tournaments.

  • 13: Top Argentinian, Top Korean bovada (US Open)
  • Top Argentinian

    Emiliano Grillo -200

    I know its a lot of juice, but the other options are Angel Cabrera, and Andres Romero.  Grills 11 straight made cuts, stats are good for this tournament, etc.

    Top Korean 

    Buenos Hun An +140  Three straight top 25 finishes, 2 top 10 finishes in the last month.

    The others in this category are Si Woo Kim who got his win a month ago, and since then has a missed cut and a withdraw, he sucks.  Jeunghun Wang who hasn’t done shit on the Pga tour, and Kim Meen-Whee who has 5 missed cuts in the last 7 tourneys.

  • 13: Si Woo Kim to miss the cut -105 5dimes (US Open)
  • As mentioned above, since his win, a MC and a WD.

  • 13: Make the cut parlays 5dimes (US Open)
  • Lower


    I didn't even think of this one until someone sent it to me on twitter, but I love the under here.  The greens aren't too difficult, and while the fescue is high, the fairways are very wide.  In a field this talented, there are going to be some guys that hit the fairways, get a hot putter, and get it to under -7.  There might be some rain which will firm up the greens, and make approach shots easier, so I think -7 is well within reach.

  • 07: Etulain, Fowler, Michelson, Murray, Poston, Poulter
  • Well...I am trying to see how I could get Fowler into a lineup with another top tier golfer...let's see how this unravels.

  • 07: Berger, Gay, Poston, Poulter, Scott, Uihlein
  • 07: Chappell, McDowell, Yul-Noh, Scott, Tway, Uihlein
  • 07: Cabrera-Bello, Holmes, Koepka, Poston, Summerhays, Stanley
  • 07: Peter Uihlein ov JB Holmes 5dimes (St Jude)
  • 07: Charl Schwarzer ov Kevin Chappell 5dimes (St Jude)
  • 07: JT Poston ov Hudson Swafford 5dimes (St Jude)
  • 07: Scott Brown ov Jim Furyk 5dimes (St Jude)
  • 07: Charl Schwarzel top South African Bovada (St Jude)
  • Schwartzel, Gossen, Van Aswegen, Sabatini, Els

- May

  • 30: Buenos Hun an ov Kevin Chappell 5dimes (The Memorial)
  • I get the golfer with momentum and the better finish here last year.  Hun An finished 11th at this tournament last year, and coming into the tournament, he’s got two top 10 finishes and a 24th.  Chappell coming off a 35th at the Players, and before that he won at the Valero, and had a 7th at the Masters, but before that nothing inside the top 40.  So I went back and looked at his previous years, and in 2016 he played great at the Valero (4th place), 2nd at The Players…48th at the Memorial.  2015 49th at The Memorial…2014 Missed Cut at The Memorial.  So I just think he doesn’t translate too well to this course despite playing good at a few tournaments recently.

    tee times

    Hun an- 7:30  Chappell-8:48

  • 30: Matt Kuchar ov Rickie Fowler 5dimes (The Memorial)
  • This is Fowlers last tournament before the US Open, so I’m sure he wants to play really good here, but the fact is Fowler has been bad at this tournament the last 3 years.  He missed the cut the last 3 years.  In 2014 he wasn’t playing great coming into the Memorial, and he missed the cut.  In 2015 he was coming off a win and a 9th place finish…and he missed the cut.  In 2016 he was coming off a 4th and a missed cut…and he missed the cut at The Memorial.  It just seems like no matter what form Fowler is in, he doesn’t play good here.  This year he missed the cut at the Zurich with his partner, and then shot +7 at The Players and finished 60th.  So he’s not coming in on fire.  Meanwhile, Matt Kuchar in the last 9 tournaments here has 8 top 15 finishes, 6 of those top 10 finishes, 4 of those were top 5 finishes, and one of those was a win.  Last year, 4th place here.  Kuchar is coming off of a 12th, and a 9th place finish so he’s in good form right now.

    tee times

    Kuchar-12:54  Fowler-1:16

  • 30: Patrick Reed ov Justin Thomas 5dimes (The Memorial)
  • Patrick Reed seems to have broken out of his funk, especially with the putter.  He really struggled in the beginning of the year, and even went on a 3 tournament missed cut streak.  However, since the Zurich he’s got a 12th at the Wells Fargo, a 22nd at The Players, and a 20th at the Byron Nelson.  Justin Thomas on the other hand, still struggling.  Shot +7 at The Players, MDF, Only top 20 finish since Hawaii was at the Mexio Championship.  Also, Justin Thomas 2 straight missed cuts at this tournament.  We’ve been fading Justin Thomas a lot this year…I’m going to keep fading.

    tee times

    Patrick Reed-8:04  Justin Thomas-8:26

  • 30: Kevin Tway ov Ryan Moore 5dimes (The Memorial)
  • Kevin Tway keeps winning bets for us, so I’m going to keep riding him.  Not a huge play, but I love the momentum Kevin Tway has compared to Ryan Moore.  3rd, 3rd, 5th, 20th, 18th his last 5 tournaments for Tway.  Ryan Moore finished 18th at the Valero, and then has kind of fallen off.  53rd, missed cut, 67th his last 3 tournaments.  At the Byron Nelson and Dean & Deluca combined, Ryan Moore shot +14…Tway shot -6.  The reason I’m not making this a big play is because Tway hasn’t played here before, and Moore has played here 11 times.  Decent history here, but only 48th place last year.

    tee times

    Kevin Tway-8:59  Moore-8:04

  • 30: Ross Fisher ov Bubba Watson 5dimes (The Memorial)
  • How can you not bet against Bubba right now?  Since February, the only tournament he’s finished under par has been the Zurich…where he had a partner.  Last tourney he played in, he Missed the cut bad at the Players, and last year here he played this tournament he finished 65th here, and he was playing a lot better last year coming into the Memorial.  Ross Fisher missed the cut at The Players as well, but still finished ahead of Bubba, and last 3 tourneys on the European tour he’s been in the top 10 including 9th last week at the BMW.  Fisher hasn’t played here, but I’m not too worried about that.

    tee times

    Fisher-7:30  Bubba-8:15

  • 30: Smylie Kaufman ov Cameron Smith 5dimes (The Memorial)
  • I can’t believe we bet against Kaufman earlier this year, and now I’m excited about betting on him, but the results are pretty obvious.  Cameron Smith and his partner won the Zurich, and since then he’s missed the cut two times in a row by shooting +4 at The Players, and +5 at The Dean and Deluca.  Smylie had a bunch of missed cuts, but has really turned it around recently.  35th at the Byron Nelson, 12th at the players, 5th at the Wells Fargo.  Last year at this tournament, Kaufman finished 20th.  Cameron Smith has played here once and missed the cut.

    tee times

    Smylie- 1:05  Cameron Smith-12:43

  • 30: Nick Taylor ov Russell Knox 5dimes (The Memorial)
  • Odd play here as I’m going to support Nick Taylor here even though he’s played here once and he missed the cut.  But that was back in 2015, and Nick Taylor wasn’t playing good coming into that tournament.  Lots of missed cuts, and finishes outside the top 15.  He didn’t play here last year, but right around this time of the season he was playing better than the previous year, and this year he’s been really good.  Going back to the Shell Houston Open he hasn’t missed the cut, and in those 6 tournaments, 4 of those finishes were top 10’s.  He struggled a bit last week at the Dean and Deluca but still made the cut.  Now let’s look at Russell Knox, and it’s hard to explain whats happened to him.  Since February, he’s played in 7 PGA tournaments, 5 missed cuts, and a 70th place finish.  Last year he was playing good coming into this tournament, and he still only finished 64th.

    tee times

    Nick Taylor-7:53  Knox-12:43

  • 30: Billy Hurley III ov Martin Laird 5dimes (The Memorial)
  • Martin Laird has started to slip recently, and if you look at the last few years, Martin Laird doesn’t play good at the tournament this time of year.  Lot of missed cuts and finishes outside the top 50.  In 2015, in May he started a run of 4 tournaments with 2 missed cuts and finishes outside the top 40.  In 2016, starting in May he started a run of 4 tournaments with 3 missed cuts and a 65th.  In 2017, here we go…starting in May, already two missed cuts and a 42nd, and last 2 times Laird has played here he’s missed the cut.  Hurley on the other hand hasn’t missed the cut since the Masters, and while hasn’t been lights out, he’s finished ahead of Laird in the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in, and the last time Hurley played here was 2014, and he made the cut and finished 37th.

    tee times

    Laird-12:21  Hurley-1:27

  • 30: Emiliano Grillo ov Charl Schwartzel 5dimes (The Memorial)
  • 30: Beyong-Hun An, Fowler, Hadwin, Harman, Matsuyama, Schniederjans
  • 30: CInk, Finau, Grillo, Kisner, Mickelson, Rahm
  • 30: Adam Scott, J. Day, Dufner, Cabrera-Bello, Byeong-Hun An
  • 30: Matsuyama, Mickelson, O'Hair, Reed, Adm Scott, Nick Taylor
  • 24: Finau, Laird, Palmer, Perez, Rahm, Sun Kang
  • 24: Garcia, Kang, Kuchar, Poston, Stricker, Tway
  • 24: Dufner, Kisner, McDowell, Michelson, Perez, Nick Taylor
  • 24: Cauley, Dufner, Grillo, Hadwin, Kang, Palmer
  • 24: Jon Rahm ov Jordan Spieth 5dimes (Dean & Deluca)
  • For the last two tournaments, Spieth has not been sharp.  Two straight missed cuts, and when I watch him it just looks like he’s pressing really hard, and his putting has fallen off.  He can get frustrated when he’s not playing great, and I don’t think he’s playing good right now.  I know he won here last year, and he has good course history, but he was in good form coming into the tournament last year, and this year he’s coming in with 2 missed cuts, and no top 10 finishes since February.  Rahm had a terrible third round at The Players, but other than that he’s just been better than Spieth.  In the last couple months, the Masters is the only tourney where Spieth finished ahead of Rahm, and that was when Rahm blew up on the last hole. 

    I’m making an extra first round play on this as well because Rahm has the early tee time on Thursday, and Spieth will have to deal with more wind in his round.

  • 24: Kevin Tway ov Si woo Kim 5dimes (Dean & Deluca)
  • I can’t make this a big play because Tway has the last tee time on Thursday, but I don’t believe for a second Si Woo Kim is going to play good consistently. I know he won his last tourney, but I think this is a perfect let down tourney.  He’s got the back issues, he got his win for the year…last year when he won a tournament, he turned around and missed the cut the next tourney he played in.  Wouldn’t surprise me if the same thing happens here.  Tway has been great, 4 straight top 20 finishes, and I like the consistent Kevin Tway.  As for Mr. Kim…I just don’t SEEEE it.  He doesn’t WOOOO me this week.

  • 24: Graeme McDowell ov Wesley Bryan 5dimes (Dean & Deluca)
  • We keep making money off McDowell, and I’m not going to stop betting him.  Only missed cut this year was the Puerto Rico tourney, and last week he didn’t have a good finishing place, but that was because he had a terrible last round, as every big name did it seemed like.  Six top 30 finishes in the last 8 tournaments.  Wesley Bryan was good early in the year, but he got the win at the RBC Heritage, and has not been good since.  Two straight missed cuts, and in those tournaments he doesn’t have one round under 72.  I’ll take McDowell ov Bryan full tourney and first round.

  • 24: Michael Kim ov Harris English 5dimes (Dean & Deluca)
  • Harris English has pretty good history at this course, but he has been atrocious recently.  It almost looks like he’s dealing with an injury of some sort.  If you look at his results, start at the Arnold Palmer, and he has no tournaments at par or under.  His last 3 tournaments he’s a combined +27.  For Michael Kim, only 2 missed cuts the last 7 tournaments, 2 straight made cuts, and the last 4 tournaments they’ve played in together, Michael Kim has finished ahead of English.

  • 24: Sung Kang ov Ollie Shenanigans 5dimes (Dean & Deluca)
  • I just don’t think Ollie is very good.  Sung Kang has 5 straight top 30 finishes, 4 of those finishes are top 20 finishes, so he’s been consistent.  He’s played this tournament twice, Ollie has never played here, and Ollie has gotten worse each of the last 3 tournaments.  Barely made the cut last week, and we cashed a bet against him last week, and I love getting even odds in the matchup.

  • 24: Spieth ov Sergio 4th round 5dimes (Dean & Deluca)
  • 17: D.Johnson, An, Poulter, Moore, Poston, Blaum
  • 17: Koepka, Kuchar, Tway, Moore, Snedeker, Poston
  • 17: Oosthuizen, Dufner, Hoffman, Leishman, Spaun, Holmes
  • 17: Kevin Tway ov Ollie Shenanigans 5dimes (Byron Nelson)
  • I never thought I’d use this phrase, but… “Kevin Tway is playing some of the best golf in the world right now in the last month”.  5th, 3rd, 3rd the last month.  Only one missed cut the last 7 tournaments.  Shenanigans has been good recently, but not great.  3rd at the RBC, 18th at Valero, but other than that nothing inside the top 30 since February.  The last 2 tournaments they’ve played in together, Tway has finished ahead of him by an average of over 6 shots.

  • 17: Brooks Koepka ov Jason Day 5dimes (Byron Nelson)
  • Going to keep riding Brooks Kopeka.  Should’ve had the outright win over Stenson last week, but he double bogeyed the last hole of the day to get a push, but he still looks great.  Since he got back on track, he has a 9th, 11th, 2nd, 5th, and 16th.  Jason Day still isn’t back to his winning form as he blew up on Sunday giving him a 60th place finish, and that makes 7 straight tournaments for him with no finishes inside the top 20.

  • 17: Billy Hurley III ov Billy Horschel 5dimes (Byron Nelson)
  • Horschel 4 straight missed cuts, and a 55th place finish the last 5 tournaments.  Has one tournament under par since February.  Billy Hurley has been really good recently.  Hasn’t missed a cut since the Masters, 4 straight made cuts, including a 41st last week, 8th at the Wells Fargo, 37th at Valero, and 22nd at the RBC.  I just want the golfer with the momentum against the struggling golfer.

  • 17: John Huh ov Scott Piercy 5dimes (Byron Nelson)
  • Piercy has been AWFUL lately.  His last 4 tournaments (The Players, Valero, Masters, Valspar), his combined score is +35.  John Huh the last 4 tournaments (The Players, Valero, RBC, Shell Houston Open) his combined score is -2.  Not surprisingly, the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, John Huh has finished ahead of Piercy by an average of 12 shots.

  • 17: Chad Campbell ov Bryson DeChambeau 5dimes (Byron Nelson)
  • This is a strange pick, and here’s why.  Listen to this stat.  3 straight missed cuts, 4 missed cuts out of the last 6 tournaments, no top 10’s this year.  That’s Chad Campbell…the guy I’m betting ON!!!!  Dechambeau 4 straight missed cuts, only top 10 finish was in Puerto Rico.  But here’s the thing about Chad Campbell, and this will blow your mind.  Campbell and DeChambeau have played in 10 tournament together this year.  Campbell has finished ahead of Dechambeau in all 10 of those tournaments!!!!!

  • 17: Brooks Koepka ov Louis Oosthuizen Bovada (Byron Nelson)
  • Louis played great last week, and he's been a made cut machine, but Koepka has been consistently at the top of the scoreboard since he got his head on straight.  Louis has terrible track record here with 2 MC's and a WD in the last 4 years.  Koepka 2nd here last year, 16th the year before.

  • 17: JT Poston ov Zac Blair 1st round 5dimes (Byron Nelson)
  • 17: Billy Hurly ov Robert Streb 1st round 5dimes (Byron Nelson)
  • 17: Billy Hurley ov Robert Streb 2nd round 5dimes (Byron Nelson)
  • 10: Marc Leishman ov James Hahn -1/2 1st ROUND 5dimes (The Players
  • Leishman better first round results recently than Hahn.  He's been solid.

  • 09: Dustin Johnson ov Rory McIlroy 5dimes (The Players)
  • First, first, first, second.  That’s Dustin’s last 4 finishes.  McIlroy has been good with 3 top 7’s out of the last 4 tournaments…but it ain’t first, first, first, second.  DJ doesn’t have amazing course history here, but I don’t care.  He’s playing the best golf of anyone right now…it’s getting Tiger-in-his-prime-esque.  

  • 09: Jon Rahm ov Jason Day 5dimes (The Players)
  • Jon Rahm you can argue is the second best golfer right now on the planet.  His last 5 finishes are 4th, 27th, 10th, 2nd, and 3rd.  Jason Day USED to be an elite golfer, but he isn’t playing like one now.  Day has one top 5 finish is 2017.  He’s been dealing with his Mom having cancer, and it’s obviously affected his game.  We lost this exact bet at the Masters when Rahm triple bogeyed his last hole of the tourney causing us to lose this bet by one stroke.  We get our revenge this week.

  • 09: Rickie Fowler ov Hideki Matsuyama 5dimes (The Players)
  • Before the Zurich, 6 straight tournaments with top 16 finishes, including a win and 3 top 4 finishes.  Fowler is playing better than he’s ever played right now, and he looks mature, and so does his game.  I think he is on the verge of being considered one of the elite golfers on tour, and he’s looks motivated this year (Spring Break 2017 excluded).  Matsuyama since his win at the Waste Management doesn’t have any top 10 finishes in his last 6 tournaments.  In those 6 tournaments, 5 finishes have been outside the top 25.  He’s just not nearly as sharp as Fowler is right now.

  • 09: Brooks Koepka ov Henrik Stenson
  • Koepka has been red hot since his session with his coach from Florida State.  Before that, he was fade bait, and missed cut material, but now he’s one of the best on tour over the last two months.  Even paired with his brother Chase Koepka, he finished 5th at the Zurich.  Before that, second, 11th, 9th going back to that meeting with his coach.  Stenson on the other hand?  Still can’t putt. One made cut in the last 6 tournaments.  Unbelievable how bad he’s been.  I see no reason why that should change this week.

  • 09: Justin Rose ov Henrik Stenson
  • Justin Rose has one missed cut this year.  That was at the Zurich classic when he had a partner.  His partner…was Henrik Stenson.

  • 09: Graham Delaet ov Jim Furyk 5dimes (The Players)
  • Furyk has one tourney under par in 2017.  Let that sink in.  One tourney under par this year.  And that was back in february.  Missed the cut the last 3 tournaments, and just isn’t playing well.  Deleat only has one round over par in 2017, and has looked solid the last two tournaments.  Besides missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer, and Puerto Rico, he has 6 top 25 finishes. 

  • 09: Graeme McDowell ov Bubba Watson 5dimes (The Players)
  • Here we go again with the books not respecting McDowell, and I’ll happily support him here.  Let’s look at Bubba’s finishes this year, except I’m going to take out the wonky tournaments, such as the Zurich where he and his partner finished 5th, and The match play where he finished 9th.  No finishes inside the top 25, Missed cut at masters, 34th at Arnold palmer, missed cut at valspar, 38th in Mexico, WD at Genesis, and Missed cut at Waste Management.  He’s been struggling this year.  McDowell on the other had, has a missed cut in Puerto Rico (whatever), and then only one finish outside the top 30, and no other missed cuts in 2017.  He’s steady, and consistent, coming off a nice week last week at the Wells Fargo.

  • 09: Sung Kang ov Luke Donald
  • Take out the RBC Heritage where Luke randomly plays good every year, and his results have sucked recently.  3 missed cuts out of the last 4 tourneys, and the tourney he did make the cut he finished 69th.  Sung Kang on the other hand has been playing great recently.  Take out the Zurich, he has 3 straight top 11 finishes, 6 out of 7 made cuts, and has been better than Luke in the last 2 tourneys they’ve played in together, minus the RBC.

  • 09: Rickie Fowler ov Justin Thomas BOVADA (The Players)
  • Top Swedish player

    Stenson -120

    Alex Noren +250

    David Lingmerth +500

    Jonas Blixt +600



    I’m going to play Alex Noren at +250, and Lingmerth at +500.  If you would play both at $100, if Noren wins you would profit $150, and if Lingmerth wins you would profit $400.  Noren only one missed cut in 2017, and that was the Masters, and Lingmerth 2 straight made cuts, including a solid 18th place finish last week at the Wells Fargo.  Like we said about Stenson, who’s the favorite here, he can’t even make cuts recently.  Really like these plus money plays.

  • 09: Fowler, Hatton,Molinari, Perez, Rahm, Westwood
  • 09: Hadwin, Holmes, D. Johnson, McDowell, Noren, Speith
  • 09: Day, Hadwin, D. Johnson, Kaymer, McDowell, Walker
  • 09: Garcia, Hoffman, Laird, McIlroy, Steele, Westwood
  • 03: Wesley Bryan ov Patrick Reed (Wells Fargo) 5dimes
  • Pretty easy bet here.  Before the partner BS tourney last week, Reed had missed the cut three straight tourneys.  Wesley Bryan has a win before last week, 7 straight cuts, and 4 out of the last 6 tournaments are top 7 finishes.

  • 03: Kevin Tway ov Rafa Cabrera Bello (Wells Fargo) 5dimes
  • Somethings not right with Cabrera Bello.  I don’t know if it’s an injury or what.  He had a bad back earlier this year, then a wrist I think…  Kevin Tway has two straight third place finishes, and a 32nd before that.  Cabrera Bello has three straight missed cuts.

  • 03: Graeme McDowell ov Kevin Na (Wells Fargo) 5dimes
  • I don’t know why the books don’t respect McDowell, but here’s a mother juicy matchup involving him.  Kevin Na has one tourney under par the last 5.  That was only a 39th place finish.  The other tournaments he was +7, +4, +4, +4.  McDowell has one tourney over par all year.  He missed the cut at the Puerto Rico, besides that he’s got 6 of his 7 tourneys with top 30 finishes.  McDowell in much better form than Na.  And McDowell is plus money.

  • 03: JT Poston ov Kevin Streelman (Wells Fargo) 5dimes
  • It’s juicy at -140, but it’s time I put my money behind JT Poston.  He’s a good golfer, and he hasn’t missed a cut since January.  6 of his last 7 tournaments have been top 32 finishes.  Streelman has a missed cut, a 53rd, a 49th, and a 70th his last 4 tourneys.  And 4 out of the last 5 tourneys they’ve played together in, Poston has finished ahead of Streelman.  And the tourney that Streelman finished ahead of Poston, Streelman only finished ahead by a stroke.

  • 03: Jon Rahm ov Adam Scott (Wells Fargo) 5dimes
  • Jon Rahm had a triple bogey on the last hole at the Masters.  If he pars that hole, he finishes top 10.  That would give him 5 straight top 10 finishes in tournaments.  Adam Scott has been inconsistent this year, hasn’t had his putter going…I just like Jon Rahm here.

  • 03: Brian Gay ov David Lingmerth 1st round (Wells Fargo) 5dimes
  • Lingmerth doesn't have a first round under 71 in his last 4 tourneys.  Gaay has rounds of 68 in 3 of his last 4 tourneys.

  • 03: Dustin Johnson -1/2 ov Bill Haas 2nd round (Wells Fargo) 5dimes
  • It's juicy at -150, but Dustin has a nice track record of big 2nd rounds.  Last two tourneys he's played in, he shot 66 in both the second rounds.  Last three tourneys, Haas has shot 76, 72, 72 in the second round.

  • 03: Boo Weekly ov Geoff Ogilvy 2nd round (Wells Fargo) 5dimes
  • Fading Ogilvy has been a money maker recently, so I'll do it here.  Ogilvy with no birdies today.  None.  Shot +5.  Before the Zurich, he had 3 straight 2nd rounds at 74...before that a 79, 72, and 73.  Boo has a couple rounds under 70 in the second round...not great, but he had 3 birdies and 3 bogeys today, so he's at least got some upside.  Weekly is in a position to play good to try and make the cut...not sure what Ogilvy's motivation to play good is tomorrow.

  • 03: Brian Gay ov David Lingmerth 2nd round (Wells Fargo) 5dimes

- April

  • 20: McDowell ov Streb 2nd round (Valero) 5dimes
  • 19: Campos, Chappell, Hadwin, Hoffman, Laird, Poston
  • 19: Bradley, Finau, Grace, Laird, Schniederjans, Vegas
  • 19: Campos, Hadwin, Hoffman, Moore,C.Campbell, Poston
  • 19: Graeme McDowell ov Robert Streb -1/2 First Round (Valero) 5dimes
  • 19: Danny Lee ov Retief Goosen -1/2 First Round (Valero) 5dimes
  • 18: Ian Poulter ov Daniel Summerhays (Valero) 5dimes
  • Here’s what’s not in any stats you’ll find.  Ian Poulter needs to make $31,000 this week to keep his PGA tour card.  Last week he needed a good finish, and he finished 11th…this week I expect him to be the most focused golfer on the course as he has the most to play for.  Summerhays has pretty incredible tourney history here as he’s finished 13th, 7th, 4th, and 2nd the last 4 years, but he’s not in nearly as good as form as he was then.  His last 8 tournaments, he’s got 3 missed cuts, and every finish outside the top 45.

  • 18: Danny Lee ov Jaime Lovemark (Valero) 5dimes
  • After a terrible start to the year, Danny Lee is playing really good, and if you can identify these guys that weren’t playing good, and start to heat up, you can get some juicy matchups, and this is one of them.  Danny Lee had 4 missed cuts and a WD  in a row, but after the Honda Classic, he has 5 straight made cuts including 3 top 25’s.  The last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Danny Lee has finished ahead of Lovemark.

  • 18: JT Poston ov Jason Kokrak (Valero) 5dimes
  • Poston may be a new guy on tour, but he’s just better than Kokrak right now.  Poston hasn’t missed the cut since the Pebble Beach Pro Am, and since that tournament in 5 tournaments, he’s a combined 29 shots under par.  In that same period of time, Kokrak’s combined score in 5 tournaments is 7 shots over par.  The last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Poston has finished ahead of Kokrak.  Poston hasn’t played this tournament before, but Kokrak missed the cut here last year.

  • 18: Luke Donald ov Patrick Reed (Valero) bovada
  • At first glance, it would seem Patrick Reed would be the obvious play, but he’s the worse golfer right now.  Last year, Reed finished second at this tournament, but he had 5 made cuts previous to that including 3 top 10 finishes.  This year he has 2 straight missed cuts, and no finishes better than 38th in the 4 tournaments before that.  Luke Donald hasn’t been fantastic, but he has a 2nd place last week, only has one missed cut in his last 6 tournaments, and that was over a month ago, and Luke finished 13th here last year.

  • 18: Adam Hadwin ov Billy Horschel (Valero) bovada
  • Betting against Billly Horschel is dangerous, cause he’s inconsistent, and it’s even more dangerous cause he seems to like this tournament.  He’s finished 4th, 3rd, missed cut and 3rd the last 4 tourneys here.  But I look at this year, and Hadwin has been better and more consistent.  In fact, the last 6 tournaments they’ve played in together, Hadwin has finished ahead of Horschel in every tournament.

  • 18: Ryan Moore ov Jimmy Walker (Valero) bovada
  • I just really like what I’m seeing from Ryan Moore right now.  The one thing he’s showing this year that he’s been missing in years past is consistency.  Five straight top 30 finishes including a really solid 9th place finish at The Masters.  Walker has been good this year, but Moore has finished ahead of Walker the last 2 tourneys they’ve played in, and Walker missed the cut here last year.

  • 18: Rafael Campos ov Stewart Cink (Valero) 5dimes
  • Can't argue with the results here from Campos...his three starts this year on the PGA tour he's finished 10th, 7th, and 32nd.  Two of those tournaments he's finished better than Cink.  Stewart missed the cut last week, and he doesn't have any top 20 finishes in the last few months, so I like the upside on Campos here.

  • 11: Adam Hadwin ov Charley Hoffman (RBC Heritage) W
  • Hoffman really faded at the Masters after his hot start, but that’s not why I like this matchup.  Hadwin won the Valspar where the greens are the same and Hoffman missed the cut there.  Before the Masters, Hadwin had a win and a 6th place finish.  Love how Hadwin is playing right now.

  • 11: Francesco Molinari ov Russell Knox (RBC Heritage) L
  • Pretty simple here.  Molinari is playing some really good golf.  Russell Knox is playing the opposite of some really good golf.  Knox has a missed cut in 4 out of the last 5 tournaments, and the one he made the cut was a 70th place finish in Mexico.  One of those missed cuts was at the Valspar which we talked about earlier.  Molinari is playing really good, made the cut at the Masters, finished 33rd, before that 8 out of 9 tournaments were top 20 finishes, and 7 of those finishes were top 15.

  • 11: Kyle Stanley ov Webb Simpson (RBC Heritage) L
  • Taking the golfer with good momentum vs the golfer that’s been struggling recently.  Last year at this tournament, Simpson finished 66th, Stanley finished 33rd, but this season is the real story.  Missed cut at the Masters, missed cut at the Arnold Palmer, 41st at Valspar, 39th at Genesis.  Stanley the last 3 tournaments has gotten better each time.  27th at the Valspar, 17th at the Arnold Palmer, 8th at the Shell Houston Open.  Also, Stanley finished better at the Valspar, which we like.

  • 11: Hideto Tanihara ov Geoff Ogilvy (RBC Heritage) W
  • Tanihara hasn’t played this tournament before, but Ogilvy only finished 54th here last year.  This year, Tanihara missed the cut at the Masters, but that’s an outlier tournament.  The five tournaments leading up to the Masters, 4th, 32nd, 15th, 22nd, 9th.  Ogilvy finished 23th at the Shell Houston Open where all the bigger names were more concerned with getting to Augusta, and before that he has 3 straight missed cuts.

  • 11: Jason Dufner ov Jim Furyk (RBC Heritage) W
  • Take away the Match play, In all three tournaments they have both played in in 2017, Dufner has finished ahead of Furyk by over 30 positions in each tournament.  Furyk has good history at this tournament, but that was in 2015 and earlier.  Dufner was 33rd at the Masters, and all of his other tournaments this year have been top 10 finishes.  Furyk’s best finish is 39th.

  • 11: William McGirt ov Billy Horschel (RBC Heritage) W
  • Both have been inconsistent this year, I don’t see any clear advantage in current form…McGirt played good at the Masters, but McGirt really likes this tournament.  Two 9th place finishes, and a 31st the last 3 years.  Horschel the last 3 years doesn’t have any finishes inside the top 50.  Not a huge play, but I think it’s worth a little bit.

  • 08: Speith, Moore, Garcia, Hoffman, McGirt, Scott
  • 07: Speith, Mclloroy, Hoffman, McGirt, Couples, Walker
  • 07: Pieters,Westwood,Mickelson, Fowler, Hoffman, McGirt
  • 07: Pieters, Fowler, Garcia, Hoffman, Scott, McGirt
  • 07: Pieters, Garcia, Fowler, Hoffman, Dufner, Scott
  • 06: Fowler ov Matsuyama second round
  • Really liked the way Fowler played, especially in the tough wind in the morning.  He was pretty consistent, and shot basically one of the best rounds of the morning til the last hole.  He was -1 going into 18, and had a double, but I was really encouraged by his round with 4 birdies.  Matsuyama continues to struggle, and only had 1 birdie today.  I think Matsuyama fades to missed cut territory, where Fowler tries to gain a few strokes back to get within striking distance.

  • 05: Pick only offered at Bovada
  • In group A, they have DJ, Spieth, and McIlroy.  If you are trying to fade DJ, Spieth and McIlroy are both +200 right now.  Bet $200 on each of them to win the group.  As long as either Spieth or McIlroy wins the group, the winner pays back $400, the other bet is a $200 loser giving you a $200 profit.

  • 05: Paul Casey -1/2 ov Kevin Na-First Round
  • Kevin Na's last 3 first rounds are 71, 75, and 75.  Five out of the last 6 first rounds for Casey have been under 70.  At the last two Masters, Casey's first rounds are 69...Kevin Na's last two first rounds here are 74, and 72.

  • 05: Make The Cut Parlay (Andy's pick)
  • (These plays are more for fun, don't bet a lot on these.  They're a blast to follow on Thursday and Friday, but save your bankroll for other bets.  Sometimes betting is about making money, and sometimes it's just for good fun.  These parlays are for good fun.  Throw a little discretionary money on these, and enjoy rooting for them.  It makes Thursday and Friday a ton of fun.  And if they hit, it's awesome!!!)

    Fowler, Casey, Hadwin to make the cut

    +120

  • 05: Make The Cut Parlay (Andy's pick)
  • (These plays are more for fun, don't bet a lot on these.  They're a blast to follow on Thursday and Friday, but save your bankroll for other bets.  Sometimes betting is about making money, and sometimes it's just for good fun.  These parlays are for good fun.  Throw a little discretionary money on these, and enjoy rooting for them.  It makes Thursday and Friday a ton of fun.  And if they hit, it's awesome!!!)

    Dustin, Speith, Kisner, Haas

    +140

  • 05: Make The Cut Parlay (Andy's pick)
  • (These plays are more for fun, don't bet a lot on these.  They're a blast to follow on Thursday and Friday, but save your bankroll for other bets.  Sometimes betting is about making money, and sometimes it's just for good fun.  These parlays are for good fun.  Throw a little discretionary money on these, and enjoy rooting for them.  It makes Thursday and Friday a ton of fun.  And if they hit, it's awesome!!!)

    Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Tyrell Hatton, Bernd Weisberger

    +170

  • 05: MISS The Cut Parlay (Andy's pick)
  • (These plays are more for fun, don't bet a lot on these.  They're a blast to follow on Thursday and Friday, but save your bankroll for other bets.  Sometimes betting is about making money, and sometimes it's just for good fun.  These parlays are for good fun.  Throw a little discretionary money on these, and enjoy rooting for them.  It makes Thursday and Friday a ton of fun.  And if they hit, it's awesome!!!)

    Jason Day, Henrik Stenson, Gary Woodland to miss the cut

    +5000

  • 05: Make The Cut Parlay (Andy's pick)
  • (These plays are more for fun, don't bet a lot on these.  They're a blast to follow on Thursday and Friday, but save your bankroll for other bets.  Sometimes betting is about making money, and sometimes it's just for good fun.  These parlays are for good fun.  Throw a little discretionary money on these, and enjoy rooting for them.  It makes Thursday and Friday a ton of fun.  And if they hit, it's awesome!!!)

    Dustin, Rory, Spieth, Fowler, Rahm, Rose, Casey, Hatton, Hadwin, Henley, Haas, Kisner, Wiesberger

    +2100

  • 04: Jordan Spieth ov Rory McIlroy First Round (Andy's picks)
  • Since 2011, Rory has not shot a first round at the Masters under 70.  He shot a 74 at the Arnold Palmer first round, and he lost his first round match at the Match play.  Spieth in 2017, has 2 rounds over 70, and 5 rounds 70 or better.  The last 2 years at the Masters, Spieth has shot 66, and 64.  BTW, I’m not worried about Jordan Spieths missed cut at the Shell Houston open AT ALL.  He shot 69 first round, then 77 second round so he can conveniently miss the cut so he can get to Augusta.  Besides that tournament, he’s finished 12th, 22nd, 1st, 9th, 3rd, and 3rd in 2017.  He’s fine.

  • 04: Dustin Johnson ov Hideki Matsuyama (Andy's pick)
  • Looking at his past finishes here at the Masters, Matsuyama has a 5th and 7th the last two years.  One big problem.  Both those years he was coming into the tournament strong, and with several top 10 finishes.  This year?  Not so much.  Since his win at the waste management, Hideki has a 25th, a missed cut, a 45th, and a 51st.  I don’t know if you’ve heard of the other guy Dustin Johnson, but he’s got pretty good momentum coming in here winning his last 3 tournaments he’s played in.  Dustin’s last 2 finishes here are 6th and 4th.  I don’t care about the juice here…I’m laying it with no hesitation.

  • 04: Rickie Fowler ov Jason Day (Andy's pick)
  • This is just a fade at Jason Day.  I feel terrible at his personal situation, but there’s just no way he’s in good form right now.  He WD’d at the last tourney he played in, his Mom went through what appears to be successful lung cancer surgery, but he’s going to be a last minute decision to even play.  If he doesn’t play, the plays against Day are refunded, but if he plays I can’t believe he’s going to be competitive.  Fowler has been in phenomenal form…his last 5 tourneys have all been top 16 finishes, and 3 of those finishes were top 4.  Fowler had a bizarre missed cut here last year, but before that he finished 5th, and 12th.

  • 04: Jon Rahm ov Jason Day (Andy's pick)
  • Same reasons as above.  I know Rahm hasn’t played here, but 5 of his last 6 tourneys he’s finished top 10, and 3 of those were top 5 tourneys.  He’s in incredible form.

  • 04: Phil Mickelson ov Henrik Stenson (Andy's pick)
  • Stenson still hasn’t figured out his putting, and to add to that, he hit a few shots into the water and in the rough last week.  And to not have your putting figured out coming into Augusta is not ideal to say the least.  He’s missed the cut the last 2 tournaments he’s been in, which is insane to say about Henrik Stenson.  Phil made the cut last week, had a couple top 7 finishes before that, he’s in ok form.  Phil is all over the board with his finishes at Augusta…in the last 5 years he has 2 missed cuts, and two top 3 finishes, so we’re just hoping we get good Phil this week.  But even we get bad Phil, Stenson could be even worse.

  • 04: Marc Leishman ov Brooks Koepka (Andy's pick)
  • Interesting matchup here, but if you dig deep inside the numbers, the play is pretty clear.  I used a pretty clear combo of tourney history, and current form here, and here’s what I see.  I started with Leishman’s tourney history, and it’s not good where as Koepka has ok tourney history.  Leishman has missed the cut 3 out of the 4 Masters he’s played in, and he’s also got a 4th place finish.  In 2016 Leishman missed the cut, but also wasn’t in good form with a 51st place finish and several missed cuts.  In 2014 he missed the cut, but again…not good form.  No finishes inside the top 30 leading up to the Masters.  In 2010, the same thing.  However, this year he only has one missed cut, and every other tourney for him he’s finished inside the top 27, and his last two tournaments he has a win, and a 9th, and the win was a tourney that Rory McIlroy played in.  Koepka has a 33rd and a 21st at the Masters the last 2 years, but here’s the thing…in those years he was in pretty decent form.  Not missing the cut, several top 10 finishes.  This year, however, Koepka has 4 missed cuts out of 6 tourneys, a 42nd, a 48th.  He did ok in the Match Play, but match play isn’t the same as tournament play, and his group was terrible.  So I think based on the past performances of these guys matching up with their current form at the time…it leads us to the conclusion Leishman will be better.

  • 04: Matthew Fitzpatrick ov Brooks Koepka (Andy's pick)
  • Same thing with Koepka above…Matthew Fitzpatrick hasn’t missed a cut on the PGA tour this season, and has 2 top 16 finishes in his last 2 PGA tour events, and he finished 7th at the Masters last year.  (Fitzpatrick is +130 now)

  • 04: * Asshole play of the year- Russell Henley ov Gary Woodland (Andy's pick)
  • I’m not going to go into the details of what’s going on in Gary Woodland’s personal life because it’s terrible, and you can look it up yourself, but I have a hard time thinking his head is going to be in this tournament.  Henley in great form, nice win last week, several top 15 finishes this year, and he’s finished 31st, and 21st here the last 2 times he’s played here.  Thoughts to Woodland and his wife.

  • 04: Tyrell Hatton ov Louis Oosthuizen (Andy's pick)
  • No.  +400

  • 01: Rahm ov Rose 4th round
  • I think Rahm is going to want to continue his momentum through Sunday going into the Masters.  Not sure how dialed in Rose is going to be tomorrow in a round, he probably doesn't care too much about.


    WINNER

- March

  • 31: Kokrak -1/2 ov Cabrera 3rd round (Andy's pick)
  • I'm not confident that Cabrera will keep playing as good as he has the first 2 rounds.


    LOSER  (lol...Cabrera plays bad, shoots +4...Kokrak implodes and shoots +10)

  • 30: Jhonattan Vegas -1/2 ov Robert Streb second round
  • This play was a big winner today...going back to the well again.  Streb shot +5 today, Vegas -6.  Hard to believe Streb is going to shoot better than Vegas tomorrow.


    LOSER

  • 30: Adam Scott ov Henrik Stenson second round
  • Stenson still has massive issues with his putting, and couldn't get close to shooting even today.  Adam Scott had a solid round, and I see him having another consistent round tomorrow.


    LOSER

  • 29: Westwood ov Campbell First Round (Andy's Pick)
  • Really like Westwood in this spot.  He's been starting strong in PGA events, and Campbell has not.  Westwood is +100 here which is a great price for this play.


    LOSER

  • 29: Jhonattan Vegas -1/2 ov Robert Streb First Round (Andy's Pick)
  • Three straight tourney's, Vegas has shot 69, 67, 67 in the first round. Streb has a 72, and 77 in his last 2 tourneys.  He's missed the cut the last 5 tourney's he's played in, and only has 2 rounds in his last 9 under par.  Love Vegas here.


    WINNER

  • 29: Rafa Cabrera-Bello over Jimmy Walker
  • Bello has made 10 straight cuts.

    Walker has been inconsistent and hasn't scored better than a 19th hat this event.


  • 29: Patty Reed over Billy Horschel
  • Reed gets it all back this week as he prepares for the Masters. 10th and 17th here in previous outings.

    Billy has gone 13, MC, 4, MC...


    I like Reed to get it all back on track as the "real" PGA season starts next week.

  • 29: Howell III over Hoffman
  • Battle of the Chucks......Yes.....Hoffman does well here...however, Chuck Howell III is playing solid golf.

    I like C.H. III this week.....just by a hair. (Which Charlie cut off a couple of years ago.)

  • 29: Speith over Henson
  • I'm fading Henson until he shows me he can putt....especially with shoes on....

    Jordan "The Texas Ginsu" Speith dominates in his home state....

  • 29: Westwood over Wiesberger
  • At all 4 tournaments Westwood plays, he is solid......look at Westwood's finishes this season....He's basically top 30 or better every time out.

  • 29: Poston over Donald
  • Poston is arguably top 10 in the world right now....Take him until he stumbles...which isn't going to happen to this young buck.

  • 28: Jon Rahm ov Henrik Stenson (Andy's Pick)
  • Rahm is arguably the second best golfer on the planet right now behind Dustin.  Four out of the last 5 tournaments, he’s finished in the top 5.  Stenson has a real issue with his putting.  It started the second round at the Valspar championship, and continued into the Arnold Palmer where he missed the cut.  Until he gets his putting figured out, he’s fade material.  And Rahm is the underdog here at +110!!!


    WINNER

  • 28: Kyle Stanley ov Cameron Tringale (Andy's Pick)
  • Kyle Stanley only has one missed cut in his last 8 tournaments.  His worst finish in the other 7 tournaments was 39th, and his last two tournaments he’s played in he finished 27th and 17th.  Triangle has a random 8th place finish at the Genesis Open, but other than that he has 4 missed cuts,  a 44th, 65th, and 73rd.

    WINNER

  • 28: Stewart Cink ov Matt Jones (Andy's Pick)
  • Here’s all you need to know about Matt Jones.  He missed the cut last week at the Puerto Rico Open.  He had a good finish at the weird Pebble Beach Pro Am, and barely made the cut at the Waste Management.  Stewart Cink, meanwhile, has been really consistent.  And I mean REALLY consistent.  His last 4 tournaments he’s finished 27th or 28th.  That’s consistent!!!  Only one missed cut in his last 11 tournaments.

    WINNER

  • 28: Chris Stroud ov Retief Goosen (Andy's Pick)
  • Goosen randomly finished 2nd at the Puerto Rico Open.  Before that?  9 straight missed cuts.  He sucks.  Chris Stroud isn’t lighting the world on fire, but he finished 8th at the Puerto Rico Open, and has made some cuts in the 2017 season, and he plays pretty good here.  Five straight made cuts at this tourney, the last 3 years here 27th, 17th, 12th.

    WINNER

  • 28: *Bonus Piece of Advice (Andy's Pick)
  • If Ryan Palmer makes the cut, bet against him in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  He’s terrible on Saturday and Sunday.  He doesn’t have one round under 70 in the 3rd or 4th round in 2017.

  • 25: Dustin ov Alex Noren
  • Loren only had 1 birdie in his round against Koepka.  Dustin had 6 through 14 before he closed out Zach.  Again, it's juicy at -250, but I don't see Noren beating him here.


    WINNER

  • 25: Dustin ov Zach Johnson
  • I know we've preached to not bet on match play, but Dustin is just in the zone right now.  I don't know who beats him, but I don't think it's going to be Zach.  It's juicy at -250, but I'm still playing it.


    WINNER

  • 18: Rory -1/2 ov Glover
  • Thinking Rory comes out with a vengeance tomorrow.  He gets a few birdies to start, and the leaders will take notice, and will probably get nervous.  Then he pounces.  I think -7 is possible again tomorrow.


    WINNER

  • 16: Hatton -1/2 ov Kaufman 2nd round
  • Hit this today with Hatton not even playing his best.  Going to play it again 2nd round.


    WINNER

  • 16: Matsuyama ov Stenson 2nd round
  • Matsuyama had one bad hole, otherwise he would have been -2.  Stenson has lost his putting.  He struggled last weekend, and struggled today...I see no reason why that changes tomorrow.


    WINNER

NFL

2019

- December

  • 08: Sam Darnold ov 249.5 yds passing
  • The Dophins are so banged up in the secondary, and they can't stop anyone throwing the ball. They've given up over 300 yards passing in two straight games to Philadelphia and Cleveland (two teams who have struggled to throw the ball this year). The Jets don't run the ball well, so they are relying on passing the ball. Last weeks game against the Benglas was a weird outlier, but the two games before that Darnold passed for over 290 yards...I expect them to attack Miami through the air today.

  • 01: Jameis Winston ov 281 yds passing
  • Jameis has thrown for over 300 yards in 8 of his last 9 games. The Jaguars defense has really fallen apart recently giving up 42 points last week, 33 the week before and 26 the week before that. Teams have had success rushing on the Jags recently, but the Bucs aren't a running team, and they'll rely on their passing attack to move the ball on a defense that looks very uninspired.

  • 01: Derek Carr under 243 yds passing
  • The Raiders are going to want to run the ball today, and run time off the clock to keep Mahomes off the field, so I expect to see the Raiders trying to grind out drives. Carr has really struggled in low temperature games, and this game is low temperature in the low to mid 30's. Add to that the winds are going to be high today around 30 mph and that has the recipe of a bad passing attack for the Raiders.

- November

  • 28: Josh Allen ov 35.5 yds rushing
  • Josh Allen has been running a lot recently. Rushed for 56 yards in two straight games, and I expect this game to be close with his rushing being a part of the game plan. Dallas rush defense has not been good recently giving up over 120 yards average in the last 3 games. I expect him to run if some plays break down, and I expect to see some called runs for him. He's been very good this year, I think he'll give Dallas some real problems today with his mobility.

  • 03: Matt Moore ov 261.5 yds passing
  • The Vikings corner backs are slow. Xavier Rhodes has really been exploited, and the Vikings have allowed 5 quarterbacks this year to score over 18 fantasy points. Last week Case Keenum was carving up the secondary until he got hurt. The game before that Stafford threw for 336 yards against the Vikings, and the week before that Carson Wentz threw for over 300 yards. These Chiefs wide receivers are very fast, and should get a lot of yards after the catch for Moore. I expect the Chiefs to not have much room to run, and Andy Reid to have a game plan of throwing the ball a lot. Love love love this play.

- October

  • 27: Matthew Stafford ov 23.5 completions
  • When Kerryon Johnson went out, they lost their main weapon in their running game, and last week without him in a game they got down, Stafford had to throw the ball 45 times with 30 completions. The Giants don’t have a good rushing or passing defense, and last week the Cardinals exploited the rushing defense. I expect the Giants to make adjustments and not get beaten by the run this week. Combine that with a weakened rushing game for the Lions, I like the Lions to attack the Giants through the air this week.

  • 27: Chris Godwin ov 88.5 Yards receiving
  • The Chargers were the best passing offense the Titans have faced all season and Rivers threw for 329 yards and had two receivers catch for over 88.5 yards last week. The Titans have decent numbers for passing defense, but that’s based on a schedule with teams that don’t throw the ball a ton. Jameis has been throwing for a lot of yards the last few weeks against several good defenses, and Godwin is his favorite target going for over 125 yards in 3 straight. I see more success this week as the Titans should struggle to run the ball against a great Bucs defense which will turn this into a passing game which should mean a few more possessions.

  • 27: Allen Robinson ov 5.5 Rec +110
  • Trubisky loves throwing the ball to Allen Robinson. Last week he had 10 receptions which was impressive against the Saints D who has been a killer to number 1 receivers. Robinson has had 6 receptions in 4 straight games. The Chargers do give up yards on the ground so I expect the Bears to try and get the running game going, but when they throw, it’s going to be to Allen Robinson.

  • 27: Chris Carson ov 76.5 yds rushing
  • The Seahawks prefer to run the ball and control the clocks, and they should be able to against a Falcons team who’s season is pretty much over and their starting Matt Schaub with Matt Ryan out. In their last 3 wins, their game plan has been the same. Run the ball. Carson has over 100 yards in those 3 wins, todays game is expected to be a win for the Seahawks, so I look for Carson to continue his dominance on the ground against an Atlanta team who gives up over 113 yards a game on the ground.

  • 17: Thursday Night PLAYER PROP: Phillip Lindsay over 72.5 yards rushing
  • The Chiefs have given up over 100 yards to the leading running back in 5 straight games. Their secondary is hurt, their quarterback is hurt and teams have learned the best way to beat the Chiefs is to run the ball, and keep the ball away from Mahomes. Last week against a good Titans run defense, Lindsay got to 70 yards rushing. The week before that he was over 100 yards against the Chargers. The Chiefs are the 3rd worse rushing defense giving up 162 yards a game on the ground.

    I see a ground and pound attack from the Broncos tonight with Lindsay getting close to if not over 100 yards rushing.

  • 16: KJ'S COLLEGE PICKS
  • Florida -6 ov South Carolina

    Minnesota -28.5 ov Rutgers

    Ohio St -27.5 ov Northwestern

  • 16: NFL BET OF THE WEEK
  • The Dolphins are openly tanking, and the Redskins barely beat them by 1 point. The 49ers allowed the Rams to throw for 48 yards. Let’s start with the 49ers and how good they are. They’re the number 2 defense in the league behind New England, and they’ve had a bit of a tougher schedule than New England. Rams, Browns, Steelers, Bengals, Bucs. They only allow 237 yards a game to teams. They’ve caused 11 fumbles, which is second in the league, and their the 5th best teams in terms of penalties committed on defense so their disciplined. The other team only has the ball an average of 24:57 in the game, that’s a huge advantage, and they’ve only given up a total of 64 points. Now lets look at the Redskins defense. They give up an average of 27.8 points per game. They’re defense is on the field an average of 33:24 per game, and they give up 134 yards a game rushing. And that includes a game against the Dolphins. On offense the 49ers average 408 yards a game, the Redskins 286. The 49ers average 180 yards rushing a game, the Redskins 81.

    Here are the arguments against this play. West Coast team traveling East doesn’t have a great rack record. I don’t care. This could be a trap game off a big win against the Rams…I don’t think Kyle Shannahan and Garrapolo and that defense have trap games. They look locked and loaded, they had their bye 2 weeks ago, and they had injuries last week and still stomped the Rams. I don’t see any advantage the Redskins have, they are struggling to get fans to show up to games, there’s no home field advantage…the 49ers running game and defensive style travels on the road well…I think they crush the Redskins.

  • 13: Chris Carson ov 80.5 yds rushing
  • Cleveland really struggles against the run giving up over 150 yards a game, and it appears Seattle is starting to hit its groove in the rushing game. Carson has rushed for over 100 yards in the last 2 games, and the one worry for Carson losing touches is Rashad Penny who is banged up, and questionable with a hamstring injury. I expect Seattle to keep pounding the ball with Carson and look for potentially another 100 yard rushing performance.

  • 13: Deshaun Watson ov 274.5 yards passing.
  • Watson had a tough passing defense schedule to start the year, but he’s in the middle a great stretch for him to light up some bad defenses. To start the year, he had the Saints, Jaguars, Charger and Panthers, but he got the Falcons last week who have been giving up over 380 yards a game, and he went off for 426 yards. This week he gets the bad Chiefs defense who are not great on passing and really bad on rush defense, but I’m not sure the Texans have the dominant run game to really exploit it. The Chiefs rank 25th in total defense, and this game has all the makings of a shootout with Tyreek Hill coming back.

  • 13: Leonard Fournette ov 79.5 yds rushing
  • Minshew is now comfortable with the Jaguars offense and it looks like they are in a groove, and especially Leonard Fournette. Two straight 100 yard performances, and the Saints give up over 108 yards a game on the ground. The pass defense of the Saints is very good, so the way to attack them is on the ground. I expect the Jags to use Fournette as much as possible today in a close game.

  • 13: Kenyan Drake ov 43 yds rushing
  • It’s tough to take an over on a Miami Dolphin, but they get a dream matchup against a Redskins team that gives up 144 yards a game rushing. This game will probably be ugly, but both teams will probably be able to move the ball, and Miami will probably move the ball with Drake, who should be able to get some room against a terrible Redskins defense.

  • 13: Ito Smith ov 22.5 yds rushing
  • The Falcons have faced three straight rushing defenses in the top half of the league in terms of rushing yards allowed. So they’ve really struggled to get yards on the ground, and Freeman has not looked good this season. Smith has limited carries, but averages over 5 yards an attempt.

  • 09: KJ's College Picks:
  • Indiana -27.5 ov Rutgers

    Michigan 21.5 ov Illinois

    Maryland -3 ov Purdue

  • 09: NFL Pick: Patriots -16.5
  • 06: Tyler Eifert to score a TD +260
  • Cardinals are really bad against tight ends. They've given up a touchdown in every game this year to tight ends. Bengals have lots of injuries to receivers, Dalton could really depend on Eifert in the passing game, especially in the redzone.

  • 06: Luke Falk ov 204.5 yds passing
  • This is all about how bad the Eagles secondary is. They give up 328 yards passing a game. Falk has now had time to get comfortable with the offense, and should be more in rhythm than he was able to be in against the elite Patriots defense. 205 yards is not too difficult to get to when you're throwing against a banged up secondary and you have a running back like Leveon Bell who is dynamite on screen passes.

  • 06: Josh Jacobs under 59.5 yds rushing
  • The bears defense only gives up 60 yds a game rushing. The Raiders like Jacobs, but they use a lot of running backs which takes away from his touches. Last week we hit on Jacobs and the over, but he only hit the over on the last possession in a game that they were ahead the whole game. Gruden loves the run, but can give up on it very easily. The Bears will probably want to run the ball a lot today in London, so that can lower the amount of possessions the Raiders will get. Last time the Raiders played a good rush defense was two weeks ago against the Vikings and Jacobs only rushed for 44 yards.

  • 06: NFL Bet of the Week: REDSKINS UNDER 14 POINTS
  • Patriots have only given up 1 offensive touchdown all year, and the Redskins are struggling to figure out who will start at quarterback. There's always garbage time, but the Patriots don't normally sit guys, and they are deep on defense so even if they pull out some starters, they have backups who would be starters on most teams. To get over 14 points means the Redskins will need 2 touchdowns and another score. I just don't see the road map to over 14 points with McLaurin being injured, McCoy starting today and QB, and the Redskins being so dysfunctional.

- September

  • 29: I’m on the road so I can’t post writeups. Sorry. Here are the picks.
  • Patrick Mahomes ov 2.5 tds passing

    Josh Jacobs ov 64.5 yds rushing

    Dontrelle Inman ov 51.5 yds passing

    Todd Gurley under 61.5 yds rushing

  • 25: KJ's College Football Picks
  • Ohio St -18 ov Nebraska

    Old Dominion -3 ov ECU

  • 25: NFL Bet Of The Week-Week 3 Patriots -7 ov Bills
  • I think the Bills stink, and I think the Patriots kill them this week. Patriots are getting 7 points, I’ll take it. I already know what a lot of people are gonna say. That’s a square play. That’s not a sharp play. That’s an average Joe play. Plays like this are why sports books are in business, it’s why the casinos are so big. Maybe so. But I can already see what’s going to happen with this play. Average bettors are going to play the Patriots. Line moves up a bit. Then the “Fake Sharps” as I like to call them think the play is the Bills because they’re getting 7.5 or 8 points. I call them “Fake Sharps” cause these guys aren’t actual sharps, they just like to think they are, but really they’re just average guys who make “cute bets” just to go against the grain. Fine. Let me make the case why the Patriots -7 is a sharp play.

    The Bills are 3-0. Yippee. Let’s go over these wins. Week 1 they beat the Jets. In the first half the Bills had more turnovers than points. Then they needed 14 points in the 4th quarter to beat the Jets, who’s quarterback at the time was playing with Mono. It got announced the next day he had Mono, it wasn’t like Darold played the game, went out and kissed a hooker and got mono the next day. He was playing with mono. Congratulations on the win Bills.

    Week 2 they play the Giants and Eli Manning’s last game as a Giant. Eli Manning has been shot for 2 years, the Bills get him in his last game at his slowest. The Giants rank 31st in total defense and dead last in passing defense. Great win Buffalo.

    Week 3 they win by 4 points to Andy Dalton and the Benglas. Bengals average 42 yards rushing a game. They’re the 7th worst defensive team in the league. Another impressive win.

    Now let’s look at some Patriots stats. They’re the number 1 defense by far. I know they played the Jets and the Dolphins, but they also beat the shit out of the Steelers in week 1. The defense hasn’t given up an offensive touchdown this year. How’s the offense? 5th in the league averaging over 400 yards of offense a game.

    Mike Lombardi, former GM of the Patriots, and life long Patriots foot brings up the point about the Bills being at home, and that the crowd is going to be loud. He says that he thinks the Bills are good. This is the ultimate Patriots guy trying to play possum, he doesn’t believe a word of this nonsense. There might be some teams that the Buffalo stadium affects… but the Patriots who go to the Super Bowl every other year with Brady and Bellichek…I’m gonna go out on a limb and say they aren’t going to be intimidated by the Buffalo crowd, and guys being thrown through card tables in the parking lot.

    Here’s my last reason for this line. I think it’s just the wrong number. So last week the Patriots were 21 point favorites at home. Take away 3 points for home field, it’s 18 points. This week the Pats are 7 point favorites on the road. That means on a neutral field the Pats would be 10 point favorites. So doing some math tells me that with the 8 point difference in the lines, that the books are telling us that the Bills would be 8 point favorites over the Jets. That’s almost the same point spread in this game. The books are trying to tell us that the Bills are as close to the Patriots as the Jets are as close to the Bills? No way. This line is 3 points off. Patriots will hear all week how Buffalo is pretty good, they go into Buffalo and show everyone how far Buffalo has to go to get to the Patriots level.

  • 22: Luke Falk under 209.5 yards passing
  • This may be the best defense the Patriots have had…ever. And they’ve been holding teams to not a lot of offense, which is what the books are telling us is going to happen today. The Patriots are expected to beat the Jets pretty handily, but I also look for them to dominate time of possession. The Jets are extremely limited on offense, and Leveon Bell is their only legit weapon, and the Patriots have not allowed teams to run the ball at all. I think that also translates into a lack of passing offense as I don’t know who Falk is going to be able to throw to with this secondary, and dump off passes to Leveon will be very limited. I see the Patriots dominating with the run game in the second half with limited opportunities for the Jets to get a passing game going.

  • 22: Andy Dalton ov 235.5 passing yards
  • The Bengals cannot run the ball. And so they’ve been throwing. Dalton threw for over 400 yards in week 1, and for 311 in week 2. Mixon is banged up, and Dalton has been spreading the ball around to many different receivers (9 different receivers in week 1, 8 in week 2) so he’s not dependent on one person. The Bills have been good against the pass, but those numbers can be deceiving. They went against the hapless Eli Manning and Sam Darnold who apparently was playing with mono. I think this number is way too low.

  • 22: Lamar Jackson ov 58.5 yards rushing
  • The Ravens didn’t have to use the running game with Lamar against the Dolphins, but week 2 gave us a peek as to what he’s capable of with 120 yards rushing. It’s tough to gauge the Chiefs defense after playing the Jags when Foles got hurt, and the strange Raiders, but this game has a very high O/U with 52, so the books expect a high scoring game. That means more possessions, and more opportunities for Lamar Jackson to run when the defense gives him room. I expect the Ravens and Jackson to pull out everything they have in the playbook, including some unique looks for Lamar runs.

  • 22: Joe Flacco ov 238.5 yards passing
  • Flacco hasn’t been very good in game, but he’s surpassed 238.5 yards easily in the first 2 games. The Packers defense haven’t allowed over 238.5 yards passing, but they’ve played two very weak passing quarterbacks in Trubisky and Cousins. The Broncos don’t have a prolific running game, so I expect to see the Broncos attack the Packers through the air today.

  • 15: Jimmy Garrapolo under 265 yds passing
  • The 49ers offense has been bad in preseason, and even though they won against the Bucs last week, it wasn’t because of the passing offense. Garrapolo only had 166 yards passing, and the Bengals were very good against Russell Wilson last week. Bengals are at home, I don’t see the receiving threats for the 49ers…I expect them to struggle to move the ball through the passing game.

  • 15: Sony Michel ov 70.5 yds rushing
  • If you believe the Patriots will win this game big, which Vegas does, you have to believe there will be running involved by the Patriots either at the beginning or end of the game. And that means a “get right game” for Sony Michel. The total seems low for their featured back, and while Brady and the passing game should be good, there’s probably going to be a lot of snaps for Michel against a defense that gave up well over 200 yards rushing last week against Baltimore.

  • 15: Devin Singletary ov 40.5 yards rushing
  • Singletary is the best running back the Bills have, and they know it. Gore is solid, but Singletary has explosion and we saw it last week when Singletary had 4 carries for 70 yards, where as Gore had 11 carries for 20 yards. Last week the Cowboys didn’t run the ball a ton against the Giants, but I have a feeling it was because they wanted to ease Zeke into the offense and not give him a ton of work. I see Singletary having a bigger role this week as he takes over the starting job.

  • 15: Austin Ekler ov 57.5 rushing yards
  • Ekeler only had 58 yards rushing last week, but that was against an improved Colts defense, and it was the first game of the season. Ekeler was effective and efficient, and this matchup has the potential for the Chargers to be ahead, but more importantly they are banged up in the receiving department. Hunter Henry out, Williams is hurt so I think they use the running game more this week and Ekeler should see an increase in touches over his 12 carries last week.

- May

  • 26: Jim Furyk ov Tony Finau
  • Tony Finau has not had a good record in 4th rounds recently. In 8 of his last 9 4th rounds, only one has been below 70. He has 5 straight 4th rounds of 72 or worse. And in those 5 tournaments, his 4th round score has been his worse round of the tournament. Furyk has been pretty steady in the 4th rounds this year, I like him to keep steady and not make any big mistakes today.

  • 25: FORMULA 1 Play- Kevin Magnussen top 6
  • He qualified 6th, but the guy behind him got penalized and will drop 3 spots. So Magnussen will start 5th. On a course that's nearly impossible to pass, if he gets off to a good start, he will have a good shot at top 6. Books haven't adjusted...he's still plus money.

  • 25: Third Round Play PGA TOUR- CT Pan ov Jordan Spieth
  • Jordan Spieths 5 birdies yesterday included 2 16+ feet putts, a 46 foot putt, and a 50 foot putt. He's been insane with the putter, but it's not sustainable. His irons haven't been consistently sharp. Over his last 9 rounds he's been +20 on putting. That's insanity. CT Pan has been very consistent this tournament, and I expect a regression for Spieth, and Pan to continue his consistent play.

  • 22: Paul Casey ov Tony Finau
  • Take out the Majors. Take out the Masters and Pga Championship. Paul Casey has been great. Finau not good. Without the Majors, Finau’s average finish is 44th. Casey’s average finish is 23rd. Couple of stats that are important this week are driving accuracy and greens in regulation. Finau is 175th in driving accuracy, 121st in greens in regulation. Casey is 13th in driving accuracy, 25th in greens in regulation. Both guys played all 4 rounds at Bethpage.

  • 22: Kevin Kisner ov Bryson Dechambeau
  • I get Kevin Kisner +130 ov Bryson Dechambeau? I’ll take it!!! Dechambeau is sliding into a funk. His finishes have gotten worse as the year has progressed. in January and february, his finishes were 7, 10, 15, 56. In April and May his finishes were 29th and 2 missed cuts. He doesn’t pass the eye test as well. Kisner was terrible at the PGA Championship…I don’t care, the course set up terrible for him, he averages 286 off the tee. But he has been very steady. 9 top 28 finishes in the last 11 tournaments. No way he should be +130 in this matchup.

  • 22: Matt Jones ov Jimmy Walker
  • Again I get a guy who was off last week against a guy who played 4 rounds of tough golf last week. And Jones has been really good this year. Here’s the only stat I need for this matchup. Jones and Walker have played in 7 tournaments together this year. Walker has never finished ahead of Jones in any of those 7 tournaments. I get the rested golfer, the fresh golfer, and the last tournament they played in together Jones finished ahead of Walker by 18 shots.

  • 22: Rory Sabbatini ov Emiliano Grillo
  • I’ve been a big fan of Sabbatini…why not keep going with him. In the last 4 tournaments, Sabatini’s worst finish is 18th at the Wells Fargo. Grillo played very good at the Pga Championship, but I think a lot of these guys who played 4 rounds are going to be a bit tired. I love that Sabbatini is rested here. In 2019, Grillo’s best finish is 22nd. Sabbatini has 5 finishes better than that. I think Grillo has been good not great…I think Sabbatini is on a nice run, I want to take advantage of it.

  • 22: Jim Furyk ov Johnattan Vegas
  • Vegas out drives Furyk by an average of 35 yards on tour this year. So surely, Vegas finished ahead of Furyk last week, right? Wrong. Furyk finished ahead of him by 8 shots. Furyk hasn’t been great the last couple tournaments, but before that Furyk was great. 23, 17, 18, 2, 9. And this tournament sets up great for him. Short, small fairways, and have to be accurate going into the green. This year, Furyk has finished ahead of Vegas in all 5 tournaments they’ve played in together this year. Furyk first in driving accuracy at 75%…Vegas 169th at 58%.

  • 22: Victor Dubuisson ov Lee Westwood
  • Victor Dubuisson has been great, as Sacker has predicted. 23rd, 11th, 30th, 10th his last 4 tournaments. Westwood sucks. He’s old. He played at Bethpage, has a long flight back. Victor has all the rest, he’s been way better than Westwood all year…Love this bet.

  • 22: Kurt Busch ov Aric Almirola
  • Kurt is the number one ranked driver on mile on the big non-restrictor plate tracks. 4 top 10’s in all 4 of those races. Amirola is the number 5 ranked driver on those tracks, and last year in this race Kurt Busch finished 8th, Almirola finished 13th.

  • 22: Denny Hamlin ov Ryan Blaney
  • Hamlin a much better driver on these tracks this year. His average finish is 9th. Blaney is 23rd. Last year in this race Hamlin finished 4th. Blaney 22nd. For whatever reason, Blaney is bad on these bigger tracks where Hamlin is really good.

  • 22: Brad Keselowski ov Joey Logano
  • Brad just always ends up near the front in these races. He’s got the best crew chief, they always know how to make adjustments on the car as the race goes on. Brad wrecked in the Texas race…besides that race, he’s the number one driver on the big tracks with no restrictor plates…his average finish at Kansas City, Fontana, Las Vegas, Atlanta is 1.8. He finished 4th last year at this race. Logano 22nd.

  • 22: FORMULA 1 PICKS-Lewis Hamilton to win +120, Valterri Bottas to win +150
  • If a Mercedes car wins, we turn a profit. If Bottas wins, we do great. The only threat to Mercedes this week is Max Verstappen. Red Bull cars are set up great for this course as their aren’t a ton of long stretches, but Mercedes is set up great for this as well. There’s basically no passing on this course, its a boring race to watch, so basically whoever gets out front will win. It’s all about qualifying in this race, and this year has shown that the set up of the cars does not allow for passing. Need Mercedes to qualify 1-2, and we should be good. Ferrari shouldn’t be a threat as this track sets up bad for them.

  • 22: victor ov lee
  • 22: Victor Dubuisson ov Lee Westwood

- January

  • 20: Tom Brady ov 25.5 completions
  • 12: Marlon Mack ov 82.5 yds rushing
  • 05: Dontrel Inman ov 36.5 yards rec
  • Inman was good two weeks ago, and great last week with 7 catches for 77 yards, and when Luck has time, Inman gets open. Luck will have time, and I love the passing game to attack Houston’s bad passing defense which ranks outside the top 25.

2018

- December

  • 30: Andrew Luck ov 10.5 yards rushing
  • Luck 4 straight games over 10 yards rushing. In a playoff game tonight, he'll run instead of throwing it away.

  • 30: Evan Engram ov 54 yards receiving
  • Love this matchup against a Cowboys team who is sitting everyone. In his last 3 games, Engram has 87, 75, and 77 yards receiving.

  • 30: Jamaal Williams ov 64.5 yards rushing
  • Davante Adams is out for the Packers which should mean more running opportunities for Williams. He rushed for 95 yards last week, and the Lions look like they've given up on the year. They've given up over 100 yards rushing in 2 straight games.

  • 30: Patriots under 30 pts
  • Pats have scored over 30 points one time in the last 6 games. Not sure they're interested in lighting up the scoreboard today. Just need enough to win.

  • 23: Saquon Barkley ov 64.5 yards
  • Last week the Giants couldn't get much going on offense, but today they've had a couple of weeks to adjust without Odell, and we think they're probably going to have to lean on Saquon. Even in a shutout last week, the Colts allowed Zeke to rush for 87 yards. While the Colts D has been much improved over the last month, they still are the 25th ranked rush defense.

  • 23: Matt Breida ov 47.5 yards
  • This prop has been hitting most of the time. Last week, Breida hit the over against the Seahawks at home, and the 49ers are playing teams tough, especially at home. The Bears are going to be sitting some guys on defense that are banged up...Breida should have enough room to get over 47.5.

  • 23: Dalvin Cook ov 77 yards
  • The new offensive coordinator made it pretty clear the Vikings are going to stress the running game. Last week the Vikings rushed for over 200 yards, and Detroit is dealing with some injuries on the defensive line. Minnesota should be able to control the ball, and run with Dalvin Cook all game long.

  • 23: Robert Foster ov 3.5 rec
  • Love the value of +160 on this prop. Last week against Detroit, he had 4 catches for over 108 yards. The week before that he had 7 catches for over 100 yards. He's clearly Josh Allen's favorite receiver, and in a game that the Bills will be close to or behind the Patriots on the scoreboard, they're going to have to throw.

  • 22: Vikings -5.5
  • 22: Eagles -2.5
  • 22: Bears -4
  • 22: Chargers -4.5
  • 22: Seahawks +2.5
  • 22: Lamar Jackson ov 68 yards rushing
  • If you're not a believer in the Lamar Jackson passing game (I am not a believer) then you believe that he will continue running the ball, and I think that's what happens today. The Chargers are a top 10 passing defense, so I see a lot of "tuck the ball and run" from Lamar today. He's been over 68 yards rushing every game he's started, so I'll continue to keep playing this until teams prove they can stop his rushing.

  • 22: Lamar Jackson under 168.5 yards passing
  • The last 3 games, Lamar has not been throwing the ball downfield with any consistency. The last 3 games, he's thrown for 147, 131, and 125 yards. The Chargers are a good defense against the pass, they rank 8th, and on a short week I don't see how the Ravens improve this passing game.

  • 16: Andrew Luck ov 278.5 yards passing
  • Quite a few things I like about this play. First, I’ll start with the Colts offense. People can point to the Jacksonville game where they scored 0 points, but that’s an outlier game. People will focus on that, but I’m willing to throw it out and chalk it up to a bad game. Since the bye week, excluding the Jaguars game Luck has thrown for 285, 297, 343, 399, and 267 yards. Now lets look at the Cowboys defense, who has been really good recently. They had their best game of the year versus New Orleans where they held Drew Brees to 127 yards. But last week against an Eagles team who is almost eliminated, and Carson Wentz who was hurt they gave up 228 yards passing, 3 tds and no ints. The week before New Orleans they gave 268 yards to Colt McCoy, and before that 291 yards to Matt Ryan. But if you look at the rushing yards, that’s where the real improvement has come from. Only 80 yards rushing by the Falcons, Only 82 by the Redskins, only 65 by the Saints, and only 40 from the Eagles. So when we talk about the Cowboys D getting better, it’s really been the rushing defense that’s gotten better. I think Luck and Frank Reich move the ball through the air today, and get over 278.5.

  • 16: Lamar Jackson ov 66.5 yards rushing
  • At some point a defense will slow down Lamar Jackson’s running but I don’t think this is the week. Since he’s become the starter he’s rushed for over 70 yards every week, and what I think makes his rushing so elusive is that the majority of the running yards aren’t on called plays. They’re on improvised runs, which I believe is much harder to defend. Tampa is below average as the 19th ranked rush defense…I don’t think they slow Jackson down under the total.

  • 16: Joe Mixon ov 80.5 yards rushing
  • Even though the Bengals have been struggling, Mixon has been able to rush the ball. Three straight games over the 80 yards rushing mark, and today he goes up against the 31st ranked rush defense.

  • 16: Doug Martin ov 56.5 yard rushing
  • As much grief as we’ve given John Gruen, the offense has started to click a little bit. Derek Carr has been playing good, and they’ve been committed to ball security and to running the ball. They were able to rush against a good Ravens defense for over 70 yards (Ravens give up on 3.8 yards a carry), and they only rushed for 56 yards against the Steelers (who give up only 4.0 yards a carry). But against the Chiefs 2 weeks ago, (the 27th ranked rush defense the Raiders rushed for over 160 yards. This week they get a Bengals team who’s season is over, and who ranks dead last in rushing defense giving up 4.8 yards a carry.

  • 15: Packers +6
  • 15: Patriots -2.5
  • 15: Seahawks -4.5
  • 15: Titans +2.5
  • 15: Colts -3
  • 15: Nick Chubb ov 75.5 yards
  • The Broncos are really struggling with personnel and injuries. With Emannuel Sanders out, it’s hard to see where the offense is going to come from, and that helps the Browns. In games that the Browns are leading or are close in, they lean on the run game. Against a good Panthers D, Chubb averaged 5.1 yards per carry, in a win. Against the Bengals, he was given 28 carries in a game they won. In a game they got blown out by the Texans, Chubb only got 9 carries. Against the Falcons, in a game they won, Chubb rushed for 176 yards. I don’t see the Broncos blowing out the Browns, but there is a chance the Browns get to a lead and milk the clock behind Chubb. If the game is close, or a lead for the Browns, Chubb will be the focal point of the offense.

  • 13: Mike Williams ov 42.5 yards receiving
  • With Gordon and Ekler out, that's two major weapons on offense for the Chargers, and it's two receiving targets gone. Between both of them, that's over 7 catches a game gone. The Chiefs are dead last in defending yards passing giving up 290 a game. Mike Williams should have plenty of opportunity, and he has 3 out of 4 games in a row with over 42 yards passing, and that was with the weapons missing tonight against better passing defenses.

  • 09: Saquon Barkley over 81 yards
  • Just going to keep riding this guy. Three straight games well over 100 yards rushing. And with Odell out, they are going to lean on him even more today.

  • 09: Josh Allen ov 41.5 yards rushing.
  • Josh Allen is really really good at running the ball. Not so great throwing it right now. But in the 2 games since he's come back from injury he's run for 99 yards and 135 yards. The Jet's gave up 43 yards rushing to Mariota on only 4 attempts.

  • 09: Alvin Kamara ov 60.5 yards rushing
  • Cowboys dominated the Saints last week, but that game looks like the outlier. Before that he rushed for over 60 yards in 4 out of 5 games. The Bucs run game has really been getting shredded. Over 100 yards to the Redskins, Saquon Barkley had 142 yards rushing, Matt Brieda 106, and Christian McCafferey 106 yards.

  • 09: Christian McCafferey over 81.5 yards rushing
  • The last 2 games McCafferey has been the central part of the offense for the Panthers, and it makes sense with Cam's shoulder injury. He rushed for 125 yards against the Seahawks and 106 yards against the Buccanneers. The Browns run defense has not been good the last couple weeks. Over 100 yards given up to the Bengals, and Lamar Miller was over 100 yards rushing for the game.

  • 08: Chiefs -6.5
  • 08: Rams -3
  • 08: Bills -3
  • 08: Giants -3.5
  • 08: Colts +5
  • 01: Colts -4
  • 01: Steelers -3.5
  • 01: Falcons -1
  • 01: Giants +5.5
  • 01: New England -5

- November

  • 24: Colts team total over 29
  • The Colts offense is healthy, and they are firing on all cylinders. Offensive line hasn't allowed a sack in 5 games, and last game Andrew Luck was hit 0 times. Give him all that time, and he carves up just about anybody in the league. Against the Titans, they scored 38 points. Against the Jaguars, 29 points. Raiders 42 points, Bills 37 points, Jets 42 points. The Dolphins right now can't stop anyone. Gave up 31 to the Packers, 42 to the Texans, 28 to the Bears, 27 to the Bengals, and 38 to the Patriots. Love this play.

  • 24:
  • 24: Giants +6
  • 24: Steelers -3
  • 24: Packers +3.5
  • 24: Panthers -3.5
  • 17: Chiefs +3.5
  • 17: Vikings +2
  • 17: Panthers -4
  • 17: Texans -3
  • 17: Colts -2
  • 10: Eagles -6.5
  • 10: Falcons -6
  • 10: Seahawks
  • 10: PAtriots -6.5
  • 10: Chargers -9.5
  • 07: All To Win ML - Falcons, Saints, Patriots, Packers, Chiefs, Chargers
  • $100 bet wins $350

  • 03: Minnesota -4.5
  • 03: Pittsburgh +3
  • 03: Kansas City -8
  • 03: Tennessee +5.5
  • 03: Houston +1

- October

  • 27: Rams -9.5
  • 27: Jaguars +3
  • 27: Giants pk
  • 27: Lions -3
  • 27: Jets +8
  • 20: Bengals +6.5
  • 20: Saints +2.5
  • 20: Dolphins +3.5
  • 20: Bears +3
  • 20: Jets +3.5
  • 13: Chiefs +3.5
  • 13: Cowboys +3
  • 13: Dolphins +4
  • 13: Jets -2
  • 13: Bengals -2.5
  • 06: Saints -6.5
  • 06: 49ers -4
  • 06: Bills +5.5
  • 06: Seahawks +8.5
  • 06: Browns +3

- September

  • 29: Cleveland Browns
  • 29: New Orleans Saints
  • 29: Kansas City Chiefs
  • 29: Atlanta Falcons
  • 29: Houston Texans
  • 23: Falcons
  • 23: Chiefs
  • 23: Broncos
  • 23: Lions
  • 23: Cowboys
  • 16: Tennessee- NO PAY
  • The original line on Wednesday was Texans pick em.  But with the Marcus Mariota injury news, the line is now Tennesse +2.5  This play is a stay away.

  • 16: Dallas -3
  • 16: Chiefs +4
  • This line has moved in the direction of the Chiefs.  Great value now.

  • 16: Jaguars +1
  • 16: Buccanneers +3.5
  • 08: Colts -2.5 ov Bengals
  • 08: Raiders +4.5 ov Rams
  • 08: Bills+7.5 ov Bengals
  • 08: 49ers +6.5 ov Vikings
  • 08: Patriots -6.5 ov Texans

2017

- December

  • 17: 49ers -2 vs Titans
  • 17: Patriots -3 at Steelers
  • 17: Rams +2 at Seahawks
  • 17: * only 3 picks this week because two of the picks were the Chargers and Chiefs who played each other.
  • 08: Vikings -2.5 at Panthers
  • Vikings still aren't getting the respect they deserve in my opinion.  They've covered 7 straight games, and last week the Panthers looked tired.  They got pushed around.  The Vikings are looking at a playoff run, and their defense is nasty.  


    *Wrote the above yesterday, and today (Friday) Funchess didn't practice, and the Panthers won't have Shaq Thompson as well.  Makes me like the pick even better.

  • 08: Jets -1/pk at Broncos
  • The Broncos have given up, they’ve fallen apart, their quarterbacks are throwing more passes to the other team than they are their own team.  They lost by 26 to the Dolphins.  And against the Jets it’s a pickem?  The Jets beat the Chiefs last week, if they can beat the Chiefs, they can beat the Broncos.

  • 08: Packers -3 at Browns
  • Bet against the Brown every week.  9-3 this year.

  • 08: Patriots first halve spread at Dolphins
  • This bet has been a big winner recently, and I'll keep playing it.  

  • 03: Chargers -13.5 vs Browns
  • We bet against the Browns every week.

  • 03: Patriots -5.5 first half at Bills
  • Patriots, always well prepared, start off strong. Favorite play of the week.  Listen to the last 5 games now that the patriots have it figured out, and are hitting their stride, how much they’ve outscored teams in the first half.  Outscored the Dolphins by 11 first half, 17 against Raiders, 18 against the Broncos, 8 against the Chargers, 17 against Falcons.  I’m playing Patriots first half big for all meaningful games they have this year.

  • 03: Vikings +3
  • Vikings have won all 4 road games with Case Keenum.  Really surprised to see them as the underdog here.

  • 03: Eagles -4.5
  • Eagles have covered 8 games in a row, and are smashing teams.  Seattle's defense is decimated, and the Eagles front 7 should feast on Seattles offensive line.

- November

  • 25: Bengals -8 vs Browns
  • We bet against the Browns every week.

  • 25: Saints +2.5 at Rams
  • New Orleans Saints +3 at some shops, I’ll take them to win straight up.

    Let’s look at the Rams wins this year.  Home Colts 46-9 week 1, 41-39 at 49ers, 35-30 at Cowboys that’s a good win, 27-17 at Jaguars, 33-0 at Cardinals game where Palmer got hurt, 51-17 at Giants, 33-7 home to Texans and Tom Savage.  Let’s look at the losses.  27-20 home Redskins, 16-19 home to Seahawks, last week 24-7 at Vikings.  To me the Rams look like front runners.  When they win they have scored over 27 points every time.  When they’ve lost they’ve scored 20, 10, and 7.  I see one good win, the Saints just have good things happening to them, and I think last week the Rams got exposed.  Stop the deep ball, slow down Gurley…give them everything else underneath.  I think the Saints can do that, I'll take them.

  • 19: Jaguars -7.5
  • Bet against the Browns every week.

  • 12: Lions -11.5
  • Just betting against the Browns every week.  Betting against the Browns for the last 3 years has been hitting at 65%.  Basically, you bet against the Browns every week...if they happen to cover, bet them bigger next week.

- October

  • 28: Vikings -10.5 ov Browns
  • Betting against Browns Every week.

  • 28: Cowboys -1 at Redskins
  • Last 3 games Cowboys are averaging 6.5 yards per play, which is a massive number.  Zeke will be playing this week, and the Cowboys defense is getting healthy.  Redskins giving up over 24 points a game, so their defense is not fantastic.  One of the things I don’t like about Washington’s offense is that they don’t have a go to play or player.  Terrell Pryor has been a huge disappointment, and Josh Doctson is transitioning into a good player, but Dallas has an established quarterback who can make a play, an established running back who can make a play, and an established wide receiver who can make a play.  Cowboys pass rush seemed to come alive.

  • 28: Colts at Bengals under 41
  • Where do the points come from?  Colts are 28th in yards per game, Bengals are 29th.  Bengals are pretty good on defense only allowing 289 yards per game, and at Cincinnati I don’t know how the Colts are going to score touchdowns.  Both teams are outside the top 24 in passing stats, and both are outside the top 20 in rushing stats.  The Colts have real dissension on offense when TY Hilton called out the offensive line, I don’t think they’re going to be on the same page, so I just don’t see where touchdowns are going to come from.

  • 28: 49ers at Eagles over 46
  • Cashed an over bet last week with San Fran, I’m going to do it again this week.  San Fran giving up almost 27 points a game, and Philly is averaging scoring above 28 points a game.  Philly at 6 yards per play, I don’t think they’ll have any trouble moving the ball.  Last week the 49ers only scored one touchdown, but it goes to my point about a young quarterback wanting to prove himself, and garbage points count, and are big for the overs.  I don’t see San Fran’s offense giving up, even if they are down big, so I like this total to go over.  Philly 5-2 overs to unders this year.

  • 28: Houston +5.5 at Seattle
  • Upset Special


    Since Deshaun Watson started, they’ve scored 13 at Cincinnati in a win…33 at New England, 57 against Tennessee, 34 against Kansas City in a loss, and 33 against 33.  Watson has lost against Belicheck and Brady in his 2nd start ever by 3 points, and lost to Kansas City by one score.  The team is rested, and the Seahawks beat the Giants 24-7, Rams 16-10, and the Colts 46-18…not super impressive in their last 3 games.  I think the Seahawks offensive line is suspect, and that the Texans are going to come in ready to play.

  • 21: Titans -5.5 ov Browns
  • Betting against Browns every week.  Browns averaging 15.7 points per game, second to last.  Titans averaging 24.3 points per game.

  • 21: Saints -5.5 at Packers
  • In the last 3 games, the Saints defense have given up 13 points at Carolina, 0 points in England against Miami, and in the 3rd quarter last week they were up 45-10 agains the Lions before the Lions ripped off a bunch of garbage time points.  Packers are obviously without Rodgers, and I think he’s the most important person to his team this year.  Packers give up 22.5 points a game, and that’s with Rodgers controlling the offense, and keeping his defense off the field, and that’s not been against great teams.  Vikings, Cowboys, Bears, Bengals, Seahawks.  I think we’re about to see that Rodgers is not worth 5-6 points to this team, but more like 9-10 points.  I don’t think this roster is very good without Rodgers, and we’re about to see it.

  • 21: Panthers at Bears over 40.5
  • Bears are averaging giving up over 24 points a game, Panthers are giving up 20 points a game, Kuechly is looking at being out for another concussion.  When Kuechly is out, the Panthers are a different defense, and the Bears can move the ball with the run game averaging 136 yards a game.  The defense for the Panthers gave up 3 points to the 49ers, and 3 points to the Bills.  But 34 to the Saints, 30 to the Patriots, 24 to the Lions, and 28 to the Eagles.  The last 3 games the Panthers offense has been getting better scoring 23 against the Eagles, 27 against the Lions, and 33 against the Patriots.

  • 21: Jaguars at Colts over 43.5
  • Colts are giving up over 32 points a game, and Jaguars are actually scoring 26 points a game, so I don’t think the Jags will struggle going the ball, especially with Leonard Fournette, and even Bortles might be good here since the Colts are the second worse pass defense.  Jags are a good pass defense, but they’re the second worse run defense, and the Colts run for almost 100 yards a game, so I think both these teams are going to be able to move the ball and score some points.

  • 21: Cowboys at 49ers over 46…now its 48.5
  • Both these defenses sucks.  Cowboys giving up over 26 points a game, 49ers giving up over 24 points a game.  There’s an angle that I like, and that’s a backup quarterback with something to prove that the opposing team doesn’t have tape on to score points.  The defense doesn’t know his tendencies, or which receiver he likes, or what plays he likes.  The other thing is that this quarterback wants to prove himself, so he’s extra motivated, especially at the end of games if they’re down.  They love garbage time points.  Zeke is going to play this week, so the Cowboys will put up points big time…I love this total to go way over.

  • 12: Bears +7 at Ravens
  • The Ravens are averaging scoring 18 points a game, their offensive line is beat up, Flacco looks out of sorts, their running back position has no continuity, and as good as their defense is perceived they are still giving up around 20 points a game.  Chicago has a real running game, and Trubisky looked competent last week against a really good Vikings defense.  He only completed 12 passes, but he kept them in the game, the team ran for over 100 yards, and the Bears defense wasn’t too terrible.  They gave up one long run to McKinnon, but take that run out and McKinnon averaged 2.8 yards a carry.  I don’t see the Ravens blowing anyone out, I’ll take the 7 points.

  • 12: Chiefs -4.5 ov Steelers
  • The Steelers aren’t right. Last week I took the Jags +10 against the Steelers because Big Ben not happy, national anthem controversy, Antonio Brown mad…and they went out and got smoked.  Now I’m supposed to believe they’re gonna go on the road to the hardest stadium to play at, and get it all together against the best team in the league?  No way.  Here’s the Steelers schedule.  Win at Browns, Win against Vikings, loss at Chicago, win at Ravens, loss to Jaguars.  I’m not impressed.  I don’t really need to go over the Chiefs, but in the all important stat of yards per play, the Chiefs are number 1 with 6.6 yards per play.  Steelers ranked 23rd.

  • 12: Dolphins at Falcons under 46.5
  • Dolphins have scored a total of 22 points in their last 3 games.  Cutler looks terrible, now they go at Falcons, Falcons coming off a bye, their defense is rested, and the Falcons are a little banged up on offense.  They don’t have Muhammed Sanu, Julio Jones a little banged up, I can see Atlanta depending on their running game, as well as Miami which means the clock keeps ticking.  Crazy little stat here, Dolphins defense only giving up 16.8 points a game, only 241 yards a game.  I don’t see a lot of points here.

  • 12: Giants at Broncos under 39.5
  • Someone explain to me how the Giants are going to score points.  Without Odell Beckham in week 1 they scored 3 points.  Against the Cowboys.  Week 2 Odell kinda coming back they scored 10 points.  Odell gets healthy they scored 24, 23, 22.  Now they lose Odell, Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard.  And Eli gets to stand back there and stand in the pocket and try and throw dump offs and screens to Shane Vereen all game against Vonn Miller and that defense, who’s coming off a bye and is rested.  Giants Defense is actually pretty good, they’ve played the Eagles, Bucs and Chargers and haven’t given up more than 27 points, I expect Denver’s D to smother the Giants, and the Broncos offense to run the ball, and get out with a win in a low scoring game.

  • 12: 49ers at Redskins over 46.5
  • The 49ers defense has played 160 plays in the last 2 games, this is their 3rd road game in a row, they’re going to be exhausted, their best defensive player is hurt, and they gave up 26 points to the Colts last week, now they get a Redskins offense that is rested coming off a bye, and they’re 7th in the league with yards per play.  The Redskins defense gives up 22 points a game, they aren’t great, the 49ers already give up 24 points a game, there’s no way they hold the Redskins offense in check, this has all the makings of the Redskins scoring a bunch of points the 49ers offense trying to catch up and maybe some garbage points.

  • 07: Bills v Bengals Under 39.5
  •  Buffalo is number 1 in Defense DVOA.  Cincinnati is number 9 in DVOA.  How are these two offenses?  Cincinnati is 6th worse in points per game scored…Buffalo is 10th worse.  Cincinnati averaging scoring 16 points a game, Buffalo giving up 13.5 points a game…Buffalo averaging 18 points a game, Cincinnati giving up 17 points a game.  All the makings of a field goal fest here.  Give me the under.

  • 07: Browns v Jets Ovwer 39.5
  • Both these teams are in the bottom half in defense.  I know they aren’t great on offense, but the Jets have scored 20 points or more the last 3 games…their points per game are low because they played a great Buffalo defense in week 1, the Browns points per game are low because they’ve played a good Bengals defense and a great Ravens defense in week 2….against the Colts?  28 points.  Favorite play of the week…Jets-Browns over.

  • 07: Jaguars v Steelers-Jags +10
  • Jaguars getting 10 points…I’ll take it.  Steelers are looking like a team not buttoned up.  Antonio Brown throwing tantrums on the sideline, Big Ben complaining about it on radio, the team not united on the Anthem bullshit, and I have this theory.  Don’t bet against Blake Bortles with these big spreads and get fucked by a Yellow Starburst…bet on Blake Bortles to throw that meaningless touchdown in the 4th quarter to get the spread.  Jaguars lost to the Jets last week, that inflates this line…I’ll take the Jags and the 10 points.

  • 07: Panthers v Lions-Lions -1
  • Cam looked great last week against the Patriots defense…everyone looks great against the Pats defense, I’m not buying that Cam is back, they beat San Francisco, the Bills at home in that weird 9-3 game, the lost to New Orleans at home, and then won against the 2-2 patriots who are struggling, so I’m not impressed with any of their wins.  Meanwhile the Lions beat the Cardinals by 12, the Giants by 14, a tough Vikings team by 7, and their only loss was a one possession game against the Falcons, and they should’ve won it if the refs would’ve called it correctly that Golden Tate scored the touchdown late in the game.  KJ…the spread right now is Lions -1…whats the spread if the Lions get the win against the Falcons, and they’re 4-0?

  • 07: Upset Special-Bills over Bengals
  •  Bills +3 to beat the Bengals outright.  The Bills have an elite defense, Tyrod Taylor and the running/short passing game with McCoy seems to give teams problems, and the Bengals lost to the Ravens 20-0, lost to the Texans 13-9, lost to the Packers 27-24, and then beat the Browns.  Yay.  Bengals only 4.8 yards per play, and that was inflated when they played the horrible Browns.  Love the Bills to pull the upset.

- September

  • 15: Draftkings Likes...QBs
  • Brady 7900

    Brees 7700

    Carson Palmer 6000

    Phillip Rivers 5800

    Joe Flacco  5200


    Normally I don't like high priced quarterbacks, but it's hard to argue against Brady and Brees this week in what looks to be an obvious shootout.  

  • 15: Draftkings Likes...RBs
  • This is the positions where you can get away from the high priced guys and get some value with lower priced guys playing bad defenses.


    Jay Ajayi 6,400 at the Chargers (Chargers short week)

    Marshawn Lynch 6,000 against the Jets

    Mike Gillisxie 5,700...at New Orleans

    Terrance West 5100... against Cleveland

    Thomas Rawls  4600... at home against San Fran

    Jacquizz Rogers  4400... at home against Chicago

    Tarik Cohen 4,100...great in ppr formats, great price.

  • 15: Draftkings Likes...WRs
  • Wide range of guys to use this week.  Brandin Cooks my favorite over 8000 based on matchups.  Fitzgerald because of matchups, Diggs because he looks to be Bradfords favorite receiver, and incredible value on Kupp who looks like he's going to catch a lot of passes this year.


    Brandin cooks 8200 at New Orleans

    Jordy Nelson 7900 (always under valued) 

    Larry Fitzgerald 6500 against the Colts

    Steffon Diggs 6100  

    Cooper Kupp  4100

  • 15: Draftkings likes...TEs
  • I'll play Ertz every week at prices like this in ppr.  Jesse James a flier if you're looking for a cheapie, and Charles Clay the best value at 3,000.

    Zach Ertz  5300...last week 8 for 93

    Jesse James  3200  (he’s not going to catch 2 td’s every week, but he caught 6 passes last week)

    Charles Clay  3,000

  • 15: Green Bay +2.5, +3 at Atlants
  • Atlanta barely covered the spread at Chicago last week, should’ve lost outright if Jordan Howard would’ve caught the ball.  I didn’t see anything that blew me away from the Atlanta offense, and this goes back to the Super Bowl hangover.  There are some teams and quarterbacks and trends that you can go back several years and look at, but I think Atlanta is going to miss Kyle Shanahan a lot, and there’s just a dark cloud hanging over them.  Last week Atlanta ranked 9th in DVOA against Chicago…Green Bay was 10th against an elite Seattle defense.  Green Bay’s defensive DVOA was 32 points better than Atlanta.  I also thought that Ty Montgomery was awesome last week, and that could be the missing piece for this offense.  Their running game was so bad and injured last year, that Ty Montgomery as a wide receiver became the running back.  He’s had the entire off season to get ready, I just really like this year.  And we're getting points with Green Bay here.  

  • 15: Minnesota +6 at Pittsburg
  • Waaaaay too many points here.  Anytime you have a defense that’s a good as the Vikings defense, you’re probably going to be in every game.  Bradford looked good, Dalvin cook looked good, Stefan Diggs looked good…I take that with a grain of salt because it was the Saints defense, but the Steelers couldn’t put the Browns away.  The Vikings were really good last year, and it looks like they’ve just gotten better.  I’ll happily take the Vikings an an entire touchdown.

  • 15: Seattle -14 vs. San Francisco
  • Nobody in their right mind would take a team -14 points…but I will.  The 49ers were really bad last week, and that was at home…against a Panthers team where Cam Newton looked shaky.  Seattle is going to need a win, and I don’t see how a 49ers team who scored 3 points last week is going to keep anywhere near the Seahawks, and without Ruben Foster, I don't see how they slow down the offense.

  • 15: Cardinals -7 at Colts
  • Late addition after I saw we could get -7 with the Cardinals.  The Colts average 8 points a game without Andrew Luck.  They don't have their center, and Arizona's defense is good, despite what the Lions did to them in the 4th quarter last week.  The Colts offense is far from the Lions offense.  Jared Goff tore up the defense, and Carson Palmer should do the same.  

  • 15: Upset Pick: Detroit ov New York Giants
  • Love the way the Lions offense looked as last year went along, and love what we saw last week.  What didn't we love?  Eli Manning with Odell Beckham.  Last week was embarrassing, and while I don't think the Giants will be that bad, they haven't scored over 20 points in the last 6 games, and their offensive line is just that...offensive.  Giants tend to be a better road team than away team...love the Lions +3, and also love them to pull the upset, even though I don't see it as an upset.

  • 07: Los Angeles Rams -3 vs. the Colts
  • In most preseason rankings, their Defense is ranked in the bottom 4…and their offensive line is ranked in the bottom 10.  That combination isn’t good for an on the road start to begin the year, and they come into this game with Scott Tolzein at the helm, and Vontae Davis out with an injury.  I’m no Gared Goff fan, but I see an advantage at QB, Offensive, and Defensive lines for the Rams.  That’s good enough for me to lay the 3 points at home.

  • 07: Atlanta at Chicago over 49.5
  • Both these teams have defenses that look like they could be in the bottom half of the league….I don’t think Atlanta’s offense is going to slow down after losing Kyle Shanahan, especially against a bad Bears defense, and the Chicago Bears offensive line is really good.  Like top 5 good.  Jordan Howard should be able to move the ball…I know Mike Glennon isn’t good, but I can see Atlanta getting over 30 points here, and I think Chicago is good enough to get over 20 points…that gets us the over 50.5.

  • 07: Houston -3 1st half vs Jacksonville
  • Houston’s defense is Super Bowl caliber…Blake Bortles makes his living throwing meaningless 4th quarter yards and touchdowns, but when the game starts and teams are playing equal, he’s terrible.  I know they’re going to try and run the ball a ton with Fournette, but Houstons defense is really good.  I see more struggles for Jacksonville this year in the first halves.

  • 07: Every Week Parlay
  • Every Week I’m going to parlay the Patriots ML, and whoever plays the Jets.  This week that parlay is -140.  As a bonus, I’m also going to parlay the Patriots ML, whoever plays the Jets, and whoever plays the Colts without Andrew Luck.  That parlay pays +150 this week.


    Patriots-Bills ML Parlay -140

    Patriots-Bills-Rams Parlay +150

F1

2019

- March

  • 29: Lewis Hamilton to win
  • Gotta get him before qualifying at plus money.

  • 15: Lewis Hamilton to win
  • get this play in at +175 now. He was fast during second practice and if he gets the pole, he’ll be -200 or worse to win.

- January

  • 19: Parlay...Dillashaw ov Cejudo, Hardy ov Whoever the fuck he's fighting

2018

- December

  • 29: Ilir Latifi ov Corey Anderson
  • Latifi is a straight up mauler. Dude is stocky strong, and has a motor that doesn't stop. Corey Anderson has 2 straight wins, but against weak opponents. Just looking at the highlights, Latifi looks like the more powerful fighter by far with devastating punches and crazy strong takedowns.

  • 29: Parlay Megan Anderson-Cat Zigano over 2.5 rounds and Walt Harris ov Andrei Arlovski
  • Pays +125. Arlovski is done as a legit fighter. He's won 1 fight since 2016. He's just collecting paychecks at this point. Harris has won his last 2 fights, and is coming off a TKO performance in June. Zigano has had her last 3 fights go the distance, and Anderson's last fight went to the judges against Holly Holm.

- October

  • 19: Lewis Hamilton to win

- June

  • 28: Hamilton to win +100, and Vettel to win at +230`
  • The thinking here is one of them will be on the pole and will get out front, and the other won't be able to pass.  If we bet the same amount on both, if Hamilton wins we break even, if Vettel wins we turn a profit.

  • 28: Ocon ov Perez
  • 07: Lewis Hamilton to Win

- May

  • 26: Esteban Ocon top 6
  • 12: Lewis Hamilton To win
  • 12: Sebastian Vettel To win Pole
  • 10: Sebastian Vettel to win Pole

- April

  • 27: Lewis Hamilton To Win
  • Hamilton is behind Vettel in the points race, and this is a track he did great at last year.  He didn't win because of the crazy safety car circumstance, but he was the dominant car.  I expect Mercedes to come out strong with a car for Hamilton that has great race pace.

  • 15: Lewis Hamilton to Win +350
  • 15: Lewis Hamilton ov Kimi Raikkoneen
  • 07: Vettel to win +185
  • Again, incredible value with Vettel here.  Hamilton just got assessed a 5 grid penalty for the start of the race, so it's going to be hard for him to battle through traffic.  His car isn't built to come from behind, and as we saw last race, he struggles if he's not out front.  If Vettel gets the pole, and gets out to a lead, it's going to be hard for Hamilton to reel in Vettel on a track that the Ferrari's have looked strong at.

  • 07: Vettel to win Pole +300
  • Ridiculous odds for the top Ferrari car to win the pole after being dominant in P2.  P2 is generally reserved for race setup, but Ferrari was fast in the single laps, and thats what qualifying is all about.  Shocked to get such great value here.

- March

  • 24: Lewis Hamilton to Win
  • 24: Vettel ov Raikkonen

2017

- October

  • 29: Bovada-Force India to both finish top 10 (Mexican Grand Prix)
  • Been cashing this one a lot, but you have to have a Bovada account.  

  • 07: Ricciardo ov Raikkonen
  • Kimi just isn't getting it done this year, and now that he has to start from 10th, and Ricciardo is starting third, the only way Kimi finishes ahead of him is if he runs into trouble, which Ricciardo has been pretty good at avoiding.  It's very juicy at -225, but I have no problem playing it.

- September

  • 28: Lewis Hamilton to win -120
  • 17: Parlay: Vettel ov Kimi-Hamilton ov Bottas
  • Pretty simple here.  The two drivers fighting for the championship are Vettel and Hamilton.  Mercedes will have driver orders to make sure Hamilton finishes as high as he can, and that includes having Bottas pull over.  Same goes for Vettel, but Vettel should be ahead of Kimi so that shouldn't be an issue.  My only worry is that Max gets over zealous on the start, and takes out Vettel in a cowboy-esque move, but Vettel is smart enough to know when to get out of harms way.  If Vettel gets out in front, it should be smooth sailing for him, and with Hamilton lined up next to Bottas on the start, look for Bottas to let Hamilton get in front of him and challenge the drivers ahead.

- August

  • 26: Sergio Perez top 10 (Belgian Grand Prix)
  • It's juicy, but Perez qualified 8th and always has good race pace.  As long as he gets a clean start, he should be good to go.

  • 26: Ocon ov Alonso
  • Fernando's car has been a disgrace this year.  No reason to think his car is going to be any different today.

- July

  • 15: Perez ov Hulkenberg
  • Love this play.  We are getting this matchup, and a good price because Hulkenberg qualified just ahead of Perez, and has been faster in practice.  Perez doesn’t show speed in practice, but the Force India cars always have race pace.  In Austria Perez was slow in practice, and easily finished ahead of Hulkenberg.  In Azerbaijan, he was slow in practice, and was way ahead of Hulkenberg before he crashed.  In fact, that is the ONLY race that Hulkenberg has finished ahead of Perez this year.

  • 15: Ocon ov Hulkenberg
  • Love this play as well.  Everything above is true about this play.  Ocon finished ahead of Hulkenberg in every race except Azerbaijan (where he wrecked) and Bahrain, which was early in the year.

  • 07: Vettel to win +165 5dimes (Austrian Grand Prix)
  • Hamilton is looking at a 5 grid penalty to start the race.  If Vettel gets on the pole and gets out front, I don't see Lewis being able to catch him.  The practice times are very close, and if Vettel gets the clean air, and Lewis gets stuck behind Kimi or Bottas to start, it's going to be next to impossible for him to catch Vettel.  Love the odds here.

  • 07: Esteban Ocon top 10 -188 bovada (Austrian Grand Prix)
  • Every race he hasn't been in a wreck in he's been top 10.  The Force India cars have had great race pace every time this season, and I don't think him and Perez will wreck each other again as I'm sure the team made very clear to them this week.  He's starting around Hamilton, Perez and Sainz, so I think he should be able to get a clean start.

- June

  • 24: Vettel ov Raikkonen 5dimes (Azerbaijan Grand Prix)
  • Vettel should get around Kimi either on the start, or early in the race.  He's a better driver, and Ferrari will give out team orders to get Vettel as many points as possible.

- May

  • 24: Sergio Perez and Esteban Ocon 5dimes (Monaco Grand Prix)
  • Keeping it very simple this year in Formula 1.  Perez and Ocon continue their streak of top 10s.  Qualifying is important here because passing is tough, but they have had the race pace every race, so if they qualify good I expect a solid run.

  • 24: Qualifying Parlay 5dimes (Monaco Grand Prix)
  • Hamilton ov Bottas

    Vettel ov Raikonen

    Perez ov Ocon


    Reason behind this play is that all the faves have been faster in both practices, and they've all been consistently faster all year long.  This track is pretty straight forward.  The lines are the same as they've always been, there shouldn't be any surprises, so I'm betting the favorites here all come through.  Not a huge play, but it pays around +125.

  • 10: Sergio Perez and Esteban Ocon Top 10 5dimes (Spanish Grand Prix)
  • Perez is -200, Ocon is -135.  Both these guys have finished in the top 10 in every race this year.  I'll keep playing these all year long.  They have the pace in the race and the solid starts to keep finishing in the top 10 from here on out.

- April

  • 27: Sergio Perez -200 top 10 (Russian Grand Prix) 5dimes
  • I will play this matchup every race.  As long as he gets a clean start, and avoids nonsense in the race, he's going to be up there every time.

  • 27: Lewis Hamilton ov Kimi Raikkonen (Russian Grand Prix) 5dimes
  • Lewis is going for the win this week.  His practices haven't been great this week, but his pace in the race will be solid.  Kimi will be lucky to finish in the top 4.

  • 14: Bottas ov Kimi Qualifying
  • Bottas is in the better car, Kimi had problems in P1, and Bottas might be able to push for a pole position.  

  • 12: Sergio Perez Top 10 -150
  • Perez has been top 10 both races this year.  I'll keep taking this pick all year long.

  • 12: Hamilton to win -115
  • He looked fantastic last race, and the first race was a little weird where Vettel won.  There was some pit strategy involved, and I have a conspiracy theory about that race where they wanted someone else besides a Mercedes to win the first race of the year to get fans interested in the season, and make them think it's not going to be a Mercedes romp.  

  • 08: Parlay- Massa ov Hulkenberg, Vettel of Kimi (pays +102)
  • Not much description needed.  Vettel by far the superior Ferrari, and Massa's car is way better than Hulkenbergs.

  • 07: Valtteri Bottas top 3 -125
  • Hamilton, and Vettel are the two automatics, but I think Bottas is as well.  Kimi couldn't keep pace with him, and the Red Bulls are far behind.  Practice has been rained out, so I'm not sure Ferrari and Red Bull are going to make adjustments to get them ahead of Bottas.

  • 07: Sergio Perez top 10 -160
  • I really liked what I saw from Perez, and that Force India car.  Even Ocon made a top 10 finish.  Obviously, we expect to see Ricciardo in the top 10, but even if he finishes top 10, and everyone else does from Australia, that still leaves Perez in 8th.  Hopefully he gets off to a clean start.

- March

  • 25: Daniel Ricciardo top 6
  • He spun in practice, thus he's starting in 10th place, but Ricciardo is great at starts, and his car is a top 6 car.  As with all these bets, as long as he gets a clean start, he should work his way up to top 6.

    LOSER (What a tough one to swallow.  Ricciardo's engine seizes up before the start of the race.  If he doesn't race at all, the bet is refunded.  But the team gets the car running after 20 minutes, and he goes out and runs a few laps after race starts, then he retires the car, but technically the bet counts since he ran laps.  That one sucks.)

  • 25: Daniel Kyvat top 10
  • He qualified in the top 10, and the last 2 practices he was within the top 10.  Hopefully, he doesn't do anything stupid (which has been a problem with him in the past), but I see him running around the 8,9 place most of the race with his teammate.


    WINNER  (Got a break with Ricciardo and Grosjean going out.  If those guys stay in the race, I don't know if Kvyat finishes top 10.  But he ran in the position I thought he would all day.)

  • 23: Vettel to win +340
  • If there's one guy in the field to challenge Hamilton, it's Vettel.  We can get both at plus money right now.


    WINNER  (Big win for us to get the outright winner at +340.  Made this race profitable for us.)

  • 22: Lewis Hamilton to win
  • Until someone proves they can beat the Mercedes in a full race, I'm going to ride Hamilton.  The gap has apparently closed from Mercedes and Ferrari, but that was off season testing, and I think Mercedes wasn't giving all their secrets away.  


    LOSER  (Hamilton couldn't get around Verstappen on the first pit stop, and that was the end of the race for his wining chances.)

NASCAR

2019

- June

  • 26: Nascar picks for Chicago
  • William Byron ov Austin Dillon

    Kurt Busch ov Erik Jones

    Alex Bowman ov Aric Almirola

  • 19: To win Group E Alex Bowman
  • The group is Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, Michael McDowell, Ryan Newman.

    Alex Bowman is +250.

  • 19: Erik Jones ov Ryan Blaney
  • 19: Alex Bowman ov Paul Menard
  • 15: Aric Almirola ov Daniel Hemric
  • 10: Aric Almirola ov Erik Jones
  • 04: Kevin Harvick ov Martin Truex Jr
  • 01: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ov Ryan Newman

- May

  • 29: Jimmie Johnson ov Aric Almirola
  • 18: Erik Jones ov Ryan Blaney
  • 18: Denny Hamlin ov Austin Dillon
  • 11: Kyle Larson ov Ryan Blaney
  • 08: Byron ov Bowman
  • 08: Harvick ov Keselowski
  • 02: Martin Truex ov Brad Keselowski
  • 02: Chase Elliott ov Aric Almirola
  • 02: Clint Bowyer ov Ryan Blaney

- April

  • 13: Blaney ov Logano +170
  • 13: Newman ov Dibenedetto
  • 11: Clint Bowyer ov Erik Jones
  • 11: Ty Dillon ov Ryan Preece
  • 11: David Ragan ov Michael McDowell
  • 03: Ryan Blaney ov Kevin Harvick
  • 03: Aric Almirola ov Clint Bowyer
  • 03: Jimmie Johnson ov Erik Jones
  • 03: Clint Bowyer ov Erik Jones
  • 03: Ty Dillon ov Ryan Preece
  • 03: David Ragan ov Michael McDowell

- March

  • 28: William Byron ov Matt Dibenedetto
  • 28: Kevin Harvick ov Brad Keslelsowski
  • 28: Kurt Busch ov Denny Hamlin
  • 22: Rahm ov Day 2nd round
  • Several things I read today mentioned it looked like Day's back was tightening up. He's at +3...I think he might be ready to throw in the towel to get some time off.

  • 21: Kurt Busch ov Aric Almirola
  • Kurt loves these types of track. Always does well here, and consistently has finished ahead of Almirola.

  • 21: Ryan Blaney ov Denny Hamlin
  • Value play here at +135. Last year in the spring, Blaney led 145 laps, ran into a bit of trouble in the fall, but he was top 3 in the spring, so the price is too good to pass up.

  • 21: Joey Logano ov Martin Trues
  • Love the value at +100. Logano is good on this track, and has been really good this season

  • 17: Kevin Harvick ov Kyle Larson
  • 12: Clint Bowyer ov Chase Elliot
  • Going to continue to fade the Hendricks cars this year. Chase Elliot is the best Hendricks car on the two mile and half tracks this year, and he averaged a 13th place finish on those two tracks. Also, the last 2 years at this race, Bowyer averages a 6th place finish, Elliot 13th.

  • 10: Ryan Blaney ov Chase Elliot
  • 08: Kyle Busch ov Erik Jones
  • Get this play in quick guys. Kyle Busch loves this track. His average finish here over the last 6 races at Phoenix is 3rd. Last year he finished 1st and 2nd in two races here. Erik Jones average finish last year was 13th.

- February

  • 27: Bets Against Jimmie Johnson
  • Austin Dillon ov Jimmie Johnson

    Daniel Suarez ov Jimmie Johnson

    Ricky Stenhouse ov Jimmie Johnson

  • 27: Daniel Hemric ov Matt Dibenedetto
  • 20: Chase Elliot ov Clint Bowyer
  • 20: Brad Keselowski ov Kyle Larson
  • 20: Jimmie Johnson (Or Kurt Busch depending on your matchup) ov Ryan Blaney

2018

- November

  • 08: Jaime McMurray ov Paul Menard
  • 08: Chase Elliot ov Kyle Larson
  • 01: Martin Truex ov Kevin Harvick
  • 01: Alex Bowman ov Jimmie Johnson

- October

  • 28: Kurt Busch ov Ryan Blaney
  • 25: Chase Elliot ov Brad Keselowski
  • 20: Martin Truex ov Kevin Harvick
  • 18: Joey Logano +125 ov Ryan Blaney
  • 08: Chase Elliot ov Kyle Larson
  • 07: Kurt Busch ov Erik Jones

- September

  • 26: Brad Keselowski ov Chase Elliot
  • 26: Kyle Larson ov Ryan Blaney
  • 20: Chase Elliot ov Clint Bowyer
  • 05: Chase Elliot ov Erik Jones

- August

  • 16: Martin Truex ov Erik Jones
  • 16: Alex Bowman ov Ricky Stenhouse

- July

  • 27: Jimmie Johnson ov Daniel Suarez
  • 27: Kurt Busch ov Aric Almirola
  • 17: Chase Elliot ov Aric Almirola
  • 17: Kurt Busch ov Ryan Blaney
  • 13: Kyle Busch ov Kyle Larson
  • 13: Brad Keselowski ov Erik Jones

- June

  • 28: Joey Logano ov Ryan Blaney
  • 28: Paul Menard ov William Byron
  • 21: Brad Keselowski ov Ryan Blaney
  • 21: Kyle Busch ov Martin Truex Jr.
  • 07: Brad Keselowski ov Ryan Blaney
  • 07: Jaime McMurray ov Ryan Newman
  • 01: Brad Keselowski ov Ryan Blaney
  • 01: Erik Jones ov Denny Hamlin

- May

  • 25: Joey Logano ov Clint Bowyer
  • 25: Erik Jones ov Kurt Busch
  • 25: Kasey Kahne ov Ty Dillon
  • 17: Erik Jones ov Chase Elliot
  • 12: Joey Logano ov Denny Hamlin
  • 12: Darrell Wallace ov Kasey Kahne
  • 10: Joey Logano ov Denny Hamlin
  • 10: Joey Logano ov Denny Hamlin
  • 02: Clint Bowyer ov Ryan Blaney

- April

  • 27: Brad K ov Hamlin
  • These restrictor plate races are always tough, but Brad Keselowski has been on a tear this year.  He's sneak around these tracks, and has great loop data at Talledega.  His car is normally very strong here, so I expect him to be near the front and out of trouble.

  • 27: Jimmie ov Byron
  • Jimmie Johnson is the more experienced driver here and knows how to navigate his way around the traffic.  Experience is the key in the matchup.  Byron is going to be out of his element here, and I see Jimmie easily beating him.

  • 20: Brad Keselowski ov Chase Elliot
  • Chase Elliot wasn't very good at Richmond last year, averaging a 17th place finish in two races in 2017.  Brad ranks first in loop data at Richmond last year, and led 119 laps combined in both races last year.  Chase also hasn't been good on the short tracks this year.  I'll take Brad to compete for a win here.

  • 20: Joey Logano ov Erik Jones
  • Erik Jones has been a disappointment this year in my opinion.  He's averaging a 17th place finish at the short tracks (Martinsville, Bristol, Phoenix).  Logano has been pretty steady up around the top 10.  Jones was terrible last year at Richmond.  Averaged 22nd in two races.  Logano averaged a 1.5 place finish.  

  • 15: Kurt Busch ov Aric Almirola
  • 12: Kasey Kahne ov Darrell Wallace Jr
  • 12: Alex Bowman ov Austin Dillon
  • 05: Brad Keselowski ov Kyle Larson
  • Great value on the bet getting Brad K at plus money when he's been better at this track, and slighly better than Larson on the bigger tracks in loop data.

- March

  • 04: Clint Bowyer ov Ryan Blaney
  • Blaney was fast during qualifying, no doubt, but I'm not sure that translate to long race speed.  Clint Bowyer was really fast last week, and I think the Stewart-Haas cars are sneaky fast.  Not sure the books have caught up to this, and since Blaney is on the pole we get a great price at +135 here.  Bowyer was fine in qualifying, but I look for Blaney to fall back as the better cars show their strength in a long race.

  • 01: Kurt Busch ov Erik Jones
  • Kurt won us a bet last week, and looked really good.  Led laps, but more importantly stayed consistently in the top 7.  Didn't have any bad pit stops, didn't have any bad long runs, and while I expected him to be solid last week, he looked a little better than I even expected.  So I'll roll with him again over Erik Jones, who was good, but not great last week.  Never spent a lot of time inside the top 10, and doesn't seem to have a car as good as Kurts.

- February

  • 25: Kurt Busch ov Ryan Blaney
  • Really like the way Kurt finished off the last 3 bigger tracks in 2017, and I think it may take Blaney a few tracks to work out all the kinks with a new team.  Kurt was not great in practice, but looked much better in qualifying...Blaney didn't show speed at all except .

  • 25: Aric Almirola ov William Byron
  • Two drivers who have switched teams, but Almirola much more experienced, and I look for him to flourish with the best car he's ever had.  Byron is really young, and I know we've seen young guys succeed, but I don't see him being the Larson or Erik Jones type to come in and compete immediately.  His speed wasn't great this week, and I think he takes it easy the first few races to get acclimated.

2017

- November

  • 19: Kurt Busch ov Clint Bowyer
  • Bowyer has been a mess in the Chase, especially on the bigger tracks.  Loop data is atrocious for him as he has had multiple finishes outside the top 20.  Kurt has been way better on those tracks, and has been faster in practice, and in qualifying.  Not sure why Kurt is the underdog at +105, but I'm happy to take it.

  • 03: Chase Elliiot ov Kyle Larson
  • I'm not sure what has happened to Kyle Larson, but he's finishes just haven't been there in the Chase, especially on the bigger tracks.  Elliot has been really good, and should've won last week...he's got a great car, and he'll be needing a win to advance to the finals.

- October

  • 19: Jamie McMurray ov Kurt Busch
  • Pretty simple play here, McMurray better than Kurt on the 2 mile and a half tracks in the Chase, and better than Kurt at this track earlier this year.

  • 08: Erik Jones ov Ryan Blaney
  • This play was -150 before qualifying.  Jones missed inspection, and didn't qualify, so he's starting in the back, that's why the line is -110 now.  I love it.  Jones has been great on the bigger tracks, and been great recently on all the tracks...he'll move up quickly, and get ahead of Blaney by half way through the race.

- September

  • 28: Jones ov Blaney
  • See previous picks.  Jones just fantastic on short tracks with loop data, cashed the bet last week...going to keep betting it.

  • 21: Erik Jones ov Ryan Blaney
  • Lost Jones ov Blaney last week...I don't care, I'm coming back to it.  In the loop data on the last three shorter tracks (Darlington, Richmond, Bristol) Erik Jones is 4th...Blaney is 17th.  I'll keep playing Erik Jones in matchups throughout the entire Chase.

  • 21: Jimmie Johnson ov Joey Logano
  • Enough is enough...Jimmie is getting ready to kick it into high gear.  It's the Chase, and he thrives on pressure, and needing to get the job done.  I'll start by saying that Jimmie has much better loop data in the last 3 races at New Hampshire.  Jimmie's average finish 9th, Logano's average 17th.  Jimmie just averaging above Logano in the last 4 races in terms of finishing position.  In the Chase though, I'll take the guy that's in the Chase over the guy that's not in the Chase.

  • 21: Kurt Busch ov Clint Bowyer
  • Not sure why Kurt is the underdog here, but I'll take it. Kurt quietly averaging a top 8 finish in the last 4 races, Bowyer averaging 24th...Kurt averaging top 10 finish at New Hampshire the last 3 races, Bowyer averaging 22nd place finish.  Really love this pick.

  • 15: Erik Jones ov Ryan Blaney
  • After a blistering start to the season, Blaney has fallen off recently.  His loop data at Darlington, Michigan, Pocono, and Kentucky (the last 4 big tracks) ranks at 21st.  Erik Jones, meanwhile, is on the upswing, his loop data ranks fifth, and his average finish at those tracks is 5th.

  • 15: McMurray ov Bowyer
  • McMurray continues to be undervalued, and I'll take it.  He's been better than Bowyer consistently on the bigger tracks, top 10 loop data in the last 4 big tracks, where Bowyer is 16th.  

  • 15: Newman ov Suarez
  • Another guy that tends to fly under the radar, Ryan Newman has the 8th best loop data recently, and in a Chase situation, I'll take the guy that's in the Chase over the guy that's not in the Chase every day of the week. No clue why Suarez is the favorite here, but I'm happy to take it.

  • 07: Newman ov Suarez
  • Suarez has been dreadful on the small tracks this year.  Newman is a cagy veteran on these types of tracks, and with it being the last race before the Chase, I'll happily take the veteran who knows how to navigate difficult races like this.

  • 07: Erik Jones ov Ryan Blaney
  • Blaney has fallen off, where as Jones is getting better.  Jones has the best loop data in the last 3 races in all of Nascar, and Blaney is way far behind.  Blaney has also struggled on the small tracks this year, and Erik Jones has been pretty competitive.

  • 07: McMurray ov Bowyer
  • Bowyer loves this track and is great here, but McMurray is no chump, and has been better than Bowyer for most of the year.  Bowyer will try and push and take some chances for the win, so I like the consistent McMurray who has shown he can stay up front, keep on the lead lap and finish strong.

  • 01: Harvick ov Kennseth
  • Pretty simple here.  Harvick has really been coming on strong recently, and he's number one in loop data at Darlington the last couple years.

  • 01: McMurray ov Bowyer
  • McMurray has been top 5 fast this week, and Bowyer hasn't been close.  McMurray has been way better this year in loop data, particularly recently.

- August

  • 17: Stenhouse ov Dale Jr
  • Just glancing at the names, you would automatically think that Dale Jr is the favorite, and he is.  But he shouldn't be.  In the last 3 Bristol races, Stenhouse is rated 16th in loop data with an average finish of 9th.  Dale Jr rated 20th in loop data with an average finish of 20th.  And at the short tracks this year, Stenhouse 10 spots ahead of Dale Jr in loop data.  The line was at Stenhouse +115...not sure what it will be moving forward because the smart bettors will be on Stenhouse.

  • 17: Harvick ov Brad Kezelowski
  • Harvick pretty dominating in loop data here everywhere.  He's number one in the last 3 Bristol races where Brad K is all the way down there in 19th.  Brad has also really struggled at the short tracks this year.  Harvick third...Brad 17th.  Brad really seems to have extreme up and downs this season...hoping he has another downer this week.

  • 17: Truex ov Kyle Busch
  • Truex has easily been the best driver all year, and Truex is the underdog in this matchup.  Not quite sure why.  Most people think of Kyle Busch being dominant at Bristol, and he certainly has been at times...just not recently.  Last three Bristol races, he's averaged a finish outside the top 20.  Truex is number 2 in loop data the last three races here, and he's just been on fire this year.  I look for that to continue.

  • 13: McMurray ov Blaney 5dimes (Michigan)
  • Love getting McMurray here at +115.  McMurray has been good on the bigger tracks, and had a solid run at Michigan earlier this year.  Loop data looks like it's in McMurray's favor here, so to get an underdog price is great.

- July

  • 27: Blaney ov Erik Jones (Pocono)
  • Love Blaney in this matchups.  He was great at Pocono earlier this year, and on the flat bigger tracks, Blaney has been way better than Jones this year.

  • 27: Brad Keslowski ov Denny Hamlin
  • Brad much better at Indianapolis and Pocono this year than Hamlin.  Hamlin cost us a couple bets earlier when he won, but that was a combo of a very lucky pit stop, and a very lucky restart.  I'll happily take Brad at plus money in this matchup.

  • 22: Dale Jr ov Kahne 5dimes Brickyard
  • Kahne hass been atrocious this year.  His car is terrible...he's been terrible...loop data shows that Jr has been way better.  This race can be a fuel mileage race, and some weird pit strategy races, but I don't see Kahne even being on the positive end of that deal.

  • 12: Martin Truex ov Denny Hamlin 5dimes (Dover)
  • Love this matchup, and really excited to see it posted.  Truex has been dominant this year on most of the tracks, long and short.  Loop data on the shorter tracks like Martinsville, Richmond, Phoenix, etc support Truex heavily here.

  • 12: Larson ov Truex
  • Larson has been fast in practice, should've been on the pole if not for a penalty, and now has to start in the back.  He should move through the field pretty easily, and end up near the front fairly quickly.

  • 04: Hamlin ov Logano
  • Logano has struggled this year on the 1.5 mile tracks, and Hamlin has better loop data on this tracks.  On top of that, the last two races here at Kentucky Hamlin has been waaaay better.  Hamlin average finish 9th, Logano outside the top 20.

  • 04: Blaney ov Bowyer
  • Blaney has been shockingly good this year, especially on they 1.5 mile tracks.  He even got the win on a big track.  Bowyer has been decent, but Blaney much, much better in loop data on tracks similar to Kentucky.  

- June

  • 24: Kurt Busch ov Jimmie Johnson 5dimes (Sonoma)
  • Kurt is really good on road courses, and Jimmie hasn't been good here the last 2 years.  Loop data supports Kurt in this matchup over the last two races here, and Kurt has been better in practice and qualifying.

  • 13: Kennseth ov Logano 5dimes (Michigan) UPDATED AS OF SAT 17!!!
  • Logano hasn't been very good this year on the big tracks, and I don't see why that will change this week.  Getting good odds here because Logano has good track history, but I don't think he has the car this year.

    UPDATE

    Kennseth is now +115 in this matchup because he finished 2 spots behind Logano in qualifying.  I still like this matchup, not sure Logano has the car for the long run at Michigan.

  • 13: McMurray ov Jones 5dimes (Michigan)
  • McMurray very unlucky last week, but he's been really solid all year, especially on the bigger tracks, and I like him to rebound this week.  Jones has had a stellar rookie season, but I like McMurray's this week with a much improved car this year.

  • 13: Kahne ov Dale Jr. 5dimes (Michigan)
  • Love the value here at +120.  Fading Dale Jr. has been profitable, so I'll take it here as well.  Kahne qualified better, and practiced better than Jr. in final practice.

- May

  • 31: Trevor Bayne ov Paul Menard 5dimes (Dover)
  • Trevor continues to win bets with his improved car and crew this year.  He's been better than Menard on the short tracks this year...I see no reason why that doesn't continue this week.

  • 31: McMurray ov Erik Jones
  • Getting Mcmurray at plus money is great value here.  First race for Erik Jones here, so McMurray has the experience advantage.  McMurray also has better loop data on the shorter tracks this year, and was faster in the last practice and on a 10-lap average.  Great value.  

  • 24: McMurray ov Kahne
  • People remember Kahne really liking this track and having good finishes here, but that was a long time ago.  McMurray has been way better on the bigger tracks, and was better than Kahne at the All-Star race.

  • 24: Trevor Bayne ov AJ Allmendinger
  • Trevor and his team have been doing a really good job this year, and their results are showing.  12th in loop data for Trevor on big tracks, meanwhile Allmendinger is down in 27th.

  • 11: Jaime McMurray ov Erik Jones KANSAS 5dimes
  • Loop data really favors McMurray ov Jones in this spot.  McMurray has been great on the 1.5 mile and bigger tracks this year.

  • 11: Trevor Bayne ov AJ Allmendinger KANSAS 5dimes
  • Bayne has been a really nice surprise this year, and his car has been better than expected.  He's actually been extremely better than Allmendinger on the bigger tracks, so I'm happy to support him here.

- April

  • 27: Ryan Newman ov Kasey Kahne
  • Newman has been pretty good this year on the short tracks, and I like the momentum numbers on the loop data.  Kahne has been pretty bad in loop data on all the tracks this year, Newman ahead of him in total loop data numbers.

  • 19: Denny Hamlin ov Matt Kennseth (Bristol) 5dimes
  • Kennseth just hasn't been good at the shorter tracks this year, Hamlin has been better than him, and Hamlin has better loop data at Bristol over the last 4 years.

  • 19: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ov Austin Dillon (Bristol) 5dimes
  • Love getting Stenhouse at even money here.  He's sneaky good at some of these shorter tracks, has better loop data last year than Dillon, and this year at Martinsville and Phoenix, he's 8th in loop data.  I feel like every short track Stenhouse is underrated and you can get some great value.

  • 09: Over 7.5 cautions
  • 09: McMurray ov Suarez
  • 06: Kahne ov Kurt Busch +110
  • For whatever reason, Bowyers can seems to be the best car of the 4 on that team.  Kurt has been underwhelming for sure.  Kahne better in loop data by far on the bigger tracks this season.

  • 06: Bayne ov Stenhouse
  • Again, Bayne better loop data than Stenhouse on the bigger tracks this year.  Love the prices on both these plays.  Really surprised you can get them at plus money.

  • 06: Ty Dillon ov Danica Patrick
  • I can't take credit for this play.  One of my Nascar gambling buddies put me onto this one, so if you like it...I like it too, I'm going to play it and recommend it, but not claim it as my own.  Ty has been better on the intermediate tracks than Danica this year.

- March

  • 30: Chase Elliot ov Dale Jr.
  • Dale Jr talked about retirement before the season started, and he's racing like he's already retired.  Chase is young and hungry to win.  I hope they throw this matchup up every week.  All the Dale Jr. fans will be supporting him, but I think he's mentally checked out.


    WINNER

  • 30: Ryan Newman ov Kurt Busch
  • Newman is always great at this track, and it looks like he's got a really good car and team this year.  Been very impressed with him when his car isn't damaged.  I think I'll be betting on Newman a lot this year.


    WINNER

  • 26: Kahne ov Bowyer
  • LOSER

  • 26: Newman ov Suarez
  • LOSER

  • 22: Chase Elliot ov Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  • Pretty easy play here.  Chase has been running in the top 5 at the non-restrictor plate races.  Junior is 21st in loop data, and has not been very competitive.


    WINNER

  • 22: Jones ov Suarez
  • Jones lead Suarez THE ENTIRE RACE, and then got burned on the last caution when Suarez took two tires, and got to start in the fast lane on the restart, and Jones got caught behind a guy who spun his tires.  Glad they put this play back up. 


    LOSER

  • 16: Blaney ov Dillon
  • Unbelievable losses this week.  Blaney leads Dillon the whole race, then gets a speeding penalty.  Catches up and finishes one spot behind Dillon, who was terrible all day.  Hopefully, the books keep putting this matchup on the board.


    LOSER

  • 16: Erik Jones ov Suarez
  • This one hurt worse than the Blaney loss.  Jones better by far all day, Suarez comes out ahead on the last pit stop with the last caution...Jones catches up and finishes, again, one spot behind Suarez.


    LOSER

FADE SUPERCONTEST

2017

- December

  • 24: Rams -6.5
  • 24: Jags -4.5
  • 24: Saints -5.5
  • 24: Cowboys -4.5
  • 24: Titans +6.5
  • 09: Eagles +2
  • 09: Vikings -2.5
  • 09: Seahawks +2.5
  • 09: Packers -3
  • 09: Ravens +5
  • 03: Historically, this is the part of the year where the Super Contest Consensus Picks start winning.
  • The thinking is that the terrible bettors have started dropping out of the contest, and the professionals are left.  I won't be fading the picks this week, but if you're interested...here they are.  Again a lot of line movement, so it makes this picks hard.

  • 03: Buccaneers -1.5
  • Number 1 pick in the contest is Packers +1.5, but that has moved to Packers -2.5.  So if you want to fade the pick, it's Bucs +2.5 this week.

  • 03: Eagles -6
  • Number 2 picks in the contest is Seahawks +6, but that line is all the way down to Eagles -4.

  • 03: Panthers +4
  • Number 3 pick in the contest is Saints -4.  That makes the pick Panthers +4.

  • 03: Falcons -3
  • Number 4 pick in the contest is Vikings +3.  That makes the pick Falcons -3.

- November

  • 25: Jets +4.5
  • The number 1 pick in the Super Contest is Panthers -4.5, so the pick is Jets +4.5.

  • 25: Colts +3
  • The number 3 pick in the Super Contest is the Titans -3, so the pick is Colts +3.

  • 25: Cardinals +5.5
  • The number 5 pick in the Super Contest is the Jaguars -5.5, so the pick is Cardinals -5.5

  • 25: * The Saints and Rams were both selected in the Super Contest, and they play each other.
  • The picks will go 1-1, but obviously don't play both of them.  We really like the Saints +2.5 so we will bet them, and not the Rams.

  • 19: Cowboys +3.5
  • This line was released on Wednesday without the news of Tyrone Smith and Sean Lee being out.  If you're going to play this, the line is now Cowboys +7.  The Eagles -3.5 is the number 1 play of the Super Contest.

  • 19: Raiders +6.5
  • Patriots -6.5 is the number 2 play in the Super Contest, so the play is Raiders +6.5.

  • 19: Bears +2.5
  • Lions -2.5 against the Bears is the number 3 play in the Super Contest, so the play is Bears +2.5

  • 19: Rams +2
  • Vikings -2 is the number 4 play in the Super Contest so the play is Rams +2.

  • 19: Redskins +7.5
  • The number 5 play in the Super Contest is Saints -7.5, so the play is Redskins +7.5.  That line has gone up to Redskins +10.

  • 12: Saints -3
  • Number one pick in the Super Contest is Bills +3, so the pick is Saints -3.

  • 12: Chargers +3.5
  • Number two pick in the Super Contest is Jags -3.5, so the pick is Chargers +3.5.

  • 12: Vikings -1
  • Number three pick in the Super Contest is Redskins +1, so the pick is Vikings -1.

  • 12: Texans +12
  • Number four pick in the Super Contest is Rams -12, so the pick is Texans -12.

  • 12: Buccaneers +2.5
  • Number five pick in the Super Contest is Jets -2.5, so the pick is Bucs +2.5

  • 05: Texans -6.5 (I guess)
  • The lines for the Super Contest were locked in on Wednesday before the Watson injury, so the line in the contest is Colts +13.  We can't take the Texans -13, but we can take them -6.5.  So I will say that the pick this week is Texans -6.5

  • 05: Giants +3.5
  • The number 2 pick in the Super Contest is Rams -3.5, so the pick is Giants +3.5.  (I'm seeing +4.5 out there this morning)

  • 05: Chiefs +1
  • Another weird one as this line was made with the thinking that Zeke would be suspended.  He's not suspend, but again, the line was locked in Wednesday night.  So the pick is Chiefs +1, but I see Chiefs +2.5, and Chiefs +3 in some places.

  • 05: Eagles -8.5
  • The number 4 pick in the Super Contest is Broncos +8.5, so the pick is Eagles -8.5.

  • 05: Panthers -1
  • The number 5 pick in the Super Contest is Falcons +1, so the pick is Panthers -1.

- October

  • 29: Buccaneers -2
  • 29: Bears +9
  • 29: Texans +5.5
  • 29: Jets +4.5
  • 29: Patriots -7
  • 21: Steelers -5.5
  • The number 1 pick of the Super Contest is Bengals +5.5, so the play is Steelers -5.5

  • 21: Saints -5.5
  • The number 2 pick of the Super Contest is Packers +5.5, so the play is Saints -5.5.  (This was one of my plays anyway, take that for what it's worth).

  • 21: Bears +3
  • The number 3 pick of the Super Contest is Panthers -3, so the play is Bears +3.

  • 21: Chargers -1.5
  • The number 4 pick of the Super Contest is Broncos +1.5, so the play is Chargers -1.5.

  • 21: Cowboys -6.5
  • The number 5 play of the Super Contest is 49ers +6.5, so the play is Cowboys -6.5

  • 15: Chiefs -4.5
  • The number 1 play in the Super Contest is Steelers +4.5

  • 15: Vikings +3
  • The number 2 play in the Super Contest is Packers -3

  • 15: Saints -5
  • The number 3 play in the Super Contest is Lions +5

  • 15: Giants +11.5
  • The number 4 play in the Super Contest is Broncos -11.5

  • 15: Jaguars -2.5
  • The number 5 play in the Super Contest is Rams +2.5.

  • 08: Carolina +2.5
  • Detroit -2.5 is the number one pick in the super contest.  The fade pick is Carolina +2.5

  • 08: Chiefs pk
  • Houston is the number 3 pick in the super contest.  The fade pick is Chiefs pk.

  • 08: Seahawks +1
  • Rams are the number 4 pick in the super contest.  The fade pick is Seahawks +1

  • 08: Never seen this before ever in this strategy...
  • The number 2 pick this week in the super contest is Bengals -3.  The number 5 pick this week in the super contest is the Bills +3.  They both play each other.  Never seen this one before.  Obviously, don't play both, but I'll put both these plays in the final results, so it will be 1-1 in the overall record.


    I love the Bills here.  It was my upset special.

- September

  • 27: Washington Redskins
  • Number 1 pick in the Super Contest was Oakland, so the pick is the Redskins.

  • 27: Buffalo Bills
  • Number 2 picks in the Super Contest was Denver, so the pick is the Bills.

  • 27: Los Angeles Chargers
  • Number 3 picks in the Super Contest was Kansas City, so the picks is the Chargers.

  • 27: Carolina Panthers
  • Number 4 picks in the Super Contest was the Saints, so the pick is the Panthers.

  • 27: Tennessee Titans
  • Number 5 pick in the Super Contest was the Seahawks, so the pick is the Titans.

  • 17: #1 pick in Supercontest is Titans pk at Jaguars
  • That makes the pick:  Jaguars pk vs Titans

  • 17: #2 pick in Supercontest is Steelers -7 vs Vikings
  • *This pick is weird because of the Bradford injury.  Not sure where the line will end up tomorrow based on Bradfords availability because he's a game time decision...


    But the pick is Vikings +7 at Steelers

  • 17: #3 pick in the Supercontest is Packers +3 at Falcons
  • This makes the pick Falcons +3 vs Packers

  • 17: #4 pick in the Supercontest is Patriots -7 at Saints
  • That makes the pick Saints +7.

  • 17: #5 pick in the Supercontest is Cowboys -2
  • That makes the pick Broncos +2 vs Cowboys.

  • 10: Ravens +2.5 ov Bengals
  • The number one play in the super contest is the Bengals, so the fade strategy is to take the Ravens.

  • 10: Jaguars +5 at Texans
  • The number two play in the super contest is the Texans, so the fade strategy is to take the Jaguars.

  • 10: Raiders +2.5 at Titans
  • The number three play in the super contest is the Titans, so the fade strategy is to take the Raiders.

  • 10: Bears +6.5 vs. Falcons
  • The number four play in the super contest is the Falcons, so the fade strategy is to take the Bears.

  • 10: Lions +2 vs. Cardinals
  • The number five play in the super contest is the Cardinals, so the fade strategy is to take the Lions.